Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Thursday 29 January 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Tough Romance represents the powerful McEvoy stable who excel with well-prepared juveniles. Harry Coffey's booking is significant given his 20% recent strike rate and strong 14% combination with the stable. The barrier draw allows tactical options, and the application of a lugging bit first-up suggests professional preparation.
Basston debuts for the Hayes team who typically present well-educated juveniles. The comprehensive gear application (ear muffs pre-race, lugging bit, winkers) suggests they're leaving nothing to chance. Ben Allen is riding in excellent form with a 15% recent strike rate. Drawn to get an ideal run in a race with moderate tempo, should be right in the finish.
Stellar Cipher represents champion trainer Chris Waller who rarely sends unprepared juveniles to the races. The booking of Ben Melham (20% recent strike rate) is significant despite their low combination strike rate. The lugging bit suggests professional preparation, and from barrier 5 should get a nice midfield position. Likely to be finishing strongly if good enough.
Blue Jeans Talk offers value as one of only two runners with race experience. Gets in with just 54.5kg and draws perfectly in barrier 2.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Tough Romance | 3 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $1.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Stellar Cipher | 5 | Ben Melham | C J Waller | 58kg | $8.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Around The Marx | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | David & Coral Feek | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Blue Jeans Talk | 2 | Luke Cartwright | Shannon Roughan | 54.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Basston | 4 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $7.00 |
Daniel Stackhouse is well-suited to Pakenham and has a solid partnership with the Hayes stable. The filly has shown ability on good tracks and appears ready to break through after two consistent efforts.
Kiss The King represents an interesting proposition as a first starter from the Hayes stable. The booking of Jamie Mott (20% strike rate at Pakenham) is significant, while the application of a lugging bit and winkers first-up suggests connections expect a forward showing. The barrier draw gives options in running from a likely midfield position.
Glamour Model should get every chance from the inside barrier with Ben Melham aboard. The addition of a tongue tie could spark improvement, while her previous experience at this distance is a plus. Likely to be prominent in the early stages, she could prove hard to run down if she can dictate terms from the front.
The 42-day freshen-up should benefit this filly, who is likely to show natural improvement second-up. Lachlan Neindorf knows the Pakenham track well, and from barrier 5, she should get a reasonable run in midfield before finishing strongly.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Meet Me Halfway | 5 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Sealand | 6 | Zac Spain | Lloyd Kennewell | 57kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 2 | Glamour Model | 1 | Ben Melham | C W McDonald | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Sunset Royale | 2 | Luke Currie | A & S Freedman | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Platinum Rush | 4 | Lachlan Neindorf | Jason Warren | 57kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 3 | Kiss The King | 3 | Jamie Mott | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $4.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Galactic Girl | 3 | Shane Foley | R D Griffiths | 57kg |
Second-up today after showing improvement last start, and the Hayes team excels with horses at this stage of preparation. Daniel Stackhouse (18% at track) is a significant jockey upgrade, and the filly should be ready to peak. Expect her to use the rail position effectively in a race with very fast tempo.
The addition of blinkers and tongue tie signals trainer intent to sharpen her up, while Luke Currie (15% recent strike rate) is a strong jockey booking. Draws well in barrier 4 and should be able to take a forward position.
The booking of Jye McNeil is positive, though the wide barrier (8) is a concern at Pakenham's 1000m start. Likely to be on pace but may be tested by the very fast tempo predicted.
Taupin is an interesting debutant from the Stokes stable drawing the advantageous barrier 2. The addition of a tongue tie first-up suggests connections are addressing any breathing issues, while jockey Lachlan Neindorf (15% recent strike rate) is riding in good form. The trainer/jockey combination has a solid 11% strike rate.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Taupin | 2 | Lachlan Neindorf | P Stokes | 58kg | $2.25 |
| 2nd | 8 | Grand Old Bowler | 4 | Luke Currie | Trent Edmonds | 56kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 3 | Lightwatch | 8 | Jye McNeil | Brian McGrath | 58kg | $3.30 |
| 4th | 1 | On My Own | 3 | Koby Jennings | Geon Singh | 59.5kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Bimballa | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Gigantor | 6 | Luke Cartwright | M Krikas | 56kg | $151.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Mission Miss | 5 | Logan McNeil | Ms H Stephens | 57.5kg | $201.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Robeey Awe | 7 | Liana Wood | Jack Laing | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
His racing pattern suits the likely fast tempo, where he can settle midfield and use his strong finishing burst. The inside barrier is advantageous, and Ben Allen is a positive jockey booking with good recent form. Represents the strongest form credentials in this field.
