Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Northern Territory · Monday 3 August 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 10 races at Darwin. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Lucky Fortuna's outstanding record at Fannie Bay (5 wins, 16 starts) combined with an ideal barrier 2 draw makes this a leading contender. Lack of a recent win is the only query against otherwise rock-solid credentials for this track and grade.
Recent form is trending positively with a placing last start, and the course record is strong.
Verbosity's ideal barrier 1 draw combined with a dominant last-start win at this same track/distance makes it the form-and-map standout. The quick back-up is a positive sign of readiness, and Fannie Bay's data shows inside gates win nearly 50% more often than wide draws.
Convincebility offers value dropping from Open grade into this Restricted 70 race, where it has previous course-and-class success.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Rivkin | 6 | Paul Shiers | Peter Stennett | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Convincebility | 4 | Raymond Vigar | Ms T Halter | 60.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Lucky Fortuna | 2 | Kayla Crowther | Kym Healy | 55kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 6 | Time To Baca | 5 | Wayne Davis | Philip Cole | 56.5kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 2 | Bon's Your Back | 7 | Hannah Le Blanc | Tommy Logan | 60kg | $3.10 |
| 6th | 4 | Starzam | 3 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 7th | 7 | The Final Word | 8 | Jade Hampson | D Leech | 56kg | $9.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Verbosity | 1 | Stan Tsaikos | Ms K Petrick | 59.5kg |
Texture is the most reliable, in-form runner in the race, having won its last two starts including last-up at Fannie Bay in this exact grade over a similar trip. Quick back-up suggests fitness peaking. Barrier 6 is workable given the strong inside-gate bias at this track. This is the standout in a moderate, winnable Restricted 58.
Pafitis brings genuine improving form and a smart barrier draw into this class rise. The Todd/Clarke combination is in career-best touch, and the horse's recent win plus consistent minor placings suggest it is ready to be competitive at this level. The class rise from Maiden company is a query, but the tactical positives (barrier, forward tempo suitability) offset this.
Included on raw form strength but with real risk attached to the wide gate.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Texture | 6 | D Leech | 62kg | $2.15 | |
| 2nd | 12 | Field Of Praise | 13 | Hannah Le Blanc | Philip Cole | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Yaki Ishi | 3 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 3 | Frawley | 7 | Wayne Davis | Philip Cole | 61kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 13 | Si Senora | 2 | Richard Bensley | Tommy Logan | 58.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 14 | Miami Baby | 12 | Chloe Baxter | 58.5kg | $13.00 | |
| 7th | 1 | Southampton Flare | 15 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 62kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Funnyifitwon | 1 | Raymond Vigar | Ms T Halter | 60.5kg | $14.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Bit Tired Actually | 14 | Jessica Booth | Philip Cole | 58.5kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 5 | In No Doubt | 8 | D Leech | 60kg | $41.00 | |
| 11th | 6 | Pafitis | 4 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 60kg | $19.00 |
| 12th | 2 | Anecdotal | 9 | Jade Doyle | Philip Cole | 61kg | $6.50 |
| Scr | 8 | Bryce | 10 | Philip Cole | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Ocean's Jen | 11 | Aaron Sweeney | Andrew Perdon | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Debating | 5 | Ella Clarke | 58.5kg |
Littlebourkestreet arrives in career-best form, having won and placed in her last two starts at this exact track and distance.
Down The Wicket is the model Fannie Bay type - drawn perfectly in gate 2, in career-best current form, and fresh off a narrow defeat in this same grade at the same track/distance. Consistency is the calling card, but he needs to turn minor placings into a win against similar rivals.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Cavern | 1 | Jade Hampson | D Leech | 58.5kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 5 | Littlebourkestreet | 9 | Deborah Barton | Paul Shiers | 58.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 3 | Down The Wicket | 2 | Raymond Vigar | K J Lamprecht | 59.5kg | $3.70 |
| 4th | 7 | Juice Box | 8 | Hannah Le Blanc | Tommy Logan | 58kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Jumping Power Two | 7 | Richard Bensley | Tommy Logan | 61kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 10 | Miss Boom | 10 | Ianish Luximon | Kym Healy | 54kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Miami Vice | 3 | Wayne Davis | Philip Cole | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Cap Ten | 6 | Jade Doyle | Kym Healy | 58kg | $17.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Patriotic King | 4 | Jessica Booth | G Clarke | 60.5kg | $18.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Dad Bod | 5 | Ms K Petrick | 57.5kg |
Zourata presents the strongest form case in the race - a course specialist who won his last start at this exact track and trip, with consistent recent form and a proven jockey combination.
