Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Thursday 15 January 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Seymour. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Insolence represents the safest selection despite complete absence of form data. The McEvoy stable paired with Currie shows strong synergy at 19%. Four first-time gear changes signal targeted preparation. The 58kg top weight indicates stable belief.
Jacaranda appeals as the Hayes stable's second runner with tactical advantages. Barrier 5 keeps her within the favoured inside zone while allowing settling options. First-time ear muffs often improve tractability and focus - a positive indicator when combined with lugging bit. The midfield likely position suits if pace is genuine. Metropolitan stable raiding country meeting adds appeal.
Mirador completes the Hayes stable's dual assault with identical gear changes to Jacaranda (ear muffs, lugging bit first time). However, the critical negative is Dee selecting Jacaranda over Mirador - a telling indicator of stable preference. The 56kg bottom weight versus Insolence's 58kg confirms lower expectations.
Barrier 2 is near-perfect for inside bias exploitation. The critical weakness is zero form data and a modest 7% O'Brien/Childs partnership record.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Jacaranda | 5 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $2.40 |
| 2nd | 6 | South Yarra Miss | 2 | Jordan Childs | D T O'Brien | 56kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Insolence | 1 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $1.85 |
| Scr | 2 | Bella Blaze | 4 | Jye McNeil | Patrick & Michelle Payne | 56kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Mirador | 3 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Mystery Fingers | 3 | P Kearney | 56kg |
Gaeilge presents as the standout form selection based on significant class drop from Group 3 and Sydney open company to country maiden level. The gelding has contested far stronger races than today's opposition, running creditably in Listed and Group 3 events. Recent form shows two placings from three starts including narrow second at Warwick Farm. Soft track record (2:0-1-0) is a major positive for today's Soft 6 surface. Cross-over nose band addition and gelding suggests focus improvement. Jamie Mott's 25% recent strike rate adds confidence.
Bourdeto represents the speculative stable runner angle with Hayes/Dee combination (13% strike rate) providing credibility. Hayes stable typically has debutants well-prepared for provincial assignments. However, complete form absence creates major uncertainty, particularly regarding soft track handling on Soft 6 surface. Barrier 10 compounds difficulty for debut runner. Risky proposition but Hayes stable warrants respect in provincial maidens.
Tallingas Immortal appeals as the consistent, race-fit alternative with significant class drop from Sandown/Caulfield open company. Two narrow seconds from last three starts demonstrate readiness, while soft track record (3:0-0-1) suits today's Soft 6 surface. The filly has contested stronger races than today's maiden field, providing genuine class advantage. Gear changes (cross-over nose band, front pads) indicate stable expects improvement.
However, 276-day break raises serious fitness queries, while complete absence of wet track experience (0:0-0-0 soft/heavy) creates major risk on today's Soft 6 surface.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Gaeilge | 9 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 58kg | $1.20 |
| 2nd | 4 | Ironic Fortune | 6 | Mitchell Aitken | S V Brown | 58kg | $20.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | See No City | 1 | Cory Parish | G R McQueen | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Last Piece | 3 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Wembley Stadium | 2 | Ryan Houston | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 58kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Bluey Merchant | 7 | Bailey Kinninmont | D Meagher | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Mahmudah | 4 | Jake Duffy | Ms H Powell | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 8 | Wayne's Dream | 5 | Rose Hammond | Ms G Johnstone | 56kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Bourdeto | 10 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Tallingas Immortal | 8 | Milos Bunjevac | Matthew Hahne | 56kg |
Mid-range barrier suits her racing pattern. While winless from 7 starts is a concern, the consistent placing (29% place rate) and current trajectory suggest she's due to break through. Represents solid place value.
Winter Hail represents genuine wet track expertise with proven form on Soft (0-1-0) and Heavy (0-0-1) surfaces. Most importantly, the gelding placed at Seymour on Soft, showing course suitability. McNeil riding at peak form (25% strike rate) and the addition of winkers first time suggests potential improvement.
Silver Bullet presents as the standout second-up runner with clear improvement trajectory. Trainer Littlefield's 14% strike rate with Allen is significant, and the gelding's limited exposure (2 starts) suggests considerable upside.
