Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 29 August 2025
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Pakenham Synthetic. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Elsa Of Arendelle brings the strongest form into this race, having competed at Group 3 level. The significant class drop and light weight of 55kg make her a strong winning chance, despite the long break and first time on synthetic.
Act Natural has been knocking on the door with three placings from four starts. While yet to break through for a win, his consistency and ability to carry weight make him a strong place chance.
Unsnoozual comes into this race with recent form, having placed second just 17 days ago. The competitive weight and recent run give him a solid chance in this field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Bama Slama | 2 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $20.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Act Natural | 8 | Daniel Stackhouse | P Stokes | 59.5kg | $2.50 |
| 3rd | 6 | Parak | 6 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Brutal World | 7 | Liam Riordan | Simon Zahra | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Elsa Of Arendelle | 10 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 55kg | $2.05 |
| 6th | 4 | Highland Belle | 3 | Nadia Daniels | Saab Hasan | 54.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Show Place | 1 | Patrick Moloney | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Golden Eyes | 4 | Carleen Hefel | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Unsnoozual | 9 | M M Laurie | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Catwalk Icon | 5 | T & C McEvoy | 55kg |
Pleasing Smile appears well-prepared for a strong debut. Well-drawn for a tactical advantage, the Hayes stable's strong record with debutants adds confidence. While unraced, the overall profile points to a leading chance.
The consistent class level and engagement of E J Walsh are positives. The main query is adapting to the synthetic surface.
The inside draw and addition of winkers could spark improvement. However, the long break and unplaced record are concerns. The class drop and potential for improvement make him a legitimate contender.
While unplaced on debut, the long break and gear change could see a much-improved performance. Represents speculative value.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Magick Media | 9 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Brave Danza | 6 | E J Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 58kg | $1.95 |
| 3rd | 1 | Blue Ensign | 2 | Luke Currie | S J Richards | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Pleasing Smile | 3 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 5th | 5 | Pierrobid | 7 | Ben Allen | S J Richards | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Sports Mode | 1 | Jett Stanley | Nathan Dunn | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Gregoly | 5 | Luke Nolen | P Stokes | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Hopkins Star | 4 | Amy Herrmann | P D Graesser | 56kg | $151.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Camegitchee | 8 | Lachlan Neindorf | S P Nichols | 56kg | $21.00 |
While yet to break through for a win, the gelding's consistent form and improving trend suggest today could be the day. Well-weighted and suited to the synthetic surface, he looks primed to finally secure a victory.
The weight relief as a mare is advantageous, and she should be suited by the likely fast tempo. While yet to win, her form suggests she's knocking on the door for a breakthrough victory.
As a likely leader in a race that may favor on-pace runners, he could prove hard to run down.
While yet to win, he has been consistent at this class level and the gear change could spark improvement.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Leaving Las Vegas | 6 | Lachlan Neindorf | P Stokes | 59.5kg | $1.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Celestial Option | 3 | Lachlan King | R K Challis | 59.5kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Smart Moves | 5 | Zac Spain | Dennis Julius | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Gemofsixteencarats | 1 | Brad Rawiller | Logan McGill | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Midnight In Minori | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | Clayton Douglas | 57.5kg | $3.70 |
| 6th | 5 | Nikephoros | 2 | Beau Mertens | D M Noonan | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Seeking Prophet | 8 | Dylan Dunn | Dylan Dunn | 57.5kg | $71.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Paltrow | 9 | Jett Stanley | Michael Jones | 59.5kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Attack Force | 4 | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Setheus | 10 | D T O''Brien | 59.5kg |
The significant class drop from his last start suggests he's well-placed to break through for a maiden win. While unproven on synthetic, his adaptability across various track conditions is encouraging.
Cuban Dawn has been knocking on the door with consistent placings and experience at both the track and distance. The booking of Carleen Hefel is a positive, and his recent form suggests he's ready to win.
The booking of Brad Rawiller is a significant positive. However, he's yet to prove himself over this distance, which introduces some uncertainty. His overall record is less consistent than the top two picks, but there's potential for further improvement.
Luke Nolen in the saddle adds further appeal.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Marlin | 8 | Ben Allen | Paul Worthington | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 6 | Phoenician | 3 | Brad Rawiller | E W Ewert | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Marquisard | 7 | Jett Stanley | Phillip Cafarella | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Cuban Dawn | 4 | Carleen Hefel | David & Coral Feek | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Grassy Spur | 6 | Lachlan King | F Stockdale | 59.5kg | $2.50 |
| 6th | 1 | Clydebank Robber | 2 | Sally Wynne | Susie Wells | 59.5kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Stars And Spangles | 1 | Jordan Childs | D T O''Brien | 59.5kg | $9.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Pride Of Pariah | 5 | Luke Nolen | Patrick Keane | 59.5kg | $9.00 |
The significant class drop from BM70 to BM64 is a major advantage. While carrying top weight, his consistency and proven ability at the distance make him the top selection. The synthetic surface should suit based on his record.
Jewel Bay has shown consistent form in recent starts and gets a significant weight drop here. His adaptability in running style is a plus given the likely fast tempo.
Tasman Park benefits from a good barrier draw and a drop in class. His consistent place record and proven ability at the distance are positives. While he hasn't won at this track, his overall form suggests he should be competitive. The inside barrier could be crucial if the predicted fast tempo eventuates.
