Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Monday 9 February 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Muswellbrook. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
The Extreme Choice breeding is ideal for this distance and the stable has strong form with first-starters. Barrier 5 provides tactical options and the booking of Chad Lever adds confidence despite his modest recent form.
Consistent mare with strong placing record who has been competitive in recent starts. The addition of compression hood and removal of cross-over nose band could provide improvement. Recent form shows she's competitive at this level despite not winning yet.
Kris Lees-trained gelding returns from 163-day spell with gelding operation completed. Previously placed third on heavy track and showed ability in two starts. The stable excels with first-up runners and Aaron Bullock has strong record with the trainer. Barrier 8 is concerning but class edge evident.
Represents significant value if showing any ability on debut.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Extraglow | 5 | Chad Lever | Bjorn Baker | 56.5kg | $1.45 |
| 2nd | 1 | Moke Lake | 7 | Grant Buckley | P H Bloomfield | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Russian Words | 3 | Adrian Layt | R E Ollerton | 56.5kg | $51.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Brazen Diva | 6 | Shannen Llewellyn | J A Sylvester | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 5th | 2 | Satin Dragon | 2 | Billy Cray | L K Roberts | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Zoushadow | 9 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 57kg | $5.50 |
| Scr | 3 | Woodrow | 8 | Aaron Bullock | K A Lees | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Markwell Music | 4 | Joseph Burges | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Sweet Disposition | 1 | Deon Le Roux | Jay Hopkins | 53.5kg |
The standout selection based on course familiarity and recent form. Finished 2nd at this track in similar soft conditions just 26 days ago, showing clear suitability. Barrier 1 provides tactical advantage for a likely leader, and the Bullock/Messara combination is highly effective. While unproven as a winner, the consistent placings and track experience make this the most reliable option in a maiden field.
Experienced mare with proven form at the distance, including recent placings at 1500m in soft conditions. The consistency is appealing in a maiden field, though the poor jockey/trainer combination and lack of a win from 8 starts are significant concerns.
Strong recent form at the exact distance with a close 2nd at Port Macquarie over 1500m. Distance proven and showing consistent improvement, though the wide draw and missing jockey information are concerns.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Are You Kidding | 1 | Aaron Bullock | P Messara & L Gavranich | 59.5kg | $1.22 |
| 2nd | 5 | Warm Front | 4 | Reece Jones | Nacim Dilmi | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Robbed By Rob | 6 | Grant Buckley | Sara Ryan | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Supercrisp | 8 | Adrian Layt | R E Ollerton | 55kg | $20.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Marchtime | 3 | Ella Drew | Carlos Antonio | 53kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Bohemian Art | 5 | Ben Looker | Stirling Osland | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 7 | Curcuma | 7 | Deon Le Roux | Ms T Bell | 52kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Valentiago | 10 | Mitchell Bell | Peter Snowden | 60kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Surpasser | 9 | K A Lees | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Jigadee | 2 | Shannen Llewellyn | Scott Aspery | 56kg |
Toke presents the strongest winning case based on pure form analysis. The gelding showed marked improvement last start with a strong third placing and benefits significantly from dropping in class.
The barrier 1 draw provides tactical advantages and trainer/jockey combination statistics are positive.
While the debut performance was excellent, the lack of soft track experience and concerning jockey form create doubt. The wide barrier adds tactical complications for a horse still learning her trade.
Morpeth represents value as a second up runner with improvement potential. The inside barrier and jockey's strong track record provide positives, while the soft track experience adds appeal.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Alarthill | 7 | Leeshelle Small | Ms J Bowen | 55kg | $19.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Velka | 1 | Ben Looker | T S Howlett | 58.5kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 4 | Morpeth | 3 | Aaron Bullock | T S Howlett | 58.5kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Toke | 6 | Jenny Duggan | Ms J Bowen | 58.5kg | $2.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Norbows Legacy | 2 | Jeff Penza | Ms J Bowen | 56.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Markwell Melody | 4 | Grant Buckley | Joseph Burges | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Droplets | 9 | Mitch Stapleford | Ms J Bowen | 56.5kg | $91.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Envisioned | 8 | Deon Le Roux | S J Gleeson | 56kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Spiritual Force | 10 | Reece Jones | J R Gask | 56.5kg | $71.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Civilian | 5 | Shannen Llewellyn | J A Sylvester | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Are You Kidding | 11 | P Messara & L Gavranich | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Highland Dancer | 11 | Mikayla Weir | Stirling Osland | 56.5kg |
Second up from a spell with proven fitness progression and an inside barrier draw provide additional advantages despite the class rise.
The gear change and proven distance form provide optimism despite wet track concerns and the wide barrier draw.
Nomorenightshift brings a perfect distance record and soft track ability to this assignment. His 2-0-0 record at 1280m is compelling, while the inside barrier and gear changes provide tactical advantages. However, poor second up statistics and the significant class rise present concerns about his ability to handle this level.
Miss Rebel represents value based on her outstanding track record at Muswellbrook and significant weight relief. Her 1-1-1 record here suggests strong suitability, while the gear change and weight drop provide hope for improvement.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Miss Rebel | 6 | Reece Jones | Cassandra Stummer | 55kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 3 | Xtra Approval | 4 | Hollie Hull | A P Ball | 54.5kg | $71.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Kranich | 5 | Chad Lever | M R Mulholland | 58kg | $2.60 |
| 4th | 4 | How Much Better | 8 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Nacim Dilmi | 57kg | $4.20 |
| 5th | 9 | Tanglewood Jimmy | 3 | Andrew Gibbons | W T Wilkes | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Nomorenightshift | 1 | Ben Looker | M D Griffith | 56kg | $7.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Night Fighter | 3 | Jenny Duggan | Ms S Grills | 58kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Smoke On The Water | 7 | James Dobie | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Pinot Nero | 2 | Grant Buckley | John W Ramsey | 55kg |
Second up specialist with perfect record when resuming for second start. The heavy track form is excellent but today's soft conditions are a concern.
