Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 13 February 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 7 races at Cranbourne. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Headbanger presents the strongest winning chance with a significant class drop from Listed company. The G M Begg stable excels with these types, and despite the wide draw, her class edge over this Maiden field is substantial.
The I Am Invincible filly showed promise when second at this track and distance, and the strong Kennewell/Cartwright combination provides confidence.
The nose roll first time and barrier 3 draw provide tactical advantages in a race where several rivals have shown limitations.
The Nicconi filly benefits from Linda Meech's booking and barrier 1, while the 177-day break could see marked improvement. Her synthetic debut was modest, but the surface change and fresh condition create upset potential.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Headbanger | 7 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 57kg | $1.40 |
| 2nd | 4 | Invincible Lover | 2 | Luke Cartwright | Lloyd Kennewell | 55kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Sassidora | 4 | Craig Newitt | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Fanfire | 1 | Linda Meech | Mitchell Freedman | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Sheeze Ominous | 6 | Jackson Radley | M Croston & G Gilmour | 54kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Perfect Motion | 3 | Zac Spain | Charlotte Littlefield | 57kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Congress Of Vienna | 5 | Melea Castle | Marcus Fahler | 57kg | $41.00 |
While first-up from a long spell is a concern, the inside barrier suits the likely tempo and previous first-up form suggests readiness.
Costa Paros showed marked improvement when narrowly beaten at this track last start and has valuable course experience. The Blue Point gelding maps well from barrier 7 which suits the middle barrier bias, and his recent form trend suggests he's close to breaking through in suitable company.
Irreverent brings the most reliable form line with three placings from four starts, including a close third last start. The I Am Invincible filly is second-up where many improve, and the addition of blinkers first time could provide the winning edge.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Cinturato | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | M W Walker | 58kg | $1.24 |
| 2nd | 2 | Costa Paros | 7 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Kings Domain | 4 | Linda Meech | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | $14.00 |
| 4th | 6 | La Divina | 9 | Luke Cartwright | G Eurell | 56kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Sonic Belle | 8 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Tennessee Link | 1 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 56kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Platinum Rush | 6 | Zac Spain | Jason Warren | 56kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 4 | See See Magic | 2 | Craig Newitt | Edward Cummings | 58kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Irreverent | 5 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg |
Urban Outlook presents excellent value coming off a dominant 3000m win at Sandown just 8 days ago. The significant class drop provides a crucial edge, while his recent fitness peak suggests he can overcome positioning concerns.
Steel Run represents the classic second-up improver with fitness gains expected from his first-up fourth. The significant class drop and distance suitability are strong positives, combined with the inside barrier providing tactical options.
Mozu Marcassin offers genuine value based on his recent Cranbourne second and improving fitness trend. Michael Dee's exceptional track record (29% strike rate) provides a significant jockey advantage, while the lightweight provides further assistance. The class rise is concerning, but recent form suggests capability at this level.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Urban Outlook | 3 | Jordan Childs | J G Symons & S Laxon | 57.5kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | Mozu Marcassin | 6 | Michael Dee | Matthew Cumani | 55kg | $3.10 |
| 3rd | 1 | American Wolf | 4 | Beau Mertens | T Busuttin & N Young | 59kg | $2.35 |
| 4th | 4 | Midnight Glow | 2 | Craig Newitt | J P Salanitri | 56kg | $7.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Steel Run | 1 | Luke Cartwright | M C Kent | 57kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Holly's Star | 5 | Jackson Radley | Toby Lake | 52kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Diamond Flash One | 3 | F Stockdale | 55kg |
Jareth represents strong each-way value from the premier Maher/Eales stable.
Shoeless offers significant each-way value based on his exceptional course and distance record at Cranbourne. His 4:1-1-1 record here translates to a 75% place rate, while his second-up statistics show genuine improvement patterns.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Astral Flame | 7 | Lachlan Neindorf | E Jusufovic | 58.5kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 6 | Time Allowed | 5 | Michael Dee | T Busuttin & N Young | 58.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 5 | Jareth | 1 | Logan Bates | C Maher | 56.5kg | $3.20 |
| 4th | 1 | Shoeless | 4 | Zac Spain | Shawn Mathrick | 62.5kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 7 | Jewel Bay | 6 | Luke Cartwright | Andrea Leek | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Fulfilled | 2 | Eoin Walsh | C Maher | 59.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Notabadbuy | 3 | Luke Nolen | Colin Scott | 61kg | $15.00 |
The mare's second-up placement record and soft track win provide additional confidence for today's Good 4 conditions.
