Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Thursday 5 February 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
The filly has valuable race experience with 2 starts and gets weight relief at 56kg. Well-drawn in barrier 4 with Jye McNeil aboard who performs well at this track. The class drop is substantial and should see her very competitive.
The colt has one start under his belt which provides valuable race experience, and the class drop to maiden grade is significant. Well-drawn in barrier 3 with experienced jockey John Allen aboard. The inside draw should allow him to take up a forward position in what's expected to be a fast-tempo race.
Stomping Ground is an unraced prospect with no form to assess, but there are several positives in his favor. Damian Lane is a significant booking with an impressive 29% win rate at this track. The inside barrier draw is advantageous at Pakenham, and the first-time gear additions (lugging bit and tongue tie) suggest connections are expecting a forward showing. Likely to be on-pace which suits this track configuration.
While unraced with no form to assess, the colt has several factors in his favor. Craig Williams is an elite jockey booking, and trainer D T O'Brien is in good form. The barrier 5 draw is favorable, and Captain Blood is likely to be on-pace which suits the Pakenham track configuration.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Leopard Shark | 4 | Jye McNeil | Clayton Douglas | 56kg | $1.65 |
| 2nd | 3 | Silent Grit | 3 | John Allen | N A Blackiston | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Captain Blood | 5 | Craig Williams | D T O'Brien | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Lift Net | 1 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Stomping Ground | 2 | Damian Lane | E & D Browne | 58kg | $5.50 |
Madame Lexis represents excellent value dropping sharply in class after competing admirably in much stronger company. The inside draw is ideal for her racing pattern.
Divine Clementine is a progressive staying mare showing steady improvement with each run. Her last three starts have yielded two placings, including a strong third last time out over 2200m. While this represents a class rise, she's on an upward trajectory and should appreciate the step up in distance. The inside draw and Jye McNeil's booking are significant positives.
The top weight is a concern, but he's shown he can handle it. His consistent form and proven staying ability make him a genuine contender, though the value lies elsewhere.
Diamond Flash One represents excellent value as a last-start winner over this exact course and distance. His track record at Pakenham (1 win from 2 starts) is another positive.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Madame Lexis | 1 | Teodore Nugent | Nathan Dunn | 55.5kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 1 | Tsitsipas | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | T Busuttin & N Young | 59.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 3 | Amawasha | 4 | Luke Cartwright | Mitchell Leek | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Hollandia | 5 | Ryan Houston | J F Moloney | 57kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Divine Clementine | 2 | Jye McNeil | Mitchell Freedman | 55kg | $4.80 |
| 6th | 4 | Diamond Flash One | 6 | Thomas Stockdale | F Stockdale | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Duke Of Hastings | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | Simon Zahra | 56kg | $8.50 |
Chateau Dancer brings the strongest recent form, finishing a close second over 2400m at Moe last start. Has shown consistent improvement with each run this preparation, including a second at this track over 1600m. Drawn perfectly in barrier 2 with tactical versatility to settle midfield in a moderately paced race. The step up to 2500m looks ideal based on her staying profile.
Phoenician brings strong staying credentials with multiple placings at similar distances. Brad Rawiller knows this horse well with multiple placings together. The main concern is his inability to break through for a win despite numerous chances.
Fedora is a progressive staying filly who finished a close second last start over 2050m at Moe. She's shown steady improvement throughout this preparation and gets in with just 57kg as a 3yo filly. Patrick Moloney is riding in excellent form with 4 wins from his last 20 rides. The step up to 2500m is a query but her racing pattern suggests she'll handle it.