Represents value dropping significantly in class after competitive efforts at higher level. The soft track record is poor but the class drop and good barrier position provide hope.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Damascus Gate | 1 | Ella Drew | Carlos Antonio | 56kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 4 | Commando Jack | 5 | Aaron Bullock | David J Smith | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Jasper's Way | 7 | Chad Lever | M R Mulholland | 62kg | $4.40 |
| 4th | 2 | Strobing | 3 | Hollie Hull | A P Ball | 58.5kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 9 | Golden Cow | 11 | Liberty Smyth | Carlos Antonio | 51kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Cheeky Nugget | 12 | Jacob Stiff | Julia Presits | 52kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Wicked Games | 10 | Ben Looker | W T Wilkes | 55.5kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Corpsman | 6 | Shannen Llewellyn | J A Sylvester | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 9th | 11 | Notabadone | 9 | Deon Le Roux | Ms T Bell | 52kg | $91.00 |
| 10th | 10 | My Diamond Boy | 8 | Mikayla Weir | Julia Presits | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 11th | 3 | Sipping Shamus | 2 | Leeshelle Small | R P Northam | 59.5kg | $3.80 |
| Scr | 6 | Avoid Me | 4 | Julia Presits | 55.5kg |
Vicious Rumour won impressively at Dubbo just 7 days ago and has been ultra-consistent with five placings from six starts. Jacob Stiff is riding in excellent form and the inside barrier suits her racing pattern. The lack of soft track experience is a concern but her current form momentum is strong.
Lune D'excellence broke through for her maiden win at Taree and has shown good consistency with a 36% place rate. Her soft track form includes a placing and she draws well in barrier 6. The class rise is significant but her recent win suggests improvement and the Gibbons/Lees combination is reliable.
Piccaderro won impressively at Port Macquarie 17 days ago and returns second up where he's shown consistency with two placings from two starts. His soft track record of 1 win and 2 placings from 5 starts is strong for today's conditions. The class rise is concerning but his recent win suggests he's ready to step up.
As a lightly raced 3yo filly with only 55.5kg, she has scope for improvement. The class rise is substantial but her soft track win and light weight make her a strong value proposition in this field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Lune D'excellence | 6 | Andrew Gibbons | K A Lees | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Explosive Tycoon | 2 | Aaron Bullock | A P Ball | 59kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Vicious Rumour | 1 | Jacob Stiff | M R Mulholland | 54.5kg | $2.70 |
| 4th | 8 | Bonoyster | 8 | Grant Buckley | N F Boland | 56.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 13 | Full Commitment | 5 | Adrian Layt | J R Gask | 55kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Love That Girl | 4 | Mikayla Weir | Stirling Osland | 55.5kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 14 | Moden | 12 | Jeff Penza | M N Howard | 55kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Prosperous Dragon | 3 | Mitch Stapleford | Jake Hull | 61.5kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Piccaderro | 11 | Ben Looker | J C Deamer | 58kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Whispering Rupert | 10 | Mollie Fitzgerald | G McFarlane | 58kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Nay Pee Cee | 7 | Jenny Duggan | G McFarlane | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Shine Your Light | 9 | Gabrielle Johnston | John W Ramsey | 53.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | The Nephilim | 13 | Deon Le Roux | Ms T Bell | 53kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Ichika | 14 | Ms S Grills | 55.5kg |
His soft track record (3 wins from 18 starts) suits today's conditions perfectly, while the significant class drop from higher grades provides a crucial edge. Despite the challenging barrier and top weight, his superior fitness and track conditions suitability make him the form pick.
Her recent placings and soft track win demonstrate current ability, while the addition of winkers suggests trainer confidence.
Nevermista presents outstanding recent consistency with 5 placings from his last 6 starts, including three narrow defeats. The class rise is concerning but his recent form trajectory and soft track ability suggest he's ready to break through.
His excellent Muswellbrook record (1 win from 4 starts) and good barrier draw provide key advantages.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Viipuri | 10 | Mitchell Bell | Peter Snowden | 60kg | $2.30 |
| 2nd | 3 | Sapphire Kiss | 3 | Grant Buckley | Wayne Seelin | 60.5kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 13 | Seeni | 4 | Shannen Llewellyn | J A Sylvester | 55kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Yes Yes Boss | 6 | Ella Drew | Carlos Antonio | 53kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Lily Bobtail | 11 | Jeff Penza | Luke A Thomas | 56kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Hoku | 12 | Billy Cray | L K Roberts | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Our Emily | 2 | Grace Palmer | John Bannister | 55kg | $4.60 |
| 8th | 2 | Super Freds | 1 | Aaron Bullock | Jay Hopkins | 61.5kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Sunday Bell | 9 | Jacob Stiff | N F Boland | 52kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Canny Prospect | 8 | Gabrielle Johnston | T S Howlett | 59kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Nevermista | 5 | Daniel A Northey | Simon Casey | 59kg | |
| Scr | 8 | El Beatle | 13 | J A Sylvester | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Provencal | 7 | Reece Jones | J R Gask | 57kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.