Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Tuesday 7 October 2025
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Newcastle. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
The inside draw (barrier 2) is ideal with the current track bias favoring inside barriers. Second-up from a spell with top jockey Regan Bayliss aboard, she should get the perfect run midfield with a very fast tempo predicted. The John Thompson stable is in good form and this mare looks ready to peak.
Mariko shapes as one of the likely leaders in a race with very fast predicted tempo. Drawn in barrier 5 which is still within the advantageous inside range on this track, and has experienced jockey L Magorrian aboard. The M S Minervini stable has been in good form recently. Main query is whether this debutant can sustain effort with top weight.
Alaskan Bay has drawn the perfect barrier 1 which is highly advantageous with the current track bias. Likely to be on pace in a race with very fast predicted tempo. The N J Rogers stable has been in good form recently. Main query is whether this debutant can sustain effort with top weight of 59kg in a race with strong tempo.
With 13 career starts including 3 placings, she brings more experience than most in this field. The advantageous barrier 3 draw with the current inside bias is a significant positive, as is the light weight of 53kg. William Stanley knows the horse well and should be able to position her better than usual in this shorter sprint. Main query is her tendency to get back in running.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Whil To Win | 2 | Regan Bayliss | John Thompson | 55.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Mariko | 5 | L Magorrian | M S Minervini | 59kg | $1.60 |
| 3rd | 4 | Cosmora | 7 | Grant Buckley | Peter D Green | 56kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Dandeelion Wishes | 4 | Ms M Weir | P J Evans | 55.5kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Sammy The Bull | 9 | Benjamin Osmond | Tanya Randell | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Kermalicious | 3 | William Stanley | S J Hodge | 53kg | $7.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Orphan Ellie | 8 | Shannen Llewellyn | Damien Smith | 52kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Alaskan Bay | 1 | Anna Roper | N J Rogers | 59kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Yes Yes Boss | 6 | Carlos Antonio | 55kg |
The engagement of top provincial rider Dylan Gibbons is significant, and the application of blinkers first-up suggests connections expect a forward showing. Drawn to get a perfect midfield position in a race with likely good tempo.
Drawn perfectly in barrier 3 with Christian Reith aboard, she should get an economical run just behind the speed.
First starter from the in-form Nathan Doyle yard who has engaged quality rider Ashley Morgan. Drawn well in barrier 5 to secure a good position. Stable mate Emalyn has shown ability in recent starts, suggesting the stable has their juveniles well-prepared.
Second-up today where improvement is expected, and drops significantly in class from previous assignments.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Emalyn | 12 | Jean Van Overmeire | Nathan Doyle | 55kg | $9.00 |
| 2nd | 11 | Blue Eyed Brigid | 3 | Christian Reith | Brad Widdup | 55kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Sara''s Rocket | 13 | Benjamin Osmond | M S Minervini | 55.5kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 10 | Logan Downs | 8 | Dylan Gibbons | K A Lees | 56.5kg | $2.70 |
| 5th | 1 | Cogitare | 2 | Mollie Fitzgerald | M S Minervini | 57kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Winters Ending | 4 | Grant Buckley | Nick Mitchell | 59kg | $151.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Dodgy Freckle | 11 | Brad Widdup | 57kg | $41.00 | |
| 8th | 7 | Keinbah''s Gift | 7 | Shannen Llewellyn | Damien Smith | 54kg | $151.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Lobbyist | 5 | Ashley Morgan | Nathan Doyle | 55kg | $4.80 |
| 10th | 2 | Rodeo Dealer | 10 | William Stanley | Nikki Hodgson | 57kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Focus Point | 1 | M S Minervini | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Hard Rattle | 6 | G McFarlane | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | The Final Say | 9 | S J Hodge | 57kg |
The significant class drop from previous races is a major positive, having competed in stronger maidens. Drawn well in barrier 4 with the rail out 7m, she should get a perfect run in midfield. The Marc & Mitchell Conners stable has her ready to fire fresh.
Lightning Glory debuts for the in-form Nathan Doyle stable with quality jockey Ashley Morgan aboard. Expected to show good early speed and likely lead from barrier 13, though will need to work across. Should set a strong tempo that suits his racing pattern.
El Toro Macho debuts for the powerful Ciaron Maher stable with leading provincial jockey Dylan Gibbons aboard - a significant booking. The tongue tie first time suggests breathing improvement has been identified in trackwork or trials. Expected to push forward from barrier 10 and be on speed.
