Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Sunday 22 March 2026
Our top pick won 5 of 8 races at Bairnsdale. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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All runners lack form data, triggering proxy evaluation. Wentworth Falls tops via elite A&S Freedman stable, experienced Stockdale (27% track strike), barrier 3 positioning for moderate tempo. Track bias to backmarkers/closers neutralised by map.
Proxy assessment ranks Sacre Bleu highly on barrier 1 (slightly advantageous) and McNeil booking in jockey-led maiden. Bairnsdale 1600m fairer start suits inside; moderate tempo allows forward settling. Lacks data but connections elevate over outsiders. Solid place chance.
Just Basil earns third via barrier 5 (midfield per speed map), Jennings' solid Bairnsdale record (10% wins), and Huglin preparation. Moderate tempo and backmarker bias offer scope. Place upside in volatile country race.
Barrier 4, Stanley's 17% Bairnsdale/20% recent form provide proxy lift. Track bias favours closers in moderate tempo; handy settling suits.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Wentworth Falls | 3 | Thomas Stockdale | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $1.45 |
| 2nd | 6 | Mr Myrtlevale | 6 | Valentin Le Boeuf | I R Jones | 59kg | $17.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | War No More | 7 | Ben Kennedy | Ms H Stephens | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Miss Camelot | 8 | Teodore Nugent | Jason Warren | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Just Basil | 5 | Koby Jennings | Michael Huglin | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 6th | 3 | Sacre Bleu | 1 | Jye McNeil | Reece Goodwin | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Dun Dozen | 2 | Aaron Sweeney | Christine Sexton | 59.5kg | $61.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Shines Discreetly | 4 | Jett Stanley | Matthew Brown | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Elite Pete | 9 | Jackie Beriman | Ms S Trolove | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
Barrier 5 is neutral in Bairnsdale's sprint chute where inside/middle barriers are key. Jockey Maskiell brings 15% recent strike rate. Lacks form but proxy factors (40% trainer, 30% jockey, 30% pedigree assumed suitable) elevate it over field.
Open Fire rates highly on proxy evaluation with barrier 3 ideally suited to Bairnsdale 1200m sprint dynamics favouring inside draws and leaders. Good 4 suits unexposed runners.
Hatalook benefits from barrier 2 in Bairnsdale's tight sprint where inside speed dominates (leaders 33% win rate). Light weight and likely forward positioning suit moderate-fast tempo. Nugent's 15% recent strike adds reliability. Solid third pick in maiden with proxy strengths aligning to track bias despite absent form history.
McNeil's elite booking (20% recent) elevates proxy score in debutant maiden. Tongue tie first time indicates fitness prep.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | I Said So | 5 | Jason Maskiell | Ms W Kelly | 59.5kg | $1.65 |
| 2nd | 9 | Hatalook | 2 | Teodore Nugent | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 57.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 4 | Mywifeisnothere | 11 | Patrick Moloney | Simone Walker | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Open Fire | 3 | Thomas Stockdale | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 57kg | $4.80 |
| 5th | 6 | Sneaky Russian | 8 | Jye McNeil | Reece Goodwin | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Charleanor | 9 | Koby Jennings | Michael Huglin | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Dempsey | 4 | Sheridan Clarke | E P Francese | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 12 | Woolf's Prize | 7 | Jett Stanley | I R Jones | 57kg | $91.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Covered In Cash | 1 | Rhys Mc Leod | Carly Thomas | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 10th | 7 | The Dorkstar | 10 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ms S Trolove | 59kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Table Twentyeight | 12 | Nick Ryan | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Dun Gracefully | 6 | Ben Kennedy | Ms C Martindale | 57.5kg |
As a debutant maiden at Bairnsdale 1000m sprint, Mainmankash tops form assessment via proxy factors despite zero race data. Barrier 5 neutral, likely leader in fast tempo suiting track's leader bias.
Sapphire Reign ranks highly as second pick in this all-debutant maiden. Barrier 4 advantageous in Bairnsdale 1000m sprint chute favouring inside. Light weight, neutral map for fast tempo, and Ryan Houston's 9% combo with Archibalds add appeal.
Zane Zena earns third via connections strength from top trainer L & T Corstens & W Larkin. Liam Riordan's 10% recent form and 8% combo rate positive. Barrier 7 manageable despite fast tempo, suits balanced Bairnsdale bias. Lacks data but proxy factors competitive.