St Dominic represents excellent value after a strong second at this track and distance last start, beaten just 2 lengths. That run showed significant improvement on previous form and suggests he's found his niche as a stayer. Tayla Childs retains the ride and from barrier 6 should get a nice midfield position.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Diggers Aim | 8 | Jamie Mott | T Rogers | 59.5kg | $2.60 |
| 2nd | 3 | Phoenician | 3 | Brad Rawiller | E W Ewert | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | The Long Mover | 1 | Ryan Houston | R J Blacker | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Rapido River | 9 | Daniel Stackhouse | Mitchell Leek | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 5th | 4 | St Dominic | 6 | Tayla Childs | Jason Chandler | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Mwamba | 5 | Zac Spain | P E Kramer | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Chateau Dancer | 2 | Lachlan Neindorf | A R McGregor | 57.5kg | $2.70 |
| 8th | 2 | Mariner's Dream | 7 | Teodore Nugent | Susie Wells | 59.5kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Fedora | 4 | Patrick Moloney | David & Coral Feek | 57kg |
The inside draw is perfect for Pakenham, and he should take up a forward position from barrier 2. The step up to 1200m looks suitable, and the addition of a tongue tie suggests improvement. Thomas Stockdale's booking is a positive, and the Simon Zahra stable is in good form.
Dama Royale brings a progressive profile with placings in both career starts. As the only filly in the field, she receives a 2kg weight advantage which could prove significant. The fast tempo predicted should suit her running style, and she appears to be improving with each run. Beau Mertens knows the track well with 5 wins from 73 rides.
Burleigh brings the most consistent form to this race with 4 placings from 6 starts. The booking of Damian Lane is significant, and while barrier 8 isn't ideal, he has the experience to overcome it.
Sparkling Luck returns from a spell with some promising form in the book. While barrier 9 isn't ideal, the fast tempo should allow him to find a position and finish strongly.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | I Stand By You | 1 | Teodore Nugent | M, W & J Hawkes | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Sparkling Luck | 9 | Zac Spain | Lloyd Kennewell | 58kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Mahershala | 10 | Ben Allen | C Maher | 58kg | $3.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Talkin' Stern | 4 | John Allen | Gavin Bedggood | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 4 | General Blu | 2 | Thomas Stockdale | Simon Zahra | 58kg | $1.80 |
| 6th | 1 | Bradford | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | Shane Nichols & Hayden Black | 58kg | $20.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Clansman | 7 | Celine Gaudray | J F Moloney | 58kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Burleigh | 8 | Damian Lane | C Maher | 58kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Mercer Island | 5 | Luke Currie | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 58kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Dama Royale | 6 | Beau Mertens | T Busuttin & N Young | 56kg |
Ten Warriors brings the strongest form credentials to this race, having placed in 8 of his 11 starts including a close second at this track last start. The gelding drops significantly in class from recent runs and has proven ability on Good tracks.
Celestra brings strong form credentials having placed third in both her first and most recent starts. The booking of Damian Lane (30% strike rate with this stable) is significant, and from barrier 3 she should get an ideal run in midfield with a strong finishing burst.
I Said So brings solid credentials with placings in half of his 6 starts, including a strong record at this track (0-1-1 from 3 starts). From barrier 2, he should get an ideal run on the speed in a race that should suit his racing pattern.
Bermondsey represents excellent value coming back from a spell after competing in much stronger company.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Berlemont | 4 | Luke Currie | M C Kent | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Ten Warriors | 9 | Jamie Mott | T Rogers | 59.5kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | On The Loose | 13 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 2 | I Said So | 2 | Sheridan Clarke | Ms W Kelly | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Rich King | 7 | Jake Noonan | M M Laurie | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Lotta City | 1 | Lachlan Neindorf | Jerome Hunter | 57kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Bermondsey | 8 | Jye McNeil | Reece Goodwin | 59kg | $16.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Celestra | 3 | Damian Lane | A & S Freedman | 57kg | $2.90 |
| 9th | 10 | Broadway Sal | 12 | Theodore Ladd | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $81.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Spin Class | 6 | Jamie Melham | Robert Palm | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 11th | 14 | Coronation Turbo | 14 | Daniel Stackhouse | Brett Scott | 59kg | $151.00 |
| 12th | 13 | Miss Lil | 5 | Thomas Stockdale | F Stockdale | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Gold Franc | 10 | F Stockdale | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Sabertooth | 11 | Jett Stanley | T Busuttin & N Young | 59kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Trentino | 10 | Julius Sandhu | 59kg |
Barrier 1 perfect for weak inside bias at Pakenham 1400m. Moderate-fast tempo suits forward position.
Lulu Darling offers strong place claims with excellent distance record (11:4-0-0) and recent consistency (322 last three). Drops in class, good track affinity suits Good 4. Tempo favors midfield finishers per track bias analysis.