The Ryan/Alexiou stable has engaged Mitchell Bell from an advantageous inside barrier (2). The blinkers off gear change suggests they're looking for improvement in focus. While first-up from a 210-day spell, her previous second-up record (1:0-1-0) suggests she can improve with this run under her belt.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Lightning Glory | 13 | Ashley Morgan | Nathan Doyle | 59kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 9 | Micro Magic | 4 | Deanne Panya | Marc & Mitchell Conners | 56kg | $2.35 |
| 3rd | 1 | El Toro Macho | 10 | Dylan Gibbons | C Maher | 59kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 8 | Aweigh | 2 | Mitchell Bell | G Ryan & S Alexiou | 56kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Coyote | 7 | Grant Buckley | Peter D Green | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 14 | The Final Say | 1 | William Stanley | S J Hodge | 53kg | $151.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Eddie''s Charm | 5 | Jay Ford | D Riley | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Focus Point | 6 | Christian Reith | M S Minervini | 57kg | $71.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Take A Break | 9 | Kacie Adams | A P Ball | 55kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Babyfaced Assassin | 8 | G Portelli | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Cogitare | 3 | M S Minervini | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Sara''s Rocket | 12 | M S Minervini | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Keinbah''s Gift | 14 | Damien Smith | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Rodeo Dealer | 11 | Nikki Hodgson | 55kg |
The inside draw is perfect for this short-course sprint, and he drops slightly in class from his last start. While he was disappointing last time out, the quick backup and 3kg claim from Siena Grima should help him bounce back to his best form.
Power Of The Brave returns from a spell with a strong first-up record and previous success at this track and distance. His consistent form (22: 4-3-4) and good barrier draw position him well for this race.
His advantageous barrier draw and consistent place record (58: 6-11-9) make him a solid each-way prospect. However, his poor record at Newcastle (0 wins from 10 starts) is concerning. The engagement of Jay Ford is a positive, but he looks more of a place chance than a winner.
The lightweight of 52kg is a significant advantage, and his record at this distance (15: 1-4-1) suggests he can be competitive. While he's never won at Newcastle from 15 attempts, he has placed 4 times at the track over this distance.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Power Of The Brave | 3 | William Stanley | K A Lees | 60kg | $2.10 |
| 2nd | 2 | No Statement | 1 | Siena Grima | M F Van Gestel | 58kg | $2.10 |
| 3rd | 4 | Markwell Dreamer | 2 | Jay Ford | Joseph Burges | 55kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Princess Cruizer | 7 | Regan Bayliss | P M Perry | 56kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Super Freds | 8 | Shannen Llewellyn | Jay Hopkins | 52kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Sapphire Kiss | 5 | Reece Jones | Wayne Seelin | 55kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Desirous | 6 | Ms M Weir | R Lomax | 55kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Parmenio | 4 | Carlos Antonio | 55kg |
Buckenara brings solid credentials as a second-up runner with a previous placing in that pattern. While yet to win, he's shown consistency with placings and should be suited by the conditions. The weight is a concern but class suggests he can handle it.
Jonson presents as an interesting prospect first-up from a spell after being gelded. The significant class drop from Group 2 company is a major positive, and the Bjorn Baker stable excels with these types. The good barrier draw gives tactical options, and the gelding operation could be the making of him. While unproven at the track, the combination of factors suggests improvement.
Sweltering brings the strongest form credentials, dropping dramatically from Group 1 racing where she placed second in the Australasian Oaks. Her second-up pattern is positive with a previous placing in that pattern. The class drop is significant and should see her break through.
Where's My Halo represents excellent value given her consistent improvement and strong last-start second placing. She's shown versatility across track conditions and should be suited by the middle barrier draw. While she's yet to win, her upward trajectory suggests she's ready to peak third-up from a spell. The addition of bubble cheeker gear could be the final piece of the puzzle.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Buckenara | 1 | Dylan Gibbons | John O''Shea & Tom Charlton | 59kg | $1.85 |
| 2nd | 10 | Where''s My Halo | 5 | Mitchell Bell | R J Quinton | 57kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Switz | 8 | Regan Bayliss | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Copartner Pegasus | 4 | Chad Lever | Stephen O''Halloran | 59kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Hard Knock Life | 10 | Jean Van Overmeire | Ms R Dunn | 57kg | $20.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Feelen Corny | 7 | Shannen Llewellyn | Damien Smith | 56kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 7 | The Matrix | 2 | Ms M Weir | Julia Presits | 59kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Jonson | 3 | Ashley Morgan | Bjorn Baker | 59kg | |
| Scr | 5 | King Of The Ring | 6 | Jay Ford | David Pfieffer | 59kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Sweltering | 9 | Zac Lloyd | C J Waller | 57kg |
Autumn Blonde represents excellent value dropping back from Group 2 company where she wasn't disgraced. The class drop is significant and should see her very competitive at this level.