The wide barrier is concerning, but her fitness, suitable weight, and track knowledge make her a reliable each-way proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Innocent Enuff | 3 | Ryan Houston | Logan McGill | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Egerton | 9 | Luke Cartwright | C I Brown | 58.5kg | $2.20 |
| 3rd | 4 | Symphony Of Colour | 8 | Damian Lane | Niki O'Shea | 58kg | $3.30 |
| 4th | 6 | Lake Gillear | 6 | Melea Castle | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Frose | 7 | Holly Durnan | Jamie Barry | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Flip The Switch | 1 | Dakotah Keane | Brooke Verwey-Mitchell | 54kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Hi Tiago | 5 | Alana Kelly | Yoshitomo Shima | 56kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 3 | Supervise | 4 | Jordyn Weatherley | Carly Thomas | 57kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Fully Calculated | 10 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 54.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Flying Ace | 2 | Jack Laing | 56.5kg |
Princess Que offers excellent second-up credentials with a perfect resuming record. The Damian Lane booking adds confidence, though the untested 1400m distance presents some uncertainty in an otherwise strong profile.
Tarzing stands out as the form selection with an unbeaten record and quality connections. The Chris Waller stable rarely brings horses to provincial tracks without genuine winning chances, and the recent Geelong victory demonstrates current form. Despite the class rise, the combination of perfect record and elite training makes this the most reliable winning chance.
Warrior Within represents excellent value with strong recent form including a Cranbourne victory.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Hot Digity Boom | 2 | Thomas Stockdale | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Bons To Riches | 1 | Michael Dee | Alexander Rae | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Le Ferrari | 7 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Sir Atlas | 9 | Fred W Kersley | L Smith | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Princess Que | 5 | Damian Lane | Simon Zahra | 59kg | $4.40 |
| 6th | 10 | Warrior Within | 12 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Conchiero | 3 | Jordan Childs | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 57.5kg | $4.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Pascero | 6 | Celine Gaudray | Carly Thomas | 61kg | $17.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Montjeuify | 10 | Eoin Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 59kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Masterful | 13 | Lachlan Neindorf | E Jusufovic | 58kg | |
| Scr | 11 | In Her Stride | 11 | Craig Newitt | J P Salanitri | 57kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Betwitchery | 11 | Luke Cartwright | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 54kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Tarzing | 8 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Podargoni | 4 | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg |
Nostro Roccia presents as the most logical winner having proven himself at this exact track and distance with a maiden victory three weeks ago. The Busuttin/Young stable excels with progressive types, and the top weight suggests strong stable confidence despite the step up in grade.
The Fastnet Rock gelding showed promise first-up and typically improves significantly second-up. His soft track form is solid and the gear change removing the bubble cheeker suggests connections expect improvement.
Florina Region offers excellent each-way value despite her poor last start finish. Her perfect Cranbourne record and the proven Begg/Childs combination provide confidence. The mare typically improves second-up and the inside barrier draw is advantageous for her racing pattern.
The synthetic form may translate, and fresh horses can surprise in lower-grade company.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Rock Them Jools | 7 | Damian Lane | C J Waller | 59.5kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 6 | Surperb Frost | 4 | Zac Spain | M J Mehegan | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Topmost | 8 | Beau Mertens | Julius Sandhu | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Nostro Roccia | 10 | Craig Newitt | T Busuttin & N Young | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Swift Power | 5 | Teodore Nugent | Dean Grass | 57kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Florina Region | 3 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 57kg | $4.80 |
| 7th | 5 | Ryanman | 2 | Amy Herrmann | M & L Cerchi | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Launceston | 9 | Ryan Houston | Clayton Douglas | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Gijima Gal | 6 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $201.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Peintre's Pride | 1 | Melea Castle | Brooke Verwey-Mitchell | 55kg | $201.00 |
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