The inside barrier is crucial at Seymour, allowing forward positioning without cover concerns. Heavy track failure is noted, but Soft 6 is manageable.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Mr Epozino | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | Simon Zahra | 58kg | $19.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Rumble Town | 16 | Jordan Childs | D T O'Brien | 58kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Fort Of Dreams | 5 | Logan Bates | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Oceanella | 9 | Teodore Nugent | Simon Zahra | 57.5kg | $2.40 |
| 5th | 1 | Chainsaw | 4 | Brad Rawiller | Ms R Hoysted | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Winter Hail | 13 | Jye McNeil | P McVicar | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 17 | Olympiad | 12 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 13 | Shows No Shame | 15 | Patrick Moloney | S V Brown | 56kg | $15.00 |
| 9th | 14 | Sweet Farnan | 1 | Jake Duffy | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | $4.40 |
| 10th | 11 | Wetland | 3 | Cory Parish | T G Eurell | 57.5kg | $71.00 |
| 11th | 16 | Andauto | 8 | Cian Macredmond | Ms P Reeve | 58kg | $201.00 |
| 12th | 15 | Gift | 10 | Logan McNeil | T G Eurell | 59.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Terrortorian | 6 | Michael Dee | Nick Ryan | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Costa Paros | 14 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Silver Bullet | 17 | Ben Allen | Charlotte Littlefield | 58kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Share The Stars | 2 | Shane Foley | W Morrissey | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Celtic Viva | 18 | Celine Gaudray | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | |
| Scr | 18 | Sweet Armani | 11 | T Fitzsimmons | 57.5kg |
Kaddari presents as the most credible winning chance based on pure form metrics. The mare has been consistently placing at higher grade (Caulfield, Sandown, Pakenham) and drops back to maiden provincial level. While winless, her form pattern shows steady improvement and she's been competitive against stronger opposition than she faces today. Jamie Mott's excellent recent form (5 wins from 20) adds further confidence.
Octane Reign represents legitimate place prospects with scope for further improvement. The 3yo gelding's recent Geelong third over 1530m provides ideal platform, and the step to 1600m suits his pedigree perfectly (by Needs Further). Strong Warren/Stackhouse combination (30% strike rate) is significant positive, as is the weight advantage carrying 58kg versus older rivals on 59.5kg. Barrier 7 gives tactical options in what shapes as genuinely-run race. Main concern is his 0-from-6 record and moderate soft track form, but class appears suited to maiden provincial level.
Sungazer relies heavily on stable credentials and gear change rather than demonstrated form. The McEvoy stable commands respect and tongue tie addition first time suggests they've identified an issue and expect improvement. Harry Coffey's strong recent riding (20% strike rate) provides confidence, and second-up placement often sees horses sharpen. Wide barrier works against him given track bias. This is more about stable faith than current evidence.
Recent form is genuinely poor (9th, 10th), but barrier 3 positions her perfectly within the favoured inside zone. The Noble stable combination is concerning (1% strike rate), but in maiden races, one good beginning can change everything. Small value investment recommended.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Octane Reign | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | Jason Warren | 58kg | $2.80 |
| 2nd | 9 | Kaddari | 1 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 8 | Sungazer | 9 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 1 | I Am Titan | 10 | Will Gordon | T G Eurell | 59.5kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Something Super | 11 | Craig Atkinson | Garry Murphy | 59.5kg | $51.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Tassadar | 6 | Liana Wood | Aaron Laing | 55.5kg | $16.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Nan's Rebel | 2 | Jason Maskiell | Charlotte Littlefield | 59.5kg | $4.60 |
| 8th | 2 | My Schieller Wood | 5 | Koby Jennings | S V Brown | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Palentine Princess | 4 | Teodore Nugent | C J Davis | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Sarazain | 3 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 5 | Stormyfriendship | 8 | Paul Gatt | Mark Ashby | 59.5kg | $201.00 |
While the soft track record (1:1-0-0 from 7 starts) raises minor concern, the class edge and tactical advantage from the inside gate should prove decisive. The recent gear change removing blinkers suggests a more conservative racing pattern, which suits the likely fast tempo.
The key positive is her track specialization, having won twice at this venue including over 1600m in November. However, her poor soft track record (0 from 2 starts) is a critical negative on today's Soft 6 surface.