Rewards And More draws perfectly into gate 1, the most powerful lever at this circuit, and arrives with genuine recent form including a placing at this trip/track last start. A capable second string with strong claims to feature.
Balastier arrives in career-best form, having won 2 of his last 3 starts including a recent Fannie Bay victory. He represents the most complete formline in the race, even against tougher Cup-day opposition.
He has been building nicely with a placing last start and looks well suited to another forward showing from a workable gate. A leading contender on home turf credentials.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Arizona Activist | 10 | Chloe Baxter | 56kg | $5.00 | |
| 2nd | 7 | Rewards And More | 1 | Stan Tsaikos | Ms K Petrick | 55.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 5 | Rising Sphere | 8 | Zac Spain | G Clarke | 56kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Zourata | 7 | Dakota-Lee Gillett | Peter Robl | 60kg | $3.30 |
| 5th | 8 | Flying Annie | 3 | Aaron Sweeney | G Clarke | 54kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Shirshov | 6 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 54kg | $2.90 |
| 7th | 10 | Zing To Win | 9 | Chris Pollard | 54kg | $41.00 | |
| Scr | 1 | Dakota Lee | 2 | Terry Gillett | 65kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Balastier | 4 | Chloe Baxter | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Wild Beau | 5 | Ella Clarke | 56kg |
Biden Time is the clear form standout, having won its most recent start at this same track and distance carrying similar weight, and now drops in class further.
The ideal inside barrier plays perfectly into Fannie Bay's dominant draw bias, and the drop in grade should suit a horse racing consistently without winning of late.
Barocco Bar has genuine course form with a win and multiple minor placings at this track/distance, and drops back into a suitable grade. The main query is barrier 14, which is a real disadvantage at this circuit, but the underlying form is strong enough to remain competitive for a placing.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | The Accelator | 10 | Jade Hampson | Ms K Petrick | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Grinzinger Tundra | 4 | Stan Tsaikos | Ms K Petrick | 59kg | $15.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Merimbula | 12 | Aaron Sweeney | G Clarke | 61kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Biden Time | 6 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 62kg | $1.95 |
| 5th | 12 | Anphina | 5 | Paul Shiers | Ms K Petrick | 57kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Kieffer | 8 | K J Lamprecht | 58.5kg | $14.00 | |
| 7th | 5 | Faberge Tzar | 2 | Joe Bowditch | Andrew Perdon | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Barocco Bar | 14 | Lek Maloney | Patrick Johnston | 60.5kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Aggressive | 7 | Robbie Dolan | Ms K Petrick | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Able Seaman | 1 | Wayne Davis | Philip Cole | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Data Scramble | 15 | Hannah Le Blanc | Rhonda Cole | 58.5kg | $61.00 |
| 12th | 3 | Rampazetto | 13 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 61kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Your Not The Boss | 3 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Sass | 9 | Chloe Baxter | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | No I'm Not | 11 | Chris Pollard | 55.5kg |
Ichiban offers the strongest pure form profile for this Open 1600m. Excellent draw negates map concerns on a barrier-sensitive track, while distance record and recent placings/win at the trip confirm suitability. Competitive in Open company last start and drops back ideally from 2050m. Class exposure superior to progressive lower-grade winners.
Stormfront brings the most reliable class and course-distance credentials. Multiple T/D wins and high strike rate mark him as a genuine Open contender capable of leading in a moderate tempo. Last-start effort was plain but prior Rest76 win and track form stack up strongly.
However pure form assessment downgrades him for the sharp class jump into Open company on the biggest day. Strong each-way/place claims remain via map and fitness.
