Donald tips and results

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.60 · Damien Thornton

Lovedup Lola debuts for the Freedman stable with a plum inside barrier on a heavy track where early position is critical. The 55kg lightweight and inform jockey Damien Thornton (25% recent wins) are major positives. Her trial was encouraging and the stable has a strong debut record. The main risk is inexperience, but the conditions mitigate that.

Our price $5.00 · SP $1.90 · Jett Stanley

The inside barrier is ideal for the tight Donald track and he should get every chance from the front. However, the step to heavy conditions is a significant unknown.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Brad Rawiller

Premium Return is an interesting value runner. His debut at Caulfield Heath in a metro maiden was only fair, but the drop to country class is a positive. Brad Rawiller takes the reins and from barrier 3 he should get a good run.

Our price $2.50 · SP $2.70 · Tom Madden

Zetheros is the clear top pick based on two close seconds on heavy tracks, drawing the inside barrier, and consistent form. He is the one to beat and should finally break through in this maiden.

Our price $20.00 · SP $31.00 · Melissa Julius

Popeye is a consistent improver with a 3rd and 4th in his last two starts.

Our price $5.00 · SP $10.00 · Neil Farley

Freshwater Fox is a rapidly progressing filly who relished the heavy ground when second at Hamilton (Heavy 10) over 1600m. She draws beautifully in barrier 3 with only 57.5kg and should be able to settle handy. The step up to 2200m is a query but her dam side suggests stamina. Neil Farley's positive recent form adds confidence.

Our price $20.00 · SP $15.00 · Will Gordon

Stepping up to 2200m should suit her breeding (sire Shocking) and she draws the inside gate with a light weight. A small speculative stake is recommended.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.50 · Damien Thornton

Thurmond boasts the strongest heavy track credentials in the field with two wins on heavy surfaces, including a win over this 2200m trip on Heavy 8. He placed third last start on soft at Geelong, indicating current form. The wide barrier is a concern on Donald's tight track, but his ability to sustain a run on heavy ground can overcome that. He is the most likely winner.

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.50 · Billy Egan

Jenny The Beaver has the best recent heavy form of any runner, finishing 3rd in a BM70 on Heavy 8 and 2nd in a BM66 on Heavy 9. She drops significantly in class to BM62 and carries only 57.5kg. The major concern is barrier 14, which is very wide on Donald's compact circuit.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.80 · Sam Kennedy

His recent form on good tracks is misleading; he will appreciate the sting out. If he gets the right run, he can upset.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.00 · Tom Madden

The Kill Club is a well-credentialled heavy track mare who looks ideally placed. She won on Heavy 8 at Warrnambool two runs back, jumps from barrier 2 which is a prime draw at Donald, and carries a manageable 57kg. The only slight concern is jockey Tom Madden's dry spell, but her form and suitability to conditions are clearly superior. She can win this.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.00 · Sam Kennedy

Zetalyn represents genuine each-way value in this race. The queries are the heavy track (she has never raced on it) and the slight class rise. However, she gets a light weight, a good draw, and a jockey in red-hot form. Worth a small investment each-way.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Tom Madden

Lisa Lass is the value runner of the race. She has a tremendous record on heavy tracks, with three placings from four starts, including a third in a BM70 at Warrnambool on Heavy 10 – the best heavy-track performance in this field. The barrier 17 is a major concern, but if Tom Madden can slot her in midfield with cover, her finishing kick on heavy is formidable. The class rise is offset by her BM70 placing, and if she gets any luck from the wide draw she can feature.