The Western Front comes into this second-up from a spell following a solid 4th at Flemington. Daniel Stackhouse has a strong record on this horse with 1 win from 3 rides. While stepping up in class, he has shown ability in similar company previously and should be suited by the likely fast tempo. Expect improvement from his first-up run.
Mometz brings solid recent form including a win at Cranbourne two starts back. Luke Nolen has a good record on this horse with 1 win from 3 rides. While his mile record is modest, he has placed at the distance and should be suited by the likely fast tempo.
His record at the mile is solid, and he should be suited by the likely fast tempo. Craig Newitt has a good record on this horse with 1 win from 3 rides.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Mometz | 4 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Otago | 1 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 60.5kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Blakmax | 7 | Zac Spain | Shawn Mathrick | 60kg | $51.00 |
| 4th | 4 | The Western Front | 5 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $3.50 |
| 5th | 7 | Blushing Tycoon | 6 | Craig Newitt | T Busuttin & N Young | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Empressive Enuff | 3 | Teodore Nugent | D Binaisse | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Little Cointreau | 2 | Ben Allen | Charlotte Littlefield | 60kg | $4.00 |
His last preparation showed consistent ability with a second placing over this distance at Sandown-Lakeside. Ben Allen has ridden him before and knows the horse well. The inside draw suits at Pakenham, and his first-up record suggests he can perform fresh.
Voronya debuts for the powerful Hayes stable with the benefit of an inside barrier draw. The stable typically presents their horses well-prepared, and the gear choices suggest they're managing any pre-race anxiety. Daniel Stackhouse has a solid 18% strike rate at Pakenham and the Hayes/Stackhouse combination has produced 19 winners from 130 rides.
Burleigh brings rock-solid form with placings in 4 of his 6 career starts. The wide barrier is a concern, but his consistent finishing ability suggests he can overcome it. The Maher stable is in good form, and this gelding appears ready to break through.
Sapphire Siren showed promise with a 3rd placing on debut in heavy conditions, suggesting natural ability. The 216-day break should have allowed her to mature, and mares often improve significantly after a spell. The wide barrier is a concern, but the fast tempo predicted may help her run on.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Sapphire Siren | 11 | Teodore Nugent | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Wetumpka | 4 | Ben Allen | Peter Gelagotis | 58kg | $2.90 |
| 3rd | 3 | Midnight Man | 8 | Jordan Childs | M J Mehegan | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Salarae | 6 | Jamie Mott | C I Brown | 57.5kg | $3.60 |
| 5th | 7 | Light Moves | 10 | Ben Melham | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Voronya | 3 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Flash Kermy | 2 | Lachlan Neindorf | Jerome Hunter | 56kg | $11.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Native Spirit | 9 | Liana Wood | R J Besanko | 55.5kg | $301.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Gentleman Jim | 7 | Jake Noonan | John R Allen | 59.5kg | $201.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Spur Me On | 5 | Patrick Moloney | J F Moloney | 59.5kg | $61.00 |
| 11th | 2 | Just Teddy | 1 | Emily Pozman | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 57.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Fly By Light | 5 | Luke Nolen | C W McDonald | 58kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Burleigh | 11 | Michael Dee | C Maher | 58kg |
Tuscaloosa Gem brings strong credentials despite the lengthy spell, with excellent track statistics at Pakenham and a consistent overall record. The G. Begg/Jordan Childs combination is potent (19% strike rate), and Childs has ridden this mare successfully before (33% strike rate). While first-up from a spell, her previous fresh run produced a placing, and her trainer typically has horses ready to fire. The class rise is offset by her natural ability and strong connections.
Smash Blue brings excellent recent form, finishing a close second at Cranbourne over this distance 25 days ago. Her record at 1000m is impressive (4:1-2-0), and she boasts an outstanding 80% place strike rate from her 5 career starts. Bailey Kinninmont maintains the ride after their last start placing.
The 15-day spacing is ideal for maintaining fitness, and his record at the distance (5:1-0-1) indicates suitability. Brad Rawiller retains the ride after their winning partnership.
