Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Sunday 8 March 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 8 races at Muswellbrook. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Craig Williams booking elite intent signal for first up return (1:0-1-0 record). Barrier 4 perfect for midfield run in very fast tempo sprint favoring leaders/on-pacers at Muswellbrook. No soft exposure but class edge over unraced rivals in BM58/maiden volatility.
Barrier 2 suits likely leader role in very fast tempo favoring on-pacers (25% leaders win rate). Soft track proven (4:0-1-0), first up record workable.
Light weight advantage on soft 6, distance suited (5:0-1-1). Solid each-way value.
Recent Kempsey 2nd on heavy 9 proves stamina for soft 6. Long spell (209 days) risk but first up record ok, distance form solid.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Autumn King | 4 | Craig Williams | P Messara & L Gavranich | 61kg | $1.24 |
| 2nd | 4 | Raised To Whinny | 5 | Jake Pracey-Holmes | M A Milton | 57kg | $16.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Alby's Mate | 6 | Billy Cray | Ms K Simpkins | 56kg | $61.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Moke Lake | 9 | Chad Lever | P H Bloomfield | 55.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Zoushadow | 7 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 57kg | $81.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Thirty Degrees | 3 | Shannen Llewellyn | Cassandra Stummer | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Harmene | 10 | Mitchell Bell | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Warbreccan | 8 | Grant Buckley | T J Wicks | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Street Empress | 1 | Andrew Gibbons | Joel Wilkes | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Varazze | 2 | Liberty Smyth | Joseph Burges | 51.5kg | $81.00 |
| 11th | 2 | My Nicconi Boy | 11 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Julia Presits | 59kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Perasta | 6 | Nikki Pollock | 55kg |
As a debutant from elite stable Bjorn Baker, Flight Of Power tops form assessment via proxy evaluation: 40% trainer strength (proven first-up/debut record), 30% jockey quality (Chad Lever 20% with trainer), 30% pedigree suitability for sprint. Barrier 7 advantageous, midfield map ideal for very fast tempo suiting strong finishers at Muswellbrook 1000m. Preferred over other debutants due to superior connections.
Drumfire ranks highly on proxy form (elite Waterhouse & Bott stable excels with debutants/first-starters at provincial sprints). Costin (16% at Muswellbrook) boosts connections. Despite wide draw, likely fast tempo and leader bias (25% win rate) favour forward runners. Soft 6 untested but big stables adapt well.
Barrier 1 perfect for sprint leaders (25% win rate). Blinkers first time from Freedman yard adds appeal. Very fast tempo suits if leads; Soft 6 query but Good 4 form strong. Outclasses Gripfast's weaker 6th.
Value debutant with excellent proxy profile: Freedman stable (strong first-starters), Magorrian 22% combo win rate, barrier 4 ideal for Muswellbrook 1000m leader bias. Blinkers FT sharpens. Fast tempo may suit if settles handy.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Drumfire | 10 | Winona Costin | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Fawlty Affairs | 4 | Lee Magorrian | Richard & Will Freedman | 58kg | $14.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Harrybegood | 9 | William A Stanley | K A Lees | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 10 | My Queen | 8 | Andrew Gibbons | K A Lees | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Flight Of Power | 7 | Chad Lever | Bjorn Baker | 58kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Greyt Remlap | 6 | Mitch Stapleford | S I Singleton | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Doubella | 1 | Mitchell Bell | Richard & Will Freedman | 56kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Keystrike | 11 | Jean Van Overmeire | Peter Snowden | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 9th | 8 | Cosmic Jinks | 5 | Anna Roper | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Twiggies | 3 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Julia Presits | 56kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Gripfast | 2 | Reece Jones | Sara Ryan | 57kg | $51.00 |
Fast tempo favours midfield position.
Fast tempo tests back position but Snowden quality/Peter Snowden stable elevates over less exposed rivals. Not top pick due to barrier but clear threat.
Maiden volatility suits consistent recent form over long-spellers.
Most experienced runner in maiden, fast tempo suits forward map. Clear value overlay vs peers.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Olympian | 5 | Craig Williams | P Messara & L Gavranich | 58.5kg | $1.85 |
| 2nd | 9 | Ready Made Heir | 1 | Anna Roper | Ms K Buchanan | 56.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Fortheo | 4 | Shannen Llewellyn | W T Wilkes | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 4th | 12 | Zousanity | 2 | Andrew Gibbons | W T Wilkes | 56.5kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Dundeel Flyer | 10 | Jean Van Overmeire | Peter Snowden | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Think Back | 3 | Mitch Stapleford | S I Singleton | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Fat Barry | 9 | Lee Magorrian | Ms K Buchanan | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Wild Legacy | 7 | Mitchell Bell | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Cantankerous Vixen | 8 | Nick Heywood | Jay Hopkins | 57kg | $201.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Luchadora | 6 | Daniel A Northey | L K Roberts | 57kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Raining Luck | 9 | Damien Smith | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Brazen Diva | 6 | J A Sylvester | 57kg |
Consistent recent runs (534) in BM58 company, improving trend suits moderate-fast tempo favouring on-pace/midfield types. Barrier 10 manageable at Muswellbrook 1750m.
