Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Thursday 26 February 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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His 2:0-1-1 record at Pakenham over 2500m is encouraging, and recent efforts show he's racing well without winning. The step up in distance suits his staying pedigree, and despite carrying top weight, his form suggests he's the most reliable option in a weak maiden field.
Rapido River benefits from a significant class drop having contested BM52 races recently. The distance suits and Stackhouse's booking adds confidence. While winless, the class drop and proven ability at this level make her a genuine threat.
With only four starts, she has scope for significant improvement, and her recent third at Sale was encouraging. The inside barrier and trainer/jockey combination add appeal. While unproven at the distance, her breeding suggests staying potential, making her worth a value play.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Rapido River | 6 | Daniel Stackhouse | Mitchell Leek | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Phoenician | 3 | Teodore Nugent | E W Ewert | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Soul Mistress | 2 | Zac Spain | K & K Keys | 57.5kg | $2.60 |
| 4th | 6 | Ashina | 4 | Jordan Childs | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $2.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Showfair | 5 | Jake Noonan | A W Noonan | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 2 | St Dominic | 1 | Ryan Houston | Jason Chandler | 58kg |
The Moody/Coleman stable has strong first-up preparation methods, and jockey Luke Cartwright is riding in career-best form.
His consistent form and second-up positioning provide solid foundations, though his inability to win from three starts suggests limited upside. The wide barrier is concerning for a 1000m sprint, but his proven distance form keeps him competitive.
Sassidora brings race fitness and proven 1000m ability to this contest. Her recent third placing and excellent overall time demonstrate competitive ability, while barrier 2 provides tactical advantage.
The blinkers first time and quality jockey booking suggest hidden ability, while barrier 1 provides every chance.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Bold Suitor | 7 | Jake Noonan | A W Noonan | 58kg | $3.70 |
| 2nd | 1 | Big Kapow | 6 | Melea Castle | Rory Hunter | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Chloe First | 5 | Luke Cartwright | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | $2.30 |
| 4th | 3 | Little Richo | 8 | Bree Temple | J D Sadler | 54kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Epic Jewel | 1 | Jye McNeil | R D Griffiths | 56kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Baltic | 4 | Luke Currie | Vincent Hall | 56kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 7 | I'm A Dream Girl | 3 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 56kg | $151.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Sassidora | 2 | Craig Newitt | T Busuttin & N Young | 56kg | $7.50 |
Federalist represents the standout class runner dropping from Group 1 company to maiden level.
Stuntman showed excellent promise with a close second at this track 13 days ago. The inside barrier is ideal for his forward racing style, and the McEvoy stable has him well-placed. While lightly raced, his recent form suggests he can improve with experience.
Irreverent brings the best consistency to this field with four placings from five starts. The wide draw is concerning but her proven ability at this track gives confidence.
Olive Road offers excellent value with a perfect placing record from two starts.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Standard Deviation | 8 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Federalist | 13 | Teodore Nugent | M, W & J Hawkes | 59kg | $2.25 |
| 3rd | 9 | Olive Road | 12 | Jackie Beriman | J C Griffiths | 57.5kg | $15.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Celestial Award | 5 | Michael Dee | Jerome Hunter | 57kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Cadillac Sam | 9 | Luke Currie | C J Waller | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Velvet City | 6 | Ethan Brown | Nathan McPherson | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Stuntman | 1 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 59kg | $3.10 |
| 8th | 7 | Daisy Duck | 3 | Jordan Childs | C J Waller | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 6 | The Dux Nuts | 7 | John Allen | T Busuttin & N Young | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Written Story | 10 | Daniel Stackhouse | Clayton Douglas | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 13 | Cheeky Sneaky | 15 | Valentin Le Boeuf | R J Meunier | 57.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Hurry Up Poppy | 4 | Ruby Lamont | M C Kent | 53.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Irreverent | 14 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Colour Circle | 11 | Brian McGrath | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Packers Journey | 2 | M Sell | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Tartan Queen | 16 | Jaymee Cockram | 57.5kg |
Buvelot presents the strongest winning chance based on recent improvement, finishing a close second at Sale last start. The gelding shows consistent form patterns and benefits from the proven Jye McNeil/R D Griffiths combination.
