Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Sunday 18 January 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 7 races at Armidale. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
While lacking form data, Cada Estrella brings significant advantages through jockey booking (Aaron Bullock with 30% recent strike rate), an inside barrier draw (barrier 5) on a track that favors inside positions, and the addition of winkers first time. The likely on-pace position suits Armidale's tight turning track where leaders often prevail, especially in sprint races.
Protectionism brings solid credentials with a 3rd placing on debut at Inverell over 1050m on a Good 4 track. The inside barrier draw (4) is advantageous at Armidale's tight-turning track, and the mare should be able to secure a good position in midfield. While the jockey's strike rate with the trainer is a concern, the consistent form and suitable conditions make this a strong contender.
Sources Link brings valuable race experience with 11 starts and two placings. First-up from a spell but has the benefit of experience and should appreciate the fast tempo.
First-up from a spell but has shown ability on Soft tracks with two placings. The barrier draw is suitable for Armidale's tight-turning track, and the gelding should be able to secure a midfield position.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Love That Girl | 9 | Mikayla Weir | Stirling Osland | 56.5kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 1 | Cada Estrella | 5 | Aaron Bullock | Patrick Cleave | 58.5kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 2 | Heliophile | 8 | Shannen Llewellyn | Allan Kehoe | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Casino Collection | 1 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 56kg | $4.80 |
| 4th | 10 | Sources Link | 10 | Luke Rolls | J D Shelton | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 7 | My Lioness | 7 | Chelsea Hillier | P J Cunningham | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Sorutal | 2 | Cassey Williams | Ms S Grills | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Nikody's Casper | 6 | Madeline Owen | P Cheers | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Protectionism | 4 | Nick Palmer | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56kg | $6.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Privet | 3 | Stephanie Sixtus | 56kg |
Think Of One brings the strongest recent form, winning last start over 1815m at Port Macquarie with authority. The booking of in-form jockey Aaron Bullock (30% recent strike rate) is significant, and his improving pattern suggests more upside.
Bonfidelity brings solid form with a 3rd last start over 1400m at Inverell. Has been racing consistently at higher class levels and drops down here.
Sonder drops back in class after racing in stronger company. Has tactical speed to secure a good position from barrier 6, which is crucial at this track. The booking of Luke Rolls (who has a 25% strike rate with this trainer) is significant. Recent form is declining but the class drop should offset this. Represents each-way value.
The step up in distance should suit based on his racing pattern, and he gets in with a light weight. Madeline Owen (15% strike rate) is a positive jockey booking.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Bonfidelity | 7 | Mikayla Weir | P J Cunningham | 57kg | $2.15 |
| 2nd | 6 | Sonder | 6 | Luke Rolls | Stirling Osland | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Think Of One | 2 | Aaron Bullock | T J Bartley | 59kg | $3.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Frijoles | 1 | Nick Palmer | G R Schwenke | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Flee With Me | 13 | Brooke Stower | Samantha McGuren | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Firealarm | 11 | Jasen Watkins | Colt Prosser | 59kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Redadel | 12 | Madeline Owen | B D Bellamy | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Sir Zino | 5 | Jon Grisedale | Ms V McLennan | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Gangplank | 10 | Cassey Williams | R J Knight | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Mr Square Pants | 14 | Liam Blanch | Colt Prosser | 59kg | $81.00 |
| 11th | 9 | The Ambassador | 3 | Stephen Cummins | Sally Taylor | 57kg | $12.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Hardash | 4 | Jeff Kehoe | P Cheers | 59kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Xtra Bloom | 9 | Chelsea Hillier | J P Drake | 55kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Forever Twenty | 8 | Nikki Pollock | 55kg |
His track record at Armidale (0-2-1 from 3 starts) shows clear affinity, and he's proven on soft going. The significant class drop is a major positive, and Aaron Bullock (30% strike rate) is a perfect match for this track. The likely fast tempo will suit his running style.
Crashmyplaya brings rock-solid consistency with 4 placings from his last 5 starts. His tactical speed is perfectly suited to Armidale's tight turning track, and he maps to either lead or sit close to the pace. Luke Rolls knows the track well, and the first-time cross-over nose band could be the gear change needed to find that elusive win.
