Moe tips and results

Our price $1.85 · SP $2.25 · Jett Stanley

Barrier 4 and a forward map fit Moe's position-based profile perfectly. The only real query is Heavy 10 with 59.5kg, given no prior heavy start, but the soft-track record of two seconds and a third from five suggests wet ground is no barrier.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.00 · Brad Rawiller

The step to 2050m suits and barrier 5 permits a handy run.

Our price $12.00 · SP $11.00 · Liana Wood

The value proposition.

Our price $6.50 · SP $18.00 · Luke Currie

The most proven wet-track runner in the race. She was a fit fourth over the trip at Bairnsdale 10 days ago and Currie returns for a stable striking at 15% with him. Barrier 10 is the main obstacle in a slow-tempo affair.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.00 · Jason Maskiell

Deep maiden form with a record at the distance of 2 starts for 2 placings and a heavy-track record of 1 start for 1 placing, that second coming over this exact trip at Bairnsdale. Against him is 13 starts without a win, top weight of 59.5kg in a bog, and barrier 9 forcing a compromised early move. Place claims only.

Our price $7.00 · SP $12.00 · Luke Currie

His single heavy-track run produced a third and barrier 6 with 57.0kg suits Moe's momentum-based wet profile.

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.50 · Jason Maskiell

He returns to the exact venue, trip and surface where he produced that run, from barrier 5 with the same rider.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.50 · Logan Bates

The problem is barrier 13 on a Heavy 10 at Moe, where wide draws demand exceptional early speed to overcome and outside gates have produced no winners or placings in the recent local sample. That is enough to keep it third rather than a top-two contender, but the class of the connections means it cannot be dismissed.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Joe Bowditch

Second up he should be fitter and the drop to 1000m suits. Each-way is the sensible structure.

Our price $4.80 · SP $5.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

He handles heavy ground without ever winning on it. He is the obvious placegetter but needs luck to convert.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.50 · Jackie Beriman

Just Dance is the overlay. He drops from Bench.

Our price $4.20 · SP $2.50 · Brad Rawiller

Dropping from Bench. She has 2 wins from 9 Heavy starts and a strong distance record. What stops her from being top pick is the 4-from-31 win strike, barrier 11, 61.5kg, and a track record of 0 from 3 at Moe. Ranked second on that combination.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.50 · Luke Currie

A rock-solid each-way profile with the best barrier of the main chances. Setheus won his maiden on Heavy 8 and was beaten under a length on Heavy 9 at Cranbourne, so the going is no issue. The drop from Bench. 62 to BM56 and gate 4 give him the map to hold a forward position, which is exactly the Moe wet-track profile. The step to 1600m is unproven and he is a chronic minor placegetter, so the each-way angle is the right way in rather than straight out.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.90 · Hayley Spitse

The most credentialed runner on raw form. His Moe Heavy 9 second in Bench. He has two placings from three Moe starts at the trip, so the surface and circuit hold no fears. The obvious risk is conversion - three wins from 31 starts and none in ten runs - but the class relief plus first-time bubble cheeker gives him the best platform he has had to finally break through.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Nadia Daniels

The improver of the race. She placed at Moe over this trip on Heavy 10 in May, then filled placings in two more heavy maidens before winning at 1200m on Soft 7 at Murtoa. That is a horse whose form curve is pointing straight up and whose conditions are exactly today's.

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.00 · Dylan Dean

The purest wet-tracker in the race on strike rate - a win on Heavy 8 at Geelong and a second at Moe over this exact trip on Heavy 9 from only two heavy starts. Barrier 5 and a forward map fit the Moe momentum pattern, and the Freedman stable removing blinkers while dropping her from Bench.

Our price $8.00 · SP $15.00 · Ruby Lamont

The overlay of the race. Barrier 6 gives her a forward, momentum-based map that Moe wet tracks reward.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.50 · Jason Maskiell

The best Moe specialist in the race, with a win and a placing from four attempts at track and distance including a maiden win here on Heavy 9. Last start he was beaten only a length in Bench. 62 at Moe on Heavy 9 with 56kg.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.00 · Nadia Daniels

Barrier 11 on a Heavy 10 at Moe compounds the concern.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Carleen Hefel

A genuine overlay. Carleen Hefel, who partnered both her recent wins, returns.