The gelding is second up from a 69-day spell and historically shows improvement second-up. The 50% place strike rate demonstrates remarkable consistency.
The Jerome Hunter-trained gelding brings strong credentials including excellent 1600m form (14:3-1-3) and proven soft track ability (12:2-3-1) perfect for today's Soft 6 surface. The combination of class drop, track condition suitability, and barrier advantage creates an overlay opportunity.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Macedon Rose | 9 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Just Jenni | 5 | Jordan Childs | Lloyd Kennewell | 56kg | $3.60 |
| 3rd | 1 | Magarten | 2 | Jamie Mott | Jerome Hunter | 61.5kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 2 | Maktoob | 11 | Billy Egan | Simon Zahra | 61kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Freak Of Nature | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Jason Warren | 59.5kg | $4.60 |
| 6th | 3 | Ballon D'or | 7 | Sarah Field | C J Cassar | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Pennine Way | 6 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 8th | 10 | Kowhai | 3 | Cory Parish | Lee & Shannon Hope | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Russian Roni | 10 | Teodore Nugent | Ms R Kelly | 60kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Gold Relay | 8 | Chelsea Taylor | Glen Gascoyne | 54kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Austrata | 4 | Ben Allen | Reece Goodwin | 59.5kg |
The Sweeney represents the progressive type stepping up sharply after breaking through at Echuca. Barrier 9 suits his mid-pack racing style on Seymour's spacious layout.
Divine Thoughts offers each-way value despite recent form wobbles. The McEvoy/Coffey partnership is statistically strong, and the tongue tie addition suggests connections expect improvement. Barrier 8 provides tactical options, though the step to 2021m and soft track conditions present legitimate concerns. Her recent form decline is worrying but elite connections and gear change warrant respect.
Talent Scout represents the improving 3yo angle with scope beyond four career starts. The McEvoy stable excels with progressive types, and his Listed race exposure provides class credentials. The step from 1600m to 2021m is substantial but fits his staying pedigree. Wide barrier 13 is mitigated by Seymour's spacious layout, though he'll need tactical luck from backmarker position.
Last start's 3rd over 2000m here shows she handles both track and distance, while her heavy track win proves adaptability. The wide barrier is concerning but Seymour's spacious 1800m circuit with 400m straight minimizes this disadvantage.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Warchime | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | Brett Scott | 61kg | $16.00 |
| 2nd | 13 | Convo | 1 | Michael Dee | C Maher | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Donegal Soul | 6 | Brittany Button | Liam Howley | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 16 | Vadarchie | 2 | Liana Wood | Aaron Laing | 53.5kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Vizie | 16 | Nadia Daniels | Chris Calthorpe | 57kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Macy Moon | 11 | Lachlan King | G W Egan | 62kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Cinque Ponte | 3 | Jake Noonan | A W Noonan | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 8th | 11 | The Sweeney | 9 | Jye McNeil | P McVicar | 58kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Intuitu | 12 | Koby Jennings | Alexander Rae | 62kg | $16.00 |
| 10th | 15 | Everett | 4 | Teodore Nugent | M A Bell | 55.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 10 | Talent Scout | 13 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $4.60 |
| 12th | 6 | Divine Thoughts | 8 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 13th | 5 | Lika Wreckin' Ball | 14 | Cory Parish | J G Symons & S Laxon | 60kg | $11.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Avenues | 5 | Bailey Kinninmont | M C Kent | 59kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Sinhalese | 15 | Caitlin Hollowood | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Our Paramour | 17 | Craig Newitt | M W Walker | 58kg | |
| Scr | 17 | Tactfull | 10 | Sam Kennedy | Rory Hunter | 55kg |
The 4YO mare has proven soft track ability (1-1-0 from 3 starts) and draws perfectly in barrier 2 on a track favouring inside positions. Second up after a first-up win fits the pattern of progressive improvement.
The 6YO gelding's narrow last start defeat shows he's racing consistently, and his 1-2-2 record from 13 soft track starts proves suitability for today's conditions. The inside barrier draw and 4kg claim provides significant advantages on a track favouring leaders and inside positions. While the 14% career win rate suggests place potential over outright victory, his recent form trajectory and conditions match make him a reliable each-way proposition.