Weir is riding in good form (15% recent strike rate) and Osland is known for placing horses in winnable races.
Her recent form looks poor on paper, but she's dropping significantly in class and gets the services of Chelsea Hillier who's riding in excellent form (20% strike rate) and performs well at this track (21%). The likely fast tempo will suit her closing style, making her an excellent value proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Crashmyplaya | 4 | Luke Rolls | Colt Prosser | 59kg | $2.40 |
| 2nd | 7 | Evony | 9 | Shannen Llewellyn | P J Cunningham | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Invinciboo | 10 | Aaron Bullock | Jacob Perrett | 59kg | $3.10 |
| 4th | 1 | Clever Illusion | 3 | Jeff Kehoe | P Cheers | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Imotosan | 7 | Nick Palmer | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 53.5kg | $8.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Euroka Abby | 2 | Stephen Cummins | G Prosser | 55.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Curcuma | 8 | Cassey Williams | Ms T Bell | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 12 | The Palace | 6 | Chelsea Hillier | Holly Williams | 55.5kg | $15.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Kahu | 5 | Brooke Stower | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 57.5kg | $9.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Wolfcraig | 1 | M K Mason | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Written Legacy | 11 | Holly Williams | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Always A Rainbow | 12 | Mikayla Weir | Stirling Osland | 55.5kg |
Three-year-old gelding showing progressive form with a recent win at Ballina over similar distance. Has tactical speed to position well from barrier 4, crucial at this tight-turning track. Aaron Bullock (30% strike rate at Armidale) is a significant jockey upgrade. While unproven at track and distance, his tactical versatility and recent form make him the standout.
Six-year-old mare with excellent track record at Armidale (1-2-0 from 5) and proven soft track performer (2-2-2 from 9). Main concern is her poor second-up record (0-0-0 from 4) and jockey's lack of success on this horse, but track suitability is a significant advantage.
Five-year-old mare coming off a last-start win at Port Macquarie. While rising in class and unproven at this track and distance, her improving form pattern suggests she's ready to perform well. Luke Rolls (10% recent strike rate) has a solid record with this trainer.
While his win strike rate is poor (1 from 32), he's a consistent placegetter with track experience at Armidale. Madeline Owen (15% recent strike rate) is a positive jockey booking.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Kickoff | 2 | Luke Rolls | T J Bartley | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Inquisitor | 4 | Aaron Bullock | R H Dart | 59kg | $1.55 |
| 3rd | 8 | Linda's Magic | 6 | Brooke Stower | G R Schwenke | 55kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Semeco | 7 | Leanne Boyd | D J Hatch | 54kg | $20.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Nikody's Diego | 9 | Emily Farr | P Cheers | 53kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Arrabbiata | 5 | Mikayla Weir | Melanie O'Gorman | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Notabadone | 8 | Madeline Owen | Ms T Bell | 55kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Smiling Amos | 10 | Cassey Williams | Ridge Wilson | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Divine Feminine | 3 | T G Payne | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Fighting Sheriff | 1 | Scott Sweedman | Danni Schreck | 55kg |
Fools Play brings strong credentials first-up with an excellent place record (10 from 17 starts) and consistent form. The class drop from her last preparation is significant, and her first-up record (4: 0-1-1) suggests she'll be ready to fire fresh.
Parana River brings solid credentials as a previous winner at this track and distance. Her recent form is consistent (2-1-4) and she's proven versatile across track conditions with wins on good, heavy and placings on soft. From barrier 4, she maps to take up a forward position which suits Armidale's leader-biased layout. While carrying top weight is a challenge, she's shown ability to handle similar weights previously.
La Narradora brings solid recent form with a 4th placing at this track just 13 days ago.