Moderate-fast tempo suits midfield map.
Muswellbrook record (1:0-0-1 at T/D), barrier 3 perfect for on-pace bias in Soft6 BM58. Improving (7423371653), tempo suits forward run. Strong place chance despite soft concerns.
Significant class rise but low exposure (2 starts) offers upside in volatile BM58. No soft experience but proxy via trainer/jockey solid, fitness peak suits Sunday country.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Grandini | 8 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 59.5kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 12 | Firealarm | 1 | Hollie Hull | Damien Smith | 52kg | $41.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Snitzenegger | 4 | Luke Rolls | J A Sylvester | 55.5kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Disco Prince | 5 | Christian Reith | D J Hatch | 62kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 2 | Dipierdomenico | 2 | Cassey Williams | R J Knight | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 10 | My Diamond Boy | 3 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Julia Presits | 55kg | $19.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Ever Was | 11 | Jake Pracey-Holmes | J A Steinmetz | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Keinbah's Warrior | 6 | Grant Buckley | Damien Smith | 59kg | $8.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Kahraba | 7 | Anna Roper | Denim Wynen | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 10th | 3 | Big Short | 9 | Zac Wadick | D J Hatch | 59.5kg | $10.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Farraige | 10 | Liberty Smyth | D Wagstaff | 51kg | $81.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Think I'm Irish | 3 | D Wagstaff | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Kaval | 1 | Mark Cross | 55kg |
Recent Scone 2nd despite wide draw shows class; elite connections and fitness edge outweigh barrier in fair Muswellbrook 1280m setup.
High soft suitability and barrier 7 position well for Muswellbrook's fair layout.
Recent Scone win fresh shows talent; second-up stats supportive. Barrier and map fine for provincial; progressive type with upside despite class jump.
Gelsey offers value with ideal barrier 5 in inside-favoured track, plus Muswellbrook record. Suits as place chance in volatile Class 2.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Andale Andale | 5 | Anna Roper | Lyle Chandler | 56kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 9 | Gelsey | 4 | Luke Rolls | Tim McIntosh | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Whateley | 3 | Jean Van Overmeire | T S Howlett | 61kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Laizabout | 2 | Kody Nestor | W T Wilkes | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 14 | Bonoyster | 9 | Grant Buckley | N F Boland | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Currumbin Alley | 7 | Mitchell Bell | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56.5kg | $2.90 |
| 7th | 3 | Star Prediction | 1 | Hollie Hull | A P Ball | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Favour The Bold | 13 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 9th | 11 | Black Nature | 11 | Jacob Stiff | Dar Lunn | 53.5kg | $51.00 |
| 10th | 15 | Dartbrook | 8 | Shannen Llewellyn | J A Sylvester | 55kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 6 | Mirai San | 6 | Christian Reith | S I Singleton | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 12th | 5 | Glenbower | 10 | Lee Magorrian | Liam Ruddy | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 13th | 8 | Egyptologist | 12 | Jake Pracey-Holmes | Brett Thompson | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Shine Your Light | 1 | John W Ramsey | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Ghaznavi | 12 | Cameron Crockett | 55kg |
Cavanough stable in form, Bell 30% for horse. Soft 6 suits less but track mastery and very fast tempo favour mid-speed.
Barrier 3 perfect for Muswellbrook 900m sprint leaders (25% win rate). Very fast tempo suits forward runner; soft 6 ok (4:0-1-1).
First-up 3:1-0-0 but only 1:1-0-0 at 900m lacking Saratoga's dominance. Not top pick as form edges to local proven.
