Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Sunday 15 March 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 7 races at Grafton. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Debutant with strongest proxy signals: barrier 3 exploits weak inside bias at Grafton sprint, Jake Bayliss (15% recent) adds quality. Maps midfield in moderate-fast tempo favouring on-pacers over backmarkers. Superior to other debutants lacking similar positives.
Barrier 1 is elite draw in Grafton sprint with inside preference. Shares top jockey Mallyon and trainer M J Dunn with #7, indicating stable double chance. Light weight, good map.
Strong debutant proxy: barrier 5 suits inside bias, Andrew Mallyon (17% Grafton wins, 16% with trainer) signals intent. M J Dunn stable provides quality. Maps well midfield in on-pace race. Solid next best despite no form, edges others on connections and draw over wider barriers.
Value debutant with barrier 6 (inside favoured), aggressive gear changes (blinkers, concussion plates, muffs, lugging bit) suggest trainer targeting win. Local Parramore/Matheson combo. Maps midfield well.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Why Wait | 1 | Andrew Mallyon | M J Dunn | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Weownachevy | 6 | Kirk Matheson | A Parramore | 57kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Wild Monarch | 3 | Jake Bayliss | Ms J Graham | 57kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 1 | Ashkirk | 8 | Brandon Lerena | M J Dunn | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Sweet Enchantress | 2 | Luke Rolls | J D Shelton | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Prestige Blue | 7 | Dylan Turner | Jordan Lee | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Ravaged | 9 | Jett Newman | Lyndall Olson | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Prestige Serial | 4 | Olivia Dalton | Jordan Lee | 53kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Subsiding | 5 | Andrew Mallyon | M J Dunn | 55kg |
Dropping in class, midfield position ideal for slow tempo on fair Grafton staying track. Soft 5 record 2 wins from 10 starts.
Vermeer has excellent staying form with 2 wins from 8 at distance and consistent Grafton record (6:0-2-1). Recent 4th in this race 10 days ago off light weight.
Barrier 1 perfect for leaders in BM58 on fair Grafton. Soft record solid. Maps forward with likely leaders #1-2 setting slow tempo he can dictate.
Soft record outstanding 56:7-7-9.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Vermeer | 8 | Olivia Dalton | S B Lee | 59kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 5 | Redadel | 3 | Grady Spokes | B D Bellamy | 56kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Mr Plume | 4 | Liberty Smyth | Sally Taylor | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 4th | 2 | Dipierdomenico | 9 | Peter Graham | R J Knight | 61kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Libby | 2 | Luke Rolls | Ridge Wilson | 55.5kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Shillong | 7 | Raymond Spokes | L J Clapham | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Nature Boy | 6 | Emily Farr | Ms L Selby | 57.5kg | $4.80 |
| 8th | 9 | Sir Zino | 5 | Jon Grisedale | Ms V McLennan | 55kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Tycoon Lad | 1 | Ms L Selby | 55kg |
Poseidon's Son tops form assessment with exceptional recent record including 2 track wins at distance (2:2-0-0) and latest BM74 victory 10 days ago. Soft track proven (2 wins/5 soft starts). Barrier 3 ideal for Grafton fairness, midfield map suits fast tempo.
Count Nicholas maps perfectly from barrier 1 as likely leader in fast tempo on backmarker-unfriendly track (0% win rate for 7+). Consistent prep with win two back. Soft exposure ok. Value in top 3 despite no distance wins.
Gaylord excels in form with perfect Grafton record (2:2-0-0) and high soft suitability. Second up sharpens fitness after recent trial-like run. Midfield map viable on fair Grafton layout despite barrier 8. Class rise manageable given trainer quality (M J Dunn) and 50% place rate. Strong each-way chance behind top pick.
Soft proven. Wide draw offsets experience on fair track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Poseidon's Son | 3 | Liberty Smyth | M J Dunn | 55kg | $1.45 |
| 2nd | 6 | Count Nicholas | 1 | Bella Youngberry | Adam Campton | 55kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 4 | Bow | 6 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 55kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Peony | 5 | Grady Spokes | Jason Reilly | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Love Rat | 7 | Hollie Hull | Ms C Rode | 52kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Starzam | 4 | Dylan Turner | Fleur Henley | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 7th | 8 | Cabsav | 9 | Luke Rolls | J D Shelton | 55kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Gaylord | 8 | Jett Newman | M J Dunn | 55kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Boom Court | 2 | Indiana Turner | 55kg |
Fast tempo suits closing style despite wide draw on fair Grafton chute. Elite Dunn stable booking with Bayliss on stablemate adds confidence.
Solid place chance in BM58-style maiden volatility.
Grafton trackwork (9:0-0-3), light weight suits Soft 5, second up from spell. Fast tempo and on-pace bias may suit if improves; massive overlay vs form merit in upset-prone Grafton maidens.
No form penalty per rules; strong trainer profile (first-starter success implied), quality jockey booking (19% with trainer), midfield map exploits Grafton fairness. Value overlay in high-volatility maiden; stable form trumps unknowns.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Lord Of Flames | 7 | Andrew Mallyon | M J Dunn | 58.5kg | $1.95 |
| 2nd | 4 | Lofty Macsporran | 8 | Dylan Turner | M J Dunn | 58.5kg | $19.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Amazigh Torque | 1 | Jake Bayliss | M J Dunn | 56.5kg | $3.70 |
| 4th | 2 | Musumeci | 5 | Jodi Worley | Daniel Stanley | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Commedia | 10 | Jett Newman | Peter G Sinclair | 56.5kg | $3.60 |
| 6th | 8 | Egyptian Lass | 9 | Grady Spokes | T A Commerford | 55kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 3 | De La Salle | 4 | Liberty Smyth | Sally Taylor | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Eccasdash | 3 | Noriyuki Masuda | Ms E Giggins | 59kg | $151.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Powerful Dolphins | 2 | Raymond Spokes | Shannon Manwarring | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Not So Dubious | 11 | Jon Grisedale | Wayne S Lawson | 58.5kg | $51.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Reds King | 6 | Danny Peisley | N F Creighton | 58.5kg | $151.00 |
Fast tempo suits closing style on fair Grafton 1400m layout. Sunvolt top form pick.
