Warrnambool tips and results

Our price $6.00 · SP $2.25 · Will Gordon

Gripping represents strong each-way value based on exceptional heavy track consistency and recent form proximity. The recent Warrnambool trial win confirms fitness, and barrier 3 is ideal for the heavy ground bias favoring inside runners. However, like Captain Electric, he faces the jumps debut challenge with no experience (0:0-0-0).

Our price $2.20 · SP $1.90 · Steven Pateman

Zinovation is the standout selection having won at this exact track and distance on Heavy 10 just 14 days ago. The 4YO gelding's perfect heavy track record (1:1-0-0) and proven 3200m stamina make him ideally suited.

Our price $100.00 · SP $26.00 · Martin Kelly

Cherokee Brave is included purely as a roughie value option in a weak small field, not on any genuine winning credentials. His 0% jumps win/place rate and failure to finish last jumps start at Terang are major red flags. However, the 69kg weight is a significant advantage in a 3200m stamina test on Heavy 8, and jockey Martin Kelly's strong recent form (20% strike rate) provides some hope. Realistically, he needs the top three to falter badly, but stranger things have happened in jumps racing.

Our price $2.80 · SP $4.20 · Dean Parker

The barrier 2 draw is ideal for securing an economical forward position, and the 65kg weight matches the lightest in the race. The main concern is the jockey change from his winning partnerships, with Dean Parker taking over despite no prior combination history. However, Parker is a capable jumps rider (17% strike rate at Warrnambool) and the horse's class and heavy track ability should overcome this. The Maher stable is renowned for jumpers, and this progressive type is still lightly raced over hurdles (4 starts: 2-0-2).

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.40 · Steven Pateman

Mr Waterville has proven credentials at this track and distance, winning the Novice Hurdle here on May 7 by 7 lengths on Heavy 10, and he also placed in the Maiden Hurdle two days earlier. His heavy track record (33% win rate, 50% place rate) is solid, and his jumps ability is proven (67% win rate over hurdles). However, the last start 8th placing at Flemington in Open company is a significant concern, even allowing for the class rise. The quick 8-day backup suggests connections are trying to capitalize on his Warrnambool affinity before form deteriorates. Carrying top weight of 69kg is a disadvantage, giving away 4kg to the main dangers. While the class drop back to standard Hurdle level is positive, the combination of last start failure, weight disadvantage, and less favorable barrier makes him vulnerable.

Our price $6.67 · SP $11.00 · Steven Pateman

The Mighty Spar is a consistent stayer who frequently hits the board at Warrnambool, especially on heavy ground. While he hasn't won over this trip, his recent second indicates he is close. The top weight is a negative, but he should be in the finish again.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Steven Pateman

Zikron offers value as a first-up runner with a perfect fresh record and the crucial barrier 2 draw. While lightly raced with only three starts, his narrow second at Terang on a wet track demonstrates ability in testing conditions. The 65-day spell should have him primed for a forward showing, and the inside barrier is gold on this Heavy 8 surface.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · David Fisher

Smiling Assassin is a proven Heavy track specialist with a perfect 2:2-0-0 record at this exact course and distance, including a win on Heavy 10 in October 2025. The 9YO gelding has excellent heavy credentials (14:4-3-1) and proven stamina. Barrier 7 allows him to settle forward which is crucial on this track. The 72kg is a concern but he's won carrying 72.5kg here before.

Our price $10.00 · SP $8.50 · Luca Remondet

Smokin' Rohie ran a solid 3rd last start at Warrnambool on Heavy 10 in the same race as our top pick Smiling Assassin. The gelding has proven form at this track (3:1-0-2) and handles heavy conditions (4:0-1-1). The jockey/trainer combination has a 100% place rate from 4 rides. Main concern is barrier 14 which is a significant disadvantage on heavy ground at Warrnambool. Will need to overcome the wide draw but has shown ability to place at this venue in these conditions.