Now second-up from a spell with significant gear changes (compression hood with ear muffs first time, cross-over nose band first time), she's likely to show improvement. Her maiden win came at this distance, and she's dropping in class from her previous assignments.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Tuscaloosa Gem | 6 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 58kg | $1.45 |
| 2nd | 9 | Stahnado | 1 | Sam Kennedy | John McArdle | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Smash Blue | 9 | Bailey Kinninmont | Luke Oliver | 55kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Stormbourg | 4 | Sheridan Clarke | J F Moloney | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 5 | Oceansprint | 5 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Dapper Don | 8 | Ryan Houston | Ms H Burns | 57.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Lychee Green Tea | 3 | Jett Stanley | Ms H Burns | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Count Of Toulouse | 7 | Emily Pozman | Dale Short | 58kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Fullproof | 2 | Melea Castle | Ms V Chapple Fahler | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Good Boy Carlo | 9 | Brad Rawiller | E W Ewert | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Too Darn Crystal | 9 | Lachlan Neindorf | Niki O'Shea | 56kg |
Lightly-raced 3YO gelding showing tremendous upside with a dominant maiden win last start. Gets in with just 58.5kg and has tactical versatility from barrier 6. Ben Allen (1 from 2 on this horse) knows him well and should position him ideally in a race with genuine tempo.
Mare with strong metropolitan form dropping back to provincial grade. Luke Cartwright (perfect 1 from 1 on this horse) takes the ride and should position her to advantage despite the wide draw. The expected fast tempo should suit her finishing style.
Consistent performer with excellent course credentials (2 wins, 1 place from 7 starts at Pakenham). The wide barrier is a concern, but Jamie Mott (20% strike rate at this track) should position him to advantage. Will be finishing strongly with the anticipated fast tempo.
His inside draw (barrier 2) should allow him to secure an ideal position in the run. Lachlan Neindorf (12% strike rate at this track) should give him every chance.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Betwitchery | 8 | Luke Cartwright | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 58.5kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 8 | Storm Leopard | 4 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 4 | Delta Sky | 5 | Ryan Houston | Lee & Shannon Hope | 57.5kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 6 | The Negotiator | 9 | Jamie Mott | C I Brown | 59kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 12 | Miss Kasei | 7 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Savannah Chill | 2 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Mont Saint Michel | 1 | Lachlan Neindorf | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 59kg | $14.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Norwoods | 6 | Emily Pozman | Rachael Cunningham | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Show Of Gold | 3 | Craig Newitt | Julius Sandhu | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| Scr | 7 | King's Taj | 1 | Sheridan Clarke | J R Welsh | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Warakurna | 4 | Lee & Shannon Hope | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Gibraltar Tycoon | 8 | Patrick Moloney | R D Griffiths | 56.5kg |
Insain Harry brings the strongest recent form into this race with a win last start and a placing before that. Ben Allen is a quality jockey who should give him every chance. While he's rising in class, his recent performances suggest he's ready for the challenge.
Here The Crowd brings strong credentials as a track winner dropping back in class. While first-up from a spell, she's shown ability fresh before. The class drop is significant, and she should be right in the finish if she brings her best form.
Russian Front brings solid recent form with consecutive second placings. He has valuable track experience and the services of top jockey Jye McNeil. While the wide barrier is a concern, his consistency and race fitness (only 12 days since last run) are significant positives. He's proven competitive at this level and should be in the finish.
Florina Region represents excellent value as a lightly-raced, progressive mare with a strong record. While first-up from a lengthy spell, she's shown ability when fresh and has the services of Jordan Childs who has ridden her successfully before.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Insain Harry | 3 | Ben Allen | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 60kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 14 | Bohemian Angel | 2 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56.5kg | $19.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Here The Crowd | 1 | Zoe Waller | C Maher | 58kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Russian Front | 12 | Jye McNeil | Andrea Leek | 59.5kg | $4.60 |
| 5th | 9 | Princess Montecito | 4 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Volkano | 5 | Michael Dee | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Bossy Star | 9 | Ryan Houston | M M Laurie | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Cameron Falls | 10 | Luke Cartwright | Lee & Shannon Hope | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Florina Region | 7 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 58kg | $14.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Cardi Bee | 8 | Robert Whearty | C Maher | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 6 | Best Of The Best | 6 | Ben Melham | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 12th | 13 | Winmar | 11 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Marlion's Dream | 16 | Jamie Mott | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 59kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Royal Turf | 14 | Celine Gaudray | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Pietro Road | 2 | M, W & J Hawkes | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Apppleby | 10 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 56kg |
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