Mornington tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $16.00 · C Newitt

The most exposed and reliable of the younger brigade. The 1500m looks a positive on his Wangaratta effort, where he ran home hard after dwelling. Genuine winning threat at each-way value.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Jackson Radley

The one runner here with a proven wet-track placing, having led and been run down late on a Soft 7 at Geelong. He maps forward from barrier 8, which is the profile Mornington on Soft rewards, and he is the fittest horse in the race off four runs this preparation. The risk is a very fast projected tempo with three genuine leaders, which may leave him exposed, and he flattened out badly on the synthetic last start.

Our price $3.00 · SP $1.65 · B Melham

Flying Artie stock are precocious and 1000m suits. The reason it is not top-ranked is barrier 16: Mornington on Soft demands forward-to-midfield position, wide gates drew a blank in the sample, and a debutant has no proven gate speed to overcome it.

Our price $7.00 · SP $11.00 · Ethan Brown

The most talented unexposed runner in the race. Ethan Brown's 26% Mornington strike is the sharpest booking here and the very fast tempo projected off three genuine leaders sets up for a closer. Against him: barrier 17, 175 days between runs, 59.5kg and a track that punishes backmarkers.

Our price $7.50 · SP $26.00 · Lauren Burke

Mornington on Soft still rewards forward position - settling 1-3 wins about 18% while backmarkers win 5% - and she is one of only three horses with proven gate speed.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.20 · L Nolen

The most credentialled horse in the race by a clear margin. With three genuine leaders likely to burn a very fast 1000m on a drying Soft 5, his profile - fast to begin but settling around fifth - is exactly the just-off-the-speed shape Mornington Soft rewards.

Our price $6.00 · SP $16.00 · Damien Thornton

He handles first-up assignments and the drop in grade is significant. The reservations are the fast tempo he must contend with alongside two other leaders, and a plain soft-track run when he over-raced at 1200m. Each-way is the sensible play.

Our price $2.90 · SP $2.40 · Olivia East

The most credible winner on raw ability. Barrier 4 and an on-pace profile line up perfectly with Mornington's sprint bias toward handy runners from inside gates. Soft ground is unproven (2 starts, no wins) and the jockey booking is modest, but the class and fitness edge outweighs that.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.50 · Jye McNeil

The negatives are real: 61.5kg topweight, gate seven and a map that has her settling midfield on a track that heavily favours handy runners.

Our price $7.00 · SP $20.00 · M J Dee

Still winless at the trip and rising in grade, which caps her at third rank.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · J Mott

The most complete form profile in the race. Omamori is proven at the trip (5 starts for a win, a second and two thirds) and proven on rain-affected ground, and his winter form against BM66/BM74 stayers reads well above this grade. The Seymour flop is stewards-excused and he returns freshened. Critically he maps to settle third from barrier four, exactly the profile Mornington rewards on Soft, where leaders win a third of races and backmarkers are near-hopeless.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.50 · Lachlan Neindorf

Six starts for a win, a second and two thirds, she closed well for third on Soft 6 at Sale a fortnight ago and won her maiden on Heavy 8, so the going holds no fears. She maps midfield with tactical speed, which the Soft Mornington data now rewards more than on Good. The unknown is 2030m off a Deep Field pedigree - enough doubt to take her at place level rather than win.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Ms J Beriman

The overlay of the race. At 58kg with an on-pace map from barrier nine, she is precisely the profile the Mornington Soft bias rewards.

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.70 · Jabez Johnstone

The most reliable form line in the race. The Mornington Soft profile rewards exactly this runner: handy, in-form, distance-suited, placed last start. Two placings from two attempts at 1500m. Top weight of 61kg and a 0-for-10 soft-track win column are the only real reservations; his positional edge outweighs both.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Jamie Melham

Won her only 1500m start. With Melham up and a fast tempo to run into from midfield, she is the main danger. Wide gate and a habit of racing keenly keep her second rather than first.

Our price $8.50 · SP $12.00 · Carleen Hefel

Our price $4.20 · SP $8.50 · Ben Allen

He returns first-up off a record of one win and one second from two fresh runs, and drops slightly in grade after being beaten a length when wide throughout in Restricted 66 company. Placed in all three soft-track starts. The 62kg and gate 11 are genuine risks, but his consistent handy settling pattern fits the Mornington-on-Soft winning profile better than any rival.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · Sam Kennedy

He is the only runner in the field who has won at Mornington over 1200m, and he added a Soft 5 win over the trip at Bairnsdale two starts back before being held up at the 400m when fifth on the Ballarat synthetic. Two wins from five at 1200m and a light 56.5kg after the claim give him a workable profile at BM62 level. The predicted midfield-to-back settling spot is the main risk, which is why he is an each-way rather than a win play.