Awash is a clear overlay. Barrier is manageable and weight fine; genuine each-way value in an Open where distance specialists are rewarded.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 13 | Hettinger | 14 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 12 | Rossanado | 12 | Paul Shiers | Paul Shiers | 55.5kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 7 | Crown Waters | 6 | Richard Bensley | Tommy Logan | 58.5kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Ichiban | 3 | Jason Lyon | G Clarke | 58.5kg | $4.20 |
| 5th | 5 | The Girl's Boy | 7 | Lek Maloney | Ms K Petrick | 59kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Alpine Flyer | 13 | Kym Healy | 58.5kg | $81.00 | |
| 7th | 10 | Awash | 9 | Aaron Sweeney | G Clarke | 57kg | $16.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Stormfront | 10 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 9th | 14 | Wine Barron | 15 | Joe Bowditch | Michael Hickmott | 55kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Zondee | 8 | Jade Doyle | Andrew Perdon | 60.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 9 | Hamlet Von Snitzel | 1 | Chris Pollard | 57.5kg | $61.00 | |
| 12th | 15 | Princess Pancakes | 2 | Ms K Petrick | 54kg | $51.00 | |
| Scr | 1 | Cotehele | 11 | Joe Bowditch | Michael Hickmott | 61kg | |
| Scr | 2 | Great Buy | 4 | Dakota-Lee Gillett | Terry Gillett | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Fury | 5 | Zac Spain | G Clarke | 56.5kg |
She rates the most likely winner on current form and suitability.
Auxiliary arrives in strong touch, having won last start at this track and performed well up in tougher grade beforehand. The drop back to BM62 is a clear positive, and the horse's recent trend line is highly consistent.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Montjuic Magic | 3 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 57.5kg | $3.20 |
| 2nd | 7 | Tellez | 4 | Ms K Petrick | 58.5kg | $5.50 | |
| 3rd | 3 | Hebel | 6 | Dakota-Lee Gillett | Terry Gillett | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Auxiliary | 2 | Lek Maloney | Ms K Petrick | 61kg | $3.20 |
| 5th | 2 | Magarten | 1 | Ms K Petrick | 59.5kg | $9.00 | |
| 6th | 8 | Itwasonlyakiss | 5 | Jarrod Todd | Jason Manning | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Tipsy Toronado | 9 | Paul Shiers | Paul Shiers | 54kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Throw At Da Stumps | 7 | Ms K Petrick | 58kg | $31.00 | |
| 9th | 6 | Matron Samsing | 8 | Stan Tsaikos | Ms K Petrick | 56.5kg | $71.00 |
Stomp'em has strung together the strongest recent form in the field, winning twice at Fannie Bay in this exact Restricted 62 grade over the past month, including a dominant win last start. Barrier 8 is workable on a track where inside-to-middle draws are favoured. With course and distance proven ability and a positive jockey combination, this is the most reliable form-based selection in an open, tougher-than-usual Darwin Cup day field.
Cavendish arrives in career-best form having won last start in this same grade at Fannie Bay, with an excellent overall strike rate. The major concern is barrier 15 - a genuine negative at a track where data shows wide gates are heavily penalised (9-12 wins ~10%, 13+ effectively ignored). Class and current form may offset the draw somewhat, but it adds real risk versus the better-drawn in-form runners above.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | If I Was You | 5 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 59kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 3 | Brazen Bon | 4 | Vanessa Arnott | Jason Manning | 61kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Stomp'em | 8 | Jade Doyle | Kym Healy | 62kg | $4.20 |
| 4th | 12 | Lavender Glory | 10 | Hannah Le Blanc | Rhonda Cole | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| 5th | 10 | I Loverain | 1 | Paul Shiers | Paul Shiers | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Limited Risk | 7 | Jessica Booth | Kym Healy | 60.5kg | $9.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Rhesus | 12 | Joe Bowditch | Philip Cole | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Kessler | 6 | Wayne Davis | Philip Cole | 60.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Hammurabi | 3 | Raymond Vigar | Ms T Halter | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Crazy Brave | 14 | Deborah Barton | Paul Shiers | 60.5kg | $41.00 |
| 11th | 1 | Cavendish | 15 | Jade Hampson | D Leech | 62.5kg | $6.50 |
| 12th | 7 | Pirate | 11 | Kayla Crowther | Chris Nash | 60kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Dolce D'amour | 2 | Ms K Petrick | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Our Squamosa | 9 | Ms K Petrick | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Ariarne | 13 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 54kg |
Standout form horse after narrow 2nd in Open grade over this exact trip. Ideal barrier 3 exploits Fannie Bay inside bias on a slow-tempo map.