Recent form 412 fresh off spell success; barrier 7 suits midfield in fast tempo. Significant class rise but light 53.5kg and Northam prep undervalued vs shorter first-uppers.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Durova | 2 | Nick Heywood | Cameron Crockett | 63kg | $3.70 |
| 2nd | 8 | King Larry | 10 | Shannen Llewellyn | W T Wilkes | 55kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 11 | Super Freds | 4 | Jean Van Overmeire | Jay Hopkins | 55kg | $91.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Saratoga Power | 9 | Mitchell Bell | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 61.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Play My Song | 7 | Leeshelle Small | R P Northam | 53.5kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Cumboogle | 1 | Jake Pracey-Holmes | Brett Thompson | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Cool Storm | 6 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 9 | Ritzsun | 3 | Mitch Stapleford | S I Singleton | 55kg | $4.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Cupid's Kiss | 5 | Luke Rolls | J A Sylvester | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Two Ya Got | 11 | Kody Nestor | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 63.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7 | Harbour Gold | 8 | Anna Roper | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 55kg |
Fast tempo suits her closing style despite wide draw on fair Muswellbrook track. Form trumps minor map concerns.
Cavanough stable in form, Mitchell Bell excellent at track (24% win rate), their combo hits 35%. Class drop helps, clear place chance.
Barrier 1 ideal for moderate inside bias and leader favouritism (33% win rate). High-volatility Class 5 suits track specialists.
Barrier 2 perfect for inside bias, likely leader in fast tempo.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Chidiac | 6 | Mitchell Bell | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 55.5kg | $3.20 |
| 2nd | 9 | Fingers Hunter | 4 | Luke Rolls | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 55.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 13 | Miss Rebel | 5 | Jake Pracey-Holmes | Cassandra Stummer | 54kg | $61.00 |
| 4th | 17 | Red Rags To Bulls | 7 | Mitch Stapleford | J R Gask | 54kg | $51.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Pride To Follow | 3 | Grant Buckley | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 55.5kg | $20.00 |
| 6th | 15 | Lady Olenna | 14 | Winona Costin | P Messara & L Gavranich | 54kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Upwardly Mobile | 9 | Leeshelle Small | R P Northam | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Shropshire Lad | 12 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 56kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Clear Thinking | 10 | Craig Williams | P Messara & L Gavranich | 57kg | $1.85 |
| 10th | 14 | Christa | 8 | Jean Van Overmeire | T S Howlett | 54kg | $61.00 |
| 11th | 4 | Hulu | 1 | Nick Heywood | Cameron Crockett | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 16 | New Pharoah | 11 | Anna Roper | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 13th | 2 | Navy Steel | 2 | Kody Nestor | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| 14th | 12 | Cresta Run | 13 | Christian Reith | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 55.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Tavros | 18 | C K Martin | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Great Point | 19 | R P Northam | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Pensativa | 6 | Lou Mary | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Unreachable | 3 | J A Sylvester | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 19 | Warrior For Peace | 7 | Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 20 | Tough Guy | 12 | Melissa Dennett | 56kg |
Midfield map from barrier 5 perfect for predicted fast tempo favouring strong finishers at Muswellbrook 1450m. Soft track unproven but class drop others have faced stronger opposition.
Improving form capped by strong BM66 4th L1 despite pressure. Reece Jones (23% with trainer) booking positive. Barrier 9 workable from midfield in fair Muswellbrook layout.
Recent BM64 4th showed finishing fight; prior two wins demonstrate pattern. Luke Rolls (25% recent) boosts connections.
Recent BM58 3rd L1 after track success shows fitness; light 55.5kg ideal. Soft record (16:3-1-2) suits conditions.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Tanglewood Jimmy | 7 | Kody Nestor | W T Wilkes | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | Athena's Treasure | 5 | Louise Day | T S Howlett | 59.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 3 | Flamboyant Lad | 2 | Anna Roper | Liam Ruddy | 60kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Ivy Diva | 8 | Luke Rolls | Tim McIntosh | 57.5kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 14 | Yacht Girl | 12 | Mitch Stapleford | S I Singleton | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Mellencamp | 11 | Deon Le Roux | A M Boyle | 55.5kg | $19.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Antilocapra | 9 | Reece Jones | R P Northam | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 1 | Xtra Approval | 1 | Hollie Hull | A P Ball | 62kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Ring Ahoy | 4 | Christian Reith | D J Hatch | 61.5kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Ken'ker | 14 | Liberty Smyth | D Wagstaff | 53.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 6 | Off The Scale | 6 | Mitchell Bell | Lou Mary | 59.5kg | $3.90 |
| 12th | 9 | Miss Checkoni | 13 | Leeshelle Small | Nick Mitchell | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 13th | 4 | To Be Frank | 10 | Jenny Duggan | Ms S Grills | 60kg | $21.00 |
| 14th | 13 | Mischievous Molly | 3 | Andrew Gibbons | W T Wilkes | 56kg | $31.00 |
Before the races, not after
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