Blinkers first time could sharpen debut. Koby Jennings' 10% track strike and Huglin trainer suit country maiden.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Mainmankash | 5 | Jason Maskiell | K F Milham | 59.5kg | $1.50 |
| 2nd | 10 | Sapphire Reign | 4 | Ryan Houston | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 57kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 3 | He's Fierce | 1 | Koby Jennings | Michael Huglin | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Zane Zena | 7 | Liam Riordan | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Inner Thoughts | 2 | Ben Kennedy | Rachael Cunningham | 57kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Zouie | 9 | Jackie Beriman | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 57kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Fromrussiawithlove | 8 | Thomas Stockdale | Carly Thomas | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Highland Diva | 6 | Sally Wynne | Susie Wells | 57.5kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Rock Glory | 10 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ms S Trolove | 57.5kg | $18.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Flamingo Flyer | 3 | Patrick Moloney | Clayton Douglas | 59kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Cheeky Doll | 11 | W J Wood | 57.5kg |
Best proxy form assessment for debutant with barrier 1 perfectly suited to Bairnsdale's tight sprint chute favouring leaders. Jason Warren's stable strength and Jett Stanley's track success (17% wins) outweigh lack of race data. Fast tempo and inside draw give control in leader-favouring country sprint.
Strong proxy via connections, though lacks Aussie Adaptor's map advantage.
Barrier 2 provides strong map advantage in leader-favouring Bairnsdale 1000m, positioning ahead of midfielders despite lack of form. Value place option in fast tempo where handy runners thrive.
Gear changes suggest peaking fitness from solid trainer Nick Ryan.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Buvelot | 5 | Jye McNeil | R D Griffiths | 59.5kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 2 | Auckland | 4 | Teodore Nugent | Simone Walker | 59.5kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 10 | The Cruiser | 6 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ms S Trolove | 54kg | $14.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Moonlight Rustler | 8 | Patrick Moloney | W J Wood | 54kg | $41.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Master Of Chant | 7 | Ruby Lamont | R C Manning | 50kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Aussie Adaptor | 1 | Jett Stanley | Jason Warren | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Machinist | 2 | Ben Kennedy | M Croston & G Gilmour | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 7 | Irresistible Sir | 10 | Aaron Sweeney | R C Manning | 54kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Doctor Coto | 9 | Jade Da Rose | R Gillahan | 54kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Our Beau | 3 | Rhys Mc Leod | Nick Ryan | 60kg | $11.00 |
| 11th | 8 | I Could Do Better | 11 | Sheridan Clarke | Ms J Crosbie | 54kg | $151.00 |
Struggle Street earns second via excellent barrier 1 and light weight in country BM62. Bairnsdale 1200m sprint chute strongly favours inside barriers for leaders; aligns with track's early speed advantage despite neutral inside stats.
Blinkers first time from active trainer R D Griffiths adds upside in formless field.
Gear mods (bubble cheeker FT) signal fitness in low-reliability BM62. Midfield map viable with moderate-fast tempo; exploits Sunday country volatility where connections shine over absent form.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Struggle Street | 1 | Ruby Lamont | Reece Goodwin | 53.5kg | $2.90 |
| 2nd | 4 | Cash Converter | 4 | Thomas Stockdale | Carly Thomas | 58.5kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 10 | I'm Dynamite | 6 | Sheridan Clarke | Susie Wells | 54kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Joltin' Joe | 10 | Jason Maskiell | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 59kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Stewart | 8 | Teodore Nugent | Ms S Trolove | 55.5kg | $3.70 |
| 6th | 6 | Wild Dancer | 5 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56.5kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Listening Is Doing | 2 | Bree Temple | J D Sadler | 54.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Lord Paramount | 3 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ms S Trolove | 54kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Supido's Choice | 7 | Patrick Moloney | R D Griffiths | 60kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 1 | Louis Barthas | 9 | Rhys Mc Leod | Nick Ryan | 60kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Ocean's Jen | 11 | Aaron Sweeney | Andrew Perdon | 56kg |
Barrier 4 allows perfect midfield settling in moderate-slow tempo, suiting Bairnsdale's tight turns where backmarkers struggle. Jockey Stockdale excels locally (27% wins), outweighing gear tweak risks.
Quite The Lass earns second pick via superior draw (barrier 1) and light weight in weight-spread field, aligning with Bairnsdale's positional dynamics despite no form. Jye McNeil's quality booking indicates intent, and track bias favours backmarkers/closers in moderate tempo. Gear removal could unlock improvement.