Progressive 4yo who has placed in Open company at the trip and followed with a strong 2nd.
Class rise is a query and the slight ease is a caution, but current form, draw and connections keep him firmly in the top three winning chances.
Huge last-start effort when 2nd in Open grade over 2050m makes him a genuine threat dropping into Restricted 70.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Maldini | 12 | Paul Shiers | G Clarke | 61kg | $21.00 |
| 2nd | 7 | Hotim English | 2 | Aaron Sweeney | Ella Clarke | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Unquestionably | 3 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Bollon | 5 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 58kg | $3.30 |
| 5th | 5 | Grinzinger Bishop | 9 | Jade Hampson | Kym Healy | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Iknowhatyouredoing | 10 | Jessica Booth | K J Lamprecht | 54kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Vanguard Legend | 15 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 60.5kg | $13.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Villa Seventynine | 11 | Robbie Dolan | G Clarke | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Crazy Town | 7 | Richard Bensley | Chris Nash | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 10th | 6 | King Akeed | 14 | Zac Spain | Tommy Logan | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Garrix | 8 | Joe Bowditch | Michael Hickmott | 56kg | $6.50 |
| 12th | 8 | Tennessee Whiskey | 13 | Stan Tsaikos | Peter Robl | 57.5kg | $11.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Girls Girls Girls | 4 | Ms K Petrick | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Love To Lie | 6 | Kym Healy | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Danger Man | 1 | Chris Pollard | 54kg |
Leveraged Buyout arrives with the strongest recent form in the race - back-to-back wins at Fannie Bay including this exact 2050m trip just three weeks ago. Despite a moderate class rise for Cup day and a workmanlike barrier, the pattern of dominant, improving performances against similar-class rivals makes this the most likely winner on form.
The wide barrier is a concern given Fannie Bay's strong inside bias, but current fitness and in-form claims make this a leading threat to the top pick.
Rematch has been racing well at Fannie Bay, winning last start and placing consistently. The rise in class for Cup day and a wide draw are considerations, but the horse's reliability and current fitness make it a solid each-way threat.
Strong course form and an improving trend, combined with a top rider who knows the horse well, make this a value play against the more fancied runners.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Watadeel | 6 | Zac Spain | Michael Hickmott | 54kg | $17.00 |
| 2nd | 11 | Rematch | 11 | Robbie Dolan | Chris Nash | 54kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Hadouken | 3 | Paul Shiers | Peter Robl | 55kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Komachi | 8 | Kayla Crowther | Will Clarken & Charlotte Sorby | 54kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 12 | Maxxi Bon | 12 | Richard Bensley | Chris Nash | 54kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Magic Defense | 4 | Stan Tsaikos | Ms K Petrick | 54kg | $19.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Stormageddon | 2 | Joe Bowditch | Michael Hickmott | 55.5kg | $4.40 |
| 8th | 10 | Wolfburn | 10 | Jarrod Todd | G Clarke | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Jimi Hendrix | 7 | Raymond Vigar | Michael Hickmott | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Leveraged Buyout | 9 | Jade Hampson | D Leech | 54kg | $5.50 |
| 11th | 1 | Casino Seventeen | 1 | Jason Lyon | Chloe Baxter | 63.5kg | $11.00 |
| 12th | 5 | Venting | 5 | Aaron Sweeney | Ms K Petrick | 54kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Vega Magnifico | 13 | Billy Cray | N J Dyer | 54kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Zondee | 14 | Jade Doyle | Andrew Perdon | 54kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Alpine Flyer | 15 | Kym Healy | 54kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.