Mr Epozino represents value as unexposed 3yo with recent maiden win at Seymour 1300m, stepping to BM62. High good track suitability, barrier 4 ideal for midfield tempo map.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Factcheck | 6 | Craig Williams | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 60kg | $2.20 |
| 2nd | 1 | Attain | 1 | Jackson Radley | Gavin Bedggood | 59kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Mr Epozino | 4 | Thomas Stockdale | Simon Zahra | 60kg | $15.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Prince Magnetite | 3 | Teodore Nugent | M, W & J Hawkes | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Little Bighorn | 9 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Lulu Darling | 5 | Koby Jennings | Michael Huglin | 59kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 10 | La Belle Grande | 12 | Jake Noonan | G Eurell | 56kg | $17.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Intimeofneed | 7 | Luke Cartwright | Dennis Julius | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Stella Cantante | 11 | Jett Stanley | N J Harnett | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Good Boy Carlo | 8 | Bailey Kinninmont | E W Ewert | 54.5kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Military Base | 10 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 60kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Gracious Diva | 11 | Susie Wells | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Mount Sabyinyo | 2 | John Allen | T Busuttin & N Young | 59.5kg |
Les Braves brings rock-solid form with three placings from his last four starts, including consecutive seconds at his last two outings. The perfect inside draw gives him tactical options in a race with very fast predicted tempo. While Jamie Mott is yet to win on him, the horse's consistency and ability to perform at this class level make him the standout selection.
Luke Currie's booking is a positive, and the horse's proven ability to perform fresh makes him a genuine winning chance despite the weight.
Sussex Duchess comes off an impressive maiden win and draws perfectly in barrier 2. Her second-up record shows she can improve, and the inside draw gives her tactical options in a race with predicted fast tempo.
The inside barrier and gear change to visors should sharpen him up second-up. Jordan Childs has a strong 19% strike rate with trainer Begg, and the horse's win at synthetic suggests versatility.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Ka Ying Cheer | 11 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Sussex Duchess | 2 | John Allen | Andrew Noblet | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Axiom | 6 | Thomas Stockdale | Gavin Bedggood | 59kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Les Braves | 1 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 60kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Astari | 8 | Lachlan Neindorf | M W Walker | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Sideline | 3 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 59kg | $7.00 |
| 7th | 5 | O'mosa | 9 | Sheridan Clarke | D C Harrison | 59kg | $71.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Soho Princess | 10 | Melea Castle | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Boom Boom Betty | 7 | Teodore Nugent | Jim Cerchi Jnr | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Dreams | 5 | Luke Cartwright | M C Kent | 57.5kg | $9.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Smarticon | 4 | Jake Noonan | David & Coral Feek | 57kg |
Midfield map suits very fast tempo and track's closers advantage (backmarkers 15% win rate). Good barrier 4 exploits weak inside bias. Selected over others due to recency and class edge.
Good track form (3:1-1-0) suits Good 4. Wide draw minor issue but sweeping turns fairer at 1200m; tempo suits strong finisher.
Damian Lane boosts connections. Fast tempo may suit if sharp; value in place despite wide draw and spell.
Moody/K Coleman prep reliable first up (2:0-2-0). Fast tempo favours back/midfield closer per bias. Recent BM66 6th forgivable; huge place value in deeper field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Blue Hawaiian | 6 | Theodore Ladd | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 3 | Royal Rendezvous | 4 | Lachlan Neindorf | M W Walker | 60kg | $2.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Marlion's Dream | 9 | Damian Lane | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Crickets Chirping | 7 | Jye McNeil | E & D Browne | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Pietro Road | 2 | Teodore Nugent | M, W & J Hawkes | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Lucky Duck | 5 | Craig Newitt | J P Salanitri | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 9 | No Overtaking | 11 | Luke Currie | Brent Stanley | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Rose De Vellor | 10 | Jackson Radley | Charlotte Littlefield | 58kg | $3.70 |
| 9th | 5 | Royal Turf | 3 | Celine Gaudray | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59kg | $51.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Supido's Choice | 1 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 61.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Master Of Mischief | 8 | Sheridan Clarke | Ms R Mangan | 55kg | $201.00 |
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