While the class rise is a concern, her consistency (8 placings from 24 starts) and track experience offset this.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Heavenly Az | 1 | Brooke Stower | Stephanie Sixtus | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | La Narradora | 2 | Cassey Williams | Stirling Osland | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Ofcourseiam | 9 | Shannen Llewellyn | Allan Kehoe | 59.5kg | $14.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Wokou | 6 | Mikayla Weir | P J Cunningham | 56kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Fools Play | 3 | Aaron Bullock | Donna Grisedale | 58.5kg | $3.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Corvette Pride | 7 | Luke Rolls | W T Wilkes | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 6 | Divine Feminine | 10 | Scott Sweedman | T G Payne | 58.5kg | $71.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Ardonaugh | 5 | Leanne Boyd | R P Hartley | 60.5kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Parana River | 4 | Gabrielle Johnston | T J Vidler | 60kg | $5.50 |
| Scr | 2 | Takemine | 8 | T G Payne | 63kg |
The significant class drop works strongly in his favor, and jockey Aaron Bullock (30% strike rate) is in excellent form. His midfield running style should suit Armidale's tight turning track, and he appears well-weighted at 58kg.
Set To Prophet brings winning form at this track and excellent recent performances with 3 top-2 finishes in his last 4 starts. His consistency (5-9-5 from 47 starts) is a major asset, and he's well drawn in barrier 5. The 42-day freshen-up is the main query, but his overall profile suggests he'll be right in the finish again.
Zelestial brings an impressive win rate (3 from 8 starts) and is second-up from a spell where she should improve. While facing a significant class rise, her versatility on all track conditions and proven ability at the distance are positives.
Her proven Armidale form (0-2-0 from 5 starts) and perfect barrier draw (1) are significant advantages. The 8-day backup ensures peak fitness, and while her win strike rate is modest, her place percentage (35%) suggests she'll be right in the finish.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Set To Prophet | 5 | Emily Farr | Ms L Selby | 53kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 5 | Winged | 10 | Aaron Bullock | Melissa Dennett | 58kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Zelestial | 6 | Chris Taylor | Lyle Chandler | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 10 | Tycoon Lad | 4 | Leanne Boyd | Ms L Selby | 53kg | $81.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Takemine | 1 | Brooke Stower | T G Payne | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Big Short | 2 | Luke Rolls | D J Hatch | 57kg | $9.50 |
| 7th | 2 | To Be Frank | 3 | Mikayla Weir | Ms S Grills | 60.5kg | $3.90 |
| 8th | 1 | Dark Chill | 7 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 61kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Evocator | 9 | Scott Sweedman | Danni Schreck | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Little Prophet | 8 | Liam Blanch | Colt Prosser | 55kg | $26.00 |
Master Gee brings the strongest recent form into this race with a last-start win at Inverell followed by consecutive runner-up finishes. Aaron Bullock (30% strike rate) is a significant jockey booking, having won on this horse previously. With a good draw and proven ability at this track, he looks well-placed to continue his strong form.
The drop back to 1100m looks suitable, and he gets in well at the weights with 55.5kg. Luke Rolls is riding in good form, and from barrier 4, he should get an ideal run.
The drop in class is significant, and his overall record of 4 wins from 27 starts shows ability. The main concerns are the wide barrier and heavy weight impost of 63.5kg. If he can overcome these obstacles, he has the class to be competitive, but these factors push him behind the top two selections.
His second-up record (4: 1-1-1) is excellent, and he has previously placed at this track and distance. The significant class drop is a major positive, and his overall record of 4 wins from 16 starts shows ability. While his last start was disappointing, he had excuses and his prior form was solid.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Master Gee | 6 | Aaron Bullock | C R Clegg | 60.5kg | $2.10 |
| 2nd | 10 | Brighella | 4 | Luke Rolls | D J Hatch | 55.5kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 7 | La Cache A Vin | 10 | Jasen Watkins | B D Bellamy | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Soobooco | 5 | Grace Palmer | T G Payne | 60.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Ensign Parker | 9 | L J Fairhall | 63.5kg | $7.00 | |
| 6th | 4 | Cabsav | 8 | Gabrielle Johnston | J D Shelton | 60kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Koondeeman | 3 | Madeline Owen | Ms T Bell | 55.5kg | $9.00 |
| 8th | 12 | Invincible Faith | 1 | Emily Farr | Ms L Selby | 53kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Nikody's Binks | 2 | Jeff Kehoe | P Cheers | 57kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Haiku Star | 7 | Melissa Dennett | 63.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Yanabah | 3 | Melanie O'Gorman | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Set To Prophet | 12 | Ms L Selby | 58kg |
Before the races, not after
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