Proshow selected third as topweight likely carries genuine class superiority in BM62, with Jett Stanley's local proficiency (17% wins) and trainer Warren's quality. Neutral barrier 7 suits midfield settling amid moderate-slow tempo and backmarker bias. Reliable threat if leaders control early phases.
Barrier 6 enables midfield-back settling to exploit backmarker bias in slow tempo staying race. Undervalued relative to formless rivals; roughy upside if connections click amid Bairnsdale's closer-friendly shape.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Quite The Lass | 1 | Jye McNeil | Reece Goodwin | 56.5kg | $3.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | Luckett | 8 | Rhys Mc Leod | Dominic Sutton | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Dundonald | 9 | Patrick Moloney | G M Moloney | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Super Mirage | 4 | Thomas Stockdale | Gavin Bedggood | 59.5kg | $1.85 |
| 5th | 7 | Vistetto | 2 | Jackie Beriman | Brent Butcher | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 10 | A Beautiful Noise | 3 | Ruby Lamont | Malcolm Leys | 50kg | $81.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Baffleck | 6 | Jason Maskiell | Ms N Burke | 59kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 1 | Proshow | 7 | Jett Stanley | Jason Warren | 60kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Intuitu | 5 | Emily Pozman | A Rosolini | 58kg | |
| Scr | 9 | In Your Hands | 5 | Andrea Leek | 55kg |
In absence of form data, Kings Valley tops assessment via elite trainer C Maher, leading jockey Thomas Stockdale (27% at Bairnsdale), and perfect barrier 1 draw in 1600m mile where barriers fairer. Light weight and stable quality outweigh lack of history per maiden/insufficient form rule.
Taka Speed earns second via strong proxy signals: barrier 3 ideal for Bairnsdale's tight turns, Teodore Nugent 100% on horse previously and 19% with trainer Laurie. Lacks form but not penalised; suits moderate-fast tempo from midfield per speed map.
Not top pick as connections inferior to Maher/Stockdale combo; value in place.
Trainer quality and track bias favouring closers/backmarkers mitigate wide draw 11.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Kings Valley | 1 | Thomas Stockdale | C Maher | 55.5kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 1 | Pounding | 4 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 61kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Zouatica | 6 | Koby Jennings | B Joseph & P & M Jones | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Angry Skies | 2 | Liam Riordan | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 54kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Taka Speed | 3 | Teodore Nugent | M M Laurie | 54kg | $4.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Inexorable | 7 | Jett Stanley | G M Begg | 54kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Presser | 11 | Jye McNeil | Gavin Bedggood | 55.5kg | $7.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Chartres | 9 | Patrick Moloney | M M Laurie | 54kg | $19.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Highlights | 5 | Rhys Mc Leod | Nick Ryan | 60kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Bullets High | 10 | Ryan Houston | K T Bourke | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Starspangled Baby | 8 | Aaron Sweeney | Andrew Perdon | 54kg |
Trained by in-form Hayes team with Koby Jennings (10% track strike). Barrier 5 allows midfield settling in race favoring closers per bias data. Solid proxy evaluation via trainer/jockey strength positions as clear second pick despite absent form history.
Barrier 1 and 56kg weight perfect for Bairnsdale 1600m where position matters. Lacks strong connections but map/weight combo suits moderate-fast tempo and neutral barrier bias. Viable top-3 as roughie threat in low-reliability country BM62.
Barrier 3 ideal for handy position in moderate-fast tempo race where backmarkers have shown advantage. Superior connections outweigh lack of public form data per maiden/insufficient form rule. Best pure form proxy despite data limitations.
Barrier 8 tests but closers advantaged per track bias.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Cryptic Clue | 6 | Jett Stanley | Matthew Brown | 58.5kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 5 | Foggy Bottom | 2 | Sheridan Clarke | Ms J Crosbie | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Grand Sage | 1 | Valentin Le Boeuf | R C Manning | 56kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 6 | Aria Electra | 8 | Teodore Nugent | Ms S Trolove | 54.5kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Ugly Nicos | 9 | Sally Wynne | Ms A Bence | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Box Vale | 7 | Bree Temple | Kerry Farrugia | 50kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Druthers | 5 | Koby Jennings | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $2.70 |
| 8th | 7 | Ripplebrook | 10 | Liam Riordan | Ms S Trolove | 54.5kg | $20.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Bold Strike | 3 | Thomas Stockdale | C Maher | 60kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Mrs Gossip | 4 | Ruby Lamont | K E Horobin | 50kg |
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