Koios brings solid credentials with a strong record at Newcastle and excellent performance on Good tracks. The inside barrier is a significant advantage given the track bias. While first-up from a spell, his place record suggests he'll be competitive, though the top weight is a concern.
Tong Ho is a progressive 3YO showing excellent recent form with a win and a second from his last three starts. While rising in class, his upward trajectory suggests he can be competitive.
While first-up from a spell, he's shown ability to perform fresh with a third placing. His second-up record is perfect with a win from one attempt, suggesting he could improve sharply next start.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Amaretto Bo | 6 | Jay Ford | Richard Litt | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Koios | 1 | Grant Buckley | Nacim Dilmi | 59kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 3 | Valiant Bomb | 4 | Jean Van Overmeire | J & G Lee | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 2 | Autumn Blonde | 8 | Mitch Stapleford | J G Sargent | 56kg | $3.30 |
| 5th | 5 | Tong Ho | 5 | Ashley Morgan | G Portelli | 56.5kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 8 | Paji Briway | 7 | Madeline Owen | Wayne Seelin | 52kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Devious Mind | 3 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Albert O''Hearn | 54kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Baycat | 2 | J M Austin | 56kg |
Orthie's Boys brings the strongest combination of form and consistency to this race. With 3 wins from 10 starts and a 50% place rate, he's shown ability across varying conditions. His last start 5th at Randwick in BM72 company reads well for this drop back to BM64. Well-drawn in barrier 5 and carrying a manageable 60.5kg, he should get an ideal run just off the pace in a race with strong tempo.
Surreal I Am comes off a last-start win over this course and distance on September 19, which is a significant positive. With a career record of 4 wins from 16 starts, he's shown ability, and his recent form is trending upward. The inside draw (barrier 2) is advantageous at Newcastle, and William Stanley takes the ride for the in-form Kris Lees stable. While rising in class is a concern, his last win suggests he's ready for the challenge.
Bellenth brings solid credentials with a win and placing from his last three starts. His Newcastle win on August 26 in heavy conditions shows his versatility, and he's proven at this track with a record of 1-0-1 from 3 starts. Jay Ford retains the ride, and while barrier 13 isn't ideal, his adaptable racing style should allow him to find a position midfield and finish strongly in a race with good tempo.
His recent form includes a 5th in BM74 company at Scone, which reads well for this drop to BM64. With a record of 1-0-2 from 10 starts at Newcastle, he knows the track well. The wide barrier (16) is the main concern, but with the expected fast tempo, he should get his chance to finish strongly.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | All Hunky Dory | 12 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Adam Duggan | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | Orthie''s Boys | 5 | Regan Bayliss | G McFarlane | 60.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 9 | Run Rory Run | 11 | Teighan Worsnop | A P Ball | 58.5kg | $19.00 |
| 4th | 15 | Jessandi | 3 | Christian Reith | J C Deamer | 55.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Scotland | 8 | Madeline Owen | Ms K Owen | 55.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Like Lukey | 10 | Aaron Bullock | K A Lees | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 13 | Ollie''s Secret | 16 | Anna Roper | Ms J Bowen | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Surreal I Am | 2 | William Stanley | K A Lees | 58.5kg | $4.80 |
| 9th | 2 | Subarctic | 18 | Angus Villiers | Matthew Smith | 61.5kg | $16.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Shuri | 15 | Dylan Gibbons | K A Lees | 57.5kg | $14.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Mission Bravo | 4 | L Magorrian | Adam Duggan | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 12th | 14 | River Pat | 1 | Ashley Morgan | Ms K Waugh | 56kg | $10.00 |
| 13th | 4 | Final Reset | 6 | Mitch Stapleford | Matthew Smith | 59kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Bellenth | 13 | Jay Ford | Ms K Waugh | 61kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Release Point | 17 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Mediaro | 9 | Matthew Smith | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Star Legacy | 7 | G Portelli | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Artelimar | 14 | Carlos Antonio | 55kg |
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