Hollywoodboulevard represents an intriguing proposition as a lightly raced, progressive 3YO with a strong winning record. His 2 from 3 career starts and perfect 1100m record demonstrate clear ability, but the wide barrier (15) presents a significant obstacle on a soft track favouring inside runners. The class rise from BM56 and lack of wet track experience are concerns, particularly first up from a 131-day break. While the raw ability is evident, the racing circumstances suggest he's better placed as a place chance rather than outright winning selection.
His proven wet track credentials (2 heavy track wins, soft track placings) make him ideally suited to today's Soft 6 conditions. While consistency is a concern with only 16% career win rate, the class drop and conditions match justify the value assessment.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Akicita | 10 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 61kg | $9.50 |
| 1st | 9 | Rhia | 2 | Luke Currie | A & S Freedman | 60kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 5 | Bold Response | 6 | Ruby Lamont | Julius Sandhu | 56.5kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 3 | Kyle | 1 | Jye McNeil | E Jusufovic | 61.5kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Gundaroo | 5 | Brad Rawiller | Peter Smith | 61.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Snappy Secret | 7 | Patrick Moloney | Ms D Chapman | 62.5kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Count Of Toulouse | 9 | Emily Pozman | Dale Short | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Madam Excels | 4 | Celine Gaudray | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 16 | Please Me Do | 8 | Bailey Kinninmont | D E Dean | 52.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 14 | Faithinher | 3 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56.5kg | $18.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Dimora Queen | 12 | Linda Meech | L Smith | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Hollywoodboulevard | 15 | Will Gordon | Patrick & Michelle Payne | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Lucky Duck | 14 | Craig Newitt | J P Salanitri | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Viperion | 16 | Paul Gatt | C J Cassar | 57kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Coco De Luxe | 11 | Jake Duffy | Craig Weeding | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Paparazzo | 13 | Daniel Stackhouse | Craig Weeding | 58kg |
The Soft 6 track is a major unknown with no soft track form recorded. Despite these negatives, his forward racing pattern suits the likely tempo, Mott's 15% Seymour strike rate provides confidence, and the gear change may unlock improvement.
Hot Chips represents each-way value with strong recent form and perfect placement second-up. The Soft 6 track suits perfectly given her soft track record (1-0-2), and the 1300m distance matches her two previous attempts. While the class rise is notable, her improving trajectory and lightweight advantage make her a genuine threat.
Zenacity presents outstanding value after her dominant Echuca win. The 1300m distance is ideal (1-1-1 record), and despite the wide draw, her settling pattern as a backmarker actually benefits from the outside gate in a likely fast tempo.
The Mornington win over 1200m proves he can handle this distance, and Childs' 14% Seymour strike rate provides confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Hot Chips | 10 | Sam Kennedy | John McArdle | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Thunder Hawk | 4 | Bailey Kinninmont | Lucy Yeomans | 57kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Warakurna | 6 | Cory Parish | Lee & Shannon Hope | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Written Royalty | 3 | Rose Hammond | Ms G Johnstone | 58.5kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Fire Tribe | 12 | Billy Egan | Lee & Shannon Hope | 60.5kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Show Of Gold | 2 | Ruby Lamont | Julius Sandhu | 55.5kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 16 | Mutsuhito | 1 | Ms G Johnstone | 57.5kg | $71.00 | |
| 8th | 3 | Les Braves | 7 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 60kg | $2.30 |
| 9th | 15 | Rolihlahla | 11 | Milos Bunjevac | E W Nichols | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Annotate | 5 | Jake Duffy | Ms H Powell | 59kg | $18.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Tasman Park | 13 | Brad Rawiller | Peter Smith | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 12th | 10 | Magic Money | 15 | Jordan Childs | Simon Zahra | 58.5kg | $14.00 |
| 13th | 17 | Lewandowski | 16 | Keith Hall | 54kg | $201.00 | |
| Scr | 5 | Patchouli Dream | 8 | Emily Pozman | Matthew Hahne | 58kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Where's Poppy | 17 | Thomas Carberry | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Zenacity | 14 | Luke Currie | Nick Ryan | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Sunshine Jenni | 9 | Harry Coffey | Lloyd Kennewell | 57.5kg |
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