Midnight Man offers strong each-way value with consistent recent form including two thirds. While maiden status is a concern, his consistency and track familiarity make him a genuine threat.
The lightly raced gelding benefits from a strong trainer/jockey combination, though the extended spell and wide draw present challenges. His raw speed gives him upset potential if fit enough.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Buvelot | 2 | Jye McNeil | R D Griffiths | 59.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 10 | Bee Admired | 11 | Ethan Brown | Charlotte Littlefield | 57kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 7 | Handsome Missile | 10 | Lachlan Neindorf | Reece Goodwin | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 4 | Listening Is Doing | 9 | Bree Temple | J D Sadler | 55.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 8 | New Prospect | 7 | Billy Egan | R D Griffiths | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Transporter | 3 | Beau Mertens | T Busuttin & N Young | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 5 | Midnight Man | 8 | Jordan Childs | M J Mehegan | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 6 | Unholstered | 5 | Jade Da Rose | Ms T Cullen | 59.5kg | $201.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Alpine Way | 4 | Ben Allen | John R Allen | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Brutal Force | 6 | Ben Kennedy | M Croston & G Gilmour | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Flying Riches | 1 | Jason Maskiell | Rachael Cunningham | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 12 | Sumaluv | 12 | John Allen | C Maher | 57kg | $21.00 |
Tiz Worthy brings superior class credentials having contested Group and Listed races, with a strong 1000m record of 2 wins from 4 starts. The significant class drop to BM62 level, combined with the crucial barrier 1 advantage on Pakenham's synthetic track, positions her ideally. Jamie Melham's booking adds confidence, and despite recent inconsistency, her proven ability at this level makes her the standout selection.
His second up record and proven 1000m ability, combined with the favorable barrier 3 draw, makes him a strong threat. The class drop from previous Group racing provides additional confidence despite his youth.
Her recent third at Cranbourne demonstrates current form, and the John Allen booking suggests stable confidence. Despite the moderate barrier draw, her superior speed and class edge make her a strong each-way proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Tiz Worthy | 1 | Jamie Melham | Lloyd Kennewell | 59.5kg | $2.25 |
| 2nd | 6 | Lake Gillear | 2 | Nadia Daniels | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Commands Success | 10 | Holly Durnan | Dwayne Reid | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Yamashita's Gold | 3 | Ethan Brown | Gavin Bedggood | 60kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Party Benefits | 4 | Zac Spain | M J Mehegan | 57kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Steamy Mist | 8 | Patrick Moloney | M M Laurie | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Symphony Of Colour | 6 | John Allen | Niki O'Shea | 60kg | $16.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Ruby Avenue | 9 | Daniel Stackhouse | Andrea Leek | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Paradise Island | 7 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Bangholme | 5 | Ben Melham | A R McGregor | 60kg |
Bohemian Angel presents the strongest winning chance based on recent form consistency and proven ability at this track and distance. Two consecutive seconds, including at Pakenham last start, demonstrate she's in peak form.
Electric Elvis shapes as the likely leader from the inside barrier and brings solid recent form. The addition of blinkers first time and strong jockey-trainer combination provide confidence, though the significant class rise and top weight present challenges. His forward position should ensure he gets every chance in the run.
Cafe Au Lait brings the advantage of being second up from a spell, historically a strong angle for this filly. The booking of quality jockey Jye McNeil and her maiden win last start provide confidence, though the significant step up in class presents the main challenge. Her tactical speed should see her positioned prominently.