Midfield map ideal in fast tempo where backmarkers struggle (0% win rate).
Soft/heavy performer suits conditions. Fast tempo may suit late closer on fair Grafton straight despite wide draw.
Grafton veteran (16:0-1-3) with recent 4th/3rd at track dropping to maiden. Soft record 20:0-2-3 ideal for conditions. Leader/proven local edges out others for value.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Launcher | 6 | Karl Zechner | Allan Chau | 59kg | $1.95 |
| 2nd | 8 | Sunvolt | 9 | Danny Peisley | D L Matts | 58.5kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 9 | Jennibelle | 11 | Luke Rolls | J D Shelton | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Stainless Steel | 13 | Jodi Worley | P J Cunningham | 59kg | $71.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Kiss'n Dance | 5 | Peter Graham | Fleur Henley | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Whatsthetimemrwolf | 2 | Raymond Spokes | B D Bellamy | 59kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Some Girls | 12 | Kirk Matheson | Jason Reilly | 57kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Pacific Reel | 7 | Grady Spokes | Shannon Manwarring | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 14 | Too Hard To Find | 1 | Jake Bayliss | Samantha McGuren | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Turpin's Torment | 8 | Cassey Williams | R J Knight | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 12 | Washik | 3 | Ms J Pratten | 57kg | $151.00 | |
| 12th | 6 | Frictional Force | 10 | Brandon Lerena | J D Shelton | 58.5kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 10 | Sol Filia | 14 | S B Lee | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Alkebulan | 4 | B A Gentle | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Powerful Dolphins | 15 | Shannon Manwarring | 57kg |
Class drop from BM66, strong recent finishes, and Luke Rolls (19% with trainer) boost chances. Soft 5 ok (1:0:1), midfield map ideal for fast tempo on fair Grafton 1600m.
Lerena (10% Grafton) adds intent, midfield map suits fast tempo. Soft 5 handled before.
Heavy record (3 wins from 4) bodes well for Soft 5, consistent (17x44245373). Backmarker map risk in fast tempo but Grafton fairness helps.
Wet performer suits Soft 5, distance expert.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Pressalong | 11 | Luke Rolls | S B Lee | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Zou Big Boy | 13 | Emily Farr | Ms L Selby | 63kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Beearetee | 9 | Jett Newman | Shane Everson | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 11 | Labarna | 2 | Dylan Turner | Jordan Lee | 57kg | $51.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Explosive Power | 8 | Brandon Lerena | Allan Chau | 59.5kg | $2.80 |
| 6th | 4 | Montgomery | 1 | Grady Spokes | Jason Reilly | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Castel Trosino | 12 | Danny Peisley | T A Commerford | 60.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 14 | Cowgirl Lilly | 5 | Olivia Dalton | Samantha McGuren | 53kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Piedi Veloci | 4 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 56.5kg | $4.80 |
| 10th | 7 | Cosmic Coco | 14 | Jake Bayliss | Samantha McGuren | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Mammoth Mountain | 10 | Peter Graham | P J Cunningham | 61kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Alabama Girl | 3 | Shane Everson | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Buffett | 6 | Kacie Adams | P J Kelly | 57kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Wakadaisho | 7 | S B Lee | 57kg |
Barrier 4 positions ideally as likely leader in fast tempo race on fair Grafton layout. Recent fitness (24 days) and Peisley's booking outweigh soft track limitations (2:0-0-1).
Barrier 5 suits midfield settling on Soft5 where backmarkers struggle (0% win rate). Class drop and recent fitness make solid place claim despite modest strike rate.
High track suitability and Rolls booking positive, though long spell needs fitness query. Soft form 2:1-0-0 suits conditions; overlay in upset-prone Grafton CL1.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Rich Star | 4 | Danny Peisley | C R Manson | 59kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Coco Dreaming | 2 | Grady Spokes | Sally Taylor | 56kg | $20.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Referees | 11 | Andrew Mallyon | Peter G Sinclair | 58.5kg | $2.05 |
| 4th | 5 | Sivo | 6 | Raymond Spokes | Daniel Wheeler | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Midwest Princess | 3 | Kirk Matheson | Jason Reilly | 55kg | $51.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Highwire Girl | 9 | Brandon Lerena | J D Shelton | 55.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Mini Angel | 8 | Dylan Turner | Samantha McGuren | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Prestige Ice | 7 | Luke Rolls | Jordan Lee | 56kg | $6.50 |
| 9th | 12 | Cianwood City | 1 | Jett Newman | Shane Everson | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Mum Knows | 10 | Karl Zechner | J D Shelton | 55kg | $61.00 |
| 11th | 8 | Artzino | 12 | Olivia Dalton | Jason Reilly | 53.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Jade Trees | 14 | B J Dodson | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Radio Ga Ga | 13 | Kacie Adams | I C Marks | 55kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Picupstixx | 5 | Jon Grisedale | Wayne S Lawson | 55kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.