Auto Max presents as an intriguing value option. While facing a significant class rise, his potential for improvement and the light weight make him an interesting longshot in this field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Dark Journey | 1 | Zac Spain | Jason Warren | 60.5kg | $8.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Il Cubo | 6 | Jordan Childs | Reece Goodwin | 62kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 5 | Jewel Bay | 8 | Daniel Stackhouse | Andrea Leek | 60kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Marlion''s Dream | 7 | Luke Nolen | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 58.5kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Rock The Bar | 3 | Jamie Mott | D T O''Brien | 61kg | $9.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Auto Max | 9 | Sally Wynne | Susie Wells | 57kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Jackie''s Maid | 11 | Daniel Moor | Mitchell Freedman | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 4 | Tasman Park | 2 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60.5kg | $6.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Spoken Heiress | 4 | Nadia Daniels | A W Noonan | 52kg | $51.00 |
| 9 | Typhoon Tony | 10 | Teodore Nugent | Simone Walker | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Very Grateful | 5 | G Eurell | 55kg |
Well-weighted and drawn favorably, the mare should be suited by the expected fast tempo. While first-up on synthetic is a query, her class and ability suggest she can overcome this challenge.
Nic's Choice comes off a recent win and shows an improving trend. Well-suited to the distance and drawn well, he presents as a strong contender. The class rise is the main concern, but his upward trajectory suggests he can be competitive here.
Austrata brings consistent form and a strong track/distance record. Likely to lead, which suits the expected race shape. However, the top weight and potential pressure from other on-pace runners are concerns. Still, his class and experience make him a solid contender.
Zeshadow offers value based on her recent winning form over this track and distance. The improving trend and good weight are positives.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Austrata | 7 | Ben Allen | Reece Goodwin | 60kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 3 | Nic''s Choice | 4 | Daniel Stackhouse | J F Moloney | 60kg | $2.90 |
| 3rd | 8 | You Never Can Tell | 6 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 59kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Super Solar | 5 | Jamie Mott | Reece Goodwin | 63kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 9 | Zeshadow | 9 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Norwoods | 1 | Adam Mc Cabe | Rachael Cunningham | 60kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Both Sides Now | 2 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 59.5kg | $4.60 |
| Scr | 6 | Autumn Slide | 8 | Simon Zahra | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Mercante | 3 | N A Blackiston | 59kg |
Laa De Sha presents as the top selection with a solid win rate, strong synthetic track form, and consistent recent performances. The horse is well-weighted and drawn favorably in barrier 4, which should allow for a positive position in running. While facing a slight class rise, recent form suggests competitiveness at this level.
The consistent form and good weight allocation are positives. However, the wider barrier draw and class rise present challenges. The lack of synthetic track experience is a concern, but overall form suggests competitiveness.
Naval Academy comes off a strong 2nd place finish and boasts an impressive record at the 1200m distance. The lightweight allocation of 57kg is favorable, and the horse's consistency is a significant asset. The main concerns are the wide barrier and lack of synthetic track experience, but overall form suggests a strong chance.
The mare is dropping in class from recent runs and has a strong record at the 1200m distance. The good barrier draw should allow for a positive position in running. While lacking synthetic track experience and carrying top weight, the class drop and consistency make her an interesting value proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Charcoals | 11 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 11 | Xarpo | 7 | Liam Riordan | Simon Zahra | 55kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Laa De Sha | 4 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 4th | 12 | Nation State | 1 | Beau Mertens | J F Moloney | 55kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Luna Cat | 3 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 1 | Namesake | 9 | Zoe Waller | C Maher | 57.5kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Intrepid Eagle | 2 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 59kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Bold Print | 6 | Lachlan Neindorf | Rachael Cunningham | 58kg | $18.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Ruminate | 5 | Emily Pozman | Matthew Cumani | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 10th | 13 | Duel Venture | 12 | Jett Stanley | G Eurell | 55kg | $16.00 |
| 11th | 10 | Shaime | 8 | Nadia Daniels | C I Brown | 52kg | $17.00 |
| 12th | 6 | Freak Of Nature | 14 | Zac Spain | Jason Warren | 58.5kg | $17.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Naval Academy | 13 | C Maher | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Perfect Picture | 10 | G M Begg | 55kg |
Saveadateforme has excellent synthetic track form and consistent recent performances. The slight class rise is offset by its proven ability on this surface and distance.
Proshow is showing improving form and has a strong record on synthetic tracks. While facing a class rise, the combination of track suitability and weight advantage makes it a strong contender.
Kentucky Nick brings consistent form and class to this race. With a good record at the distance and a strong jockey booking, he's a serious contender. The top weight is a concern, but his class and consistency make him a threat.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Saveadateforme | 3 | Ben Allen | Charlotte Littlefield | 57.5kg | $2.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Dun Wondering | 5 | E J Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Kentucky Nick | 7 | Cian Macredmond | T & C McEvoy | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Proshow | 8 | Beau Mertens | Jason Warren | 55kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 8 | Tavistock Dancer | 2 | Amy Herrmann | M & L Cerchi | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Shockstar | 1 | Luke Currie | M M Laurie | 55kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 4 | Outcaster | 4 | Nadia Daniels | Rachael Cunningham | 52kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Golden Hips | 6 | Jason Warren | 55kg |
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