His recent second at Kembla Grange and the Hawkes stable training provide confidence, though the wide barrier and class rise present challenges.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Bohemian Angel | 10 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56.5kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 6 | Cafe Au Lait | 5 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Electric Elvis | 2 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 60kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Paparazzo | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Craig Weeding | 60kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Flash Alice | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | P Stokes | 58kg | $8.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Shyleah | 9 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Ocean Bay | 4 | Beau Mertens | Gavin Bedggood | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 5 | Pietro Road | 8 | Teodore Nugent | M, W & J Hawkes | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Count Of Toulouse | 6 | Jackie Beriman | Dale Short | 58.5kg | $81.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Ferocious Frankie | 7 | Ethan Brown | T Busuttin & N Young | 57.5kg |
The addition of blinkers and bubble cheeker suggests connections expect improvement. His proven ability to finish strongly from midfield positions suits the expected fast tempo, and the wide barrier allows him to settle where he's comfortable.
The inside barrier is crucial given the track bias favoring positions 1-6, and her second-up pattern aligns with improvement. The light weight (55.5kg) provides a significant advantage, and her proven ability to handle the track conditions makes her a strong each-way proposition.
Craig Williams' booking signals stable confidence, and the addition of blinkers suggests they're looking for the extra edge to break his maiden. His recent placings at this track show he handles the conditions well.
The inside barrier (6) provides tactical options, and his last-start win at this track demonstrates he handles the conditions. The 20-day break suggests he's been freshened for this assignment.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Plunger | 1 | Lachlan Neindorf | E Jusufovic | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 6 | Savoyard | 4 | Ethan Brown | C I Brown | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 10 | Sapphire Siren | 3 | Teodore Nugent | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 55.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Berlemont | 8 | Luke Currie | M C Kent | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Ten Warriors | 5 | Craig Williams | T Rogers | 56kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 8 | The Benchmark | 9 | Zac Spain | M J Mehegan | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Silver Bullet | 7 | Ben Allen | Charlotte Littlefield | 57kg | $3.90 |
| 8th | 4 | I Stand By You | 6 | Ben Melham | M, W & J Hawkes | 57kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Nostro Roccia | 10 | Daniel Stackhouse | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Cyber Link | 11 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 57kg | $19.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Sparkling Luck | 2 | Michael Dee | Lloyd Kennewell | 55.5kg |
Previous Pakenham success and improving trajectory make him hard to beat despite the wide draw.
Admire Fluke offers strong each-way value with proven 2000m ability and consistent form. His Wangaratta win over this distance and recent Listed placing at Hobart show he can handle this class rise. The good barrier draw and high place rate make him a reliable proposition for the placings.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Houdini | 11 | Ethan Brown | Gavin Bedggood | 60kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 14 | Ginger Sweet | 1 | Jye McNeil | Peter Gelagotis | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 3rd | 13 | Purler Patch | 12 | Zac Spain | K & K Keys | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Monte Cassino | 5 | Billy Egan | Glen Thompson | 58.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Baffleck | 3 | Jason Maskiell | Ms N Burke | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Sixty Grand | 7 | Daniel Stackhouse | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Somethingsostrong | 9 | Jake Noonan | A W Noonan | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Cable De Vega | 8 | Lachlan Neindorf | Michael Huglin | 56kg | $16.00 |
| 9th | 16 | Zeusmas | 10 | Mitchell Leek | 55kg | $151.00 | |
| 10th | 8 | Xtrarevz | 2 | Koby Jennings | Margot McDougal | 58.5kg | $81.00 |
| 11th | 3 | Valiant Sun | 13 | Ben Allen | Liam Howley | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Admire Fluke | 4 | Harry Coffey | M M Laurie | 59kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Russian Roni | 16 | Ms R Kelly | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Track Patcher | 6 | Nadia Daniels | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Filadeel | 15 | John Allen | C Maher | 57kg | |
| Scr | 15 | French Graffiti | 14 | R Cluning | 55kg |
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