Hawkesbury tips and results

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Reece Jones

Ran the strongest closing race of any runner last start, charging from well back to be beaten about three lengths over this exact track and trip. He is proven here and at the distance and is improving each run. Against him: eight starts without a win, no placings on soft going, a low-percentage stable, and a habit of settling off the pace on a circuit that rewards leaders.

Our price $7.00 · SP $21.00 · Chad Schofield

A front-runner who maps to lead, which suits a Hawkesbury circuit that heavily favours horses on the pace. Second-up and fitter after a useful Goulburn run, he drops into a very winnable maiden.

Our price $3.10 · SP $2.20 · Zac Lloyd

Alpha Zeta brings the strongest piece of relevant form into this maiden — a half-length third over this exact trip at Hawkesbury on soft ground, where she settled handy and hit the line hard. She has the natural speed to take up a forward position in a race lacking a true leader, and Zac Lloyd, the in-form rider at this track, is booked. Her Rosehill run was plain but she overraced. Lightly raced and clearly open to improvement.

Our price $3.60 · SP $4.60 · Regan Bayliss

She has the speed to lead or sit outside the leader, but this is her first try at 1100m and the Scone failure is a genuine query, so she is preferred for the placings.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · Andrew Calder

She ran well beyond her finishing position last start, sticking on over 1850m at Newcastle in a race run to a strong standard. She maps to settle handily and that is the place to be at Hawkesbury over this trip. Visors go on first time, and the step to a staying journey looks the making of her.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00 · Jess Taylor

He is second-up from a break and drawn kindly in gate four to settle within striking distance.

Our price $3.20 · SP $1.50 · Ashley Morgan

Switch On is the class runner of the field and her last-start win was easily the strongest performance on the page. She has the best stable and jockey numbers in the race. The problem is the map: she gets back in the run, and at Hawkesbury on a soft surface backmarkers barely win, while leaders and on-pace types dominate. A place is the safer play.

Our price $5.50 · SP $11.00 · Reece Jones

Ribble Lace is the value among the main chances. She races on the speed, has led at her past few starts, and has already run second here on soft ground and close seconds over the mile. That map suits a track where on-pace runners dominate on rain-affected ground.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.50 · Chad Schofield

Third, beaten a neck, in the same strong maiden at this track and trip, and she did it after being held up in the straight. Gets 4.5kg from the topweight and finishes off strongly. The knock is her habit of settling well back on a track that strongly favours horses on the speed, plus a wideish gate, but she is a genuine each-way hope.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Jay Ford

A lightly-raced four-year-old with a strong record on rain-affected ground, his two career wins both coming on wet tracks. He has run to a high standard in all three starts and beat a handy field at Newcastle two runs back. The concern is his get-back pattern in a race where forward positions clearly hold the edge.

Our price $10.00 · SP $26.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

The likely lone leader in a slowly-run race, and this track strongly favours horses on the speed. He has won and placed here before and a first-time tongue tie may help after he pulled up making an abnormal respiratory noise last start. If he gets an easy lead he could steal it, though he is unproven at 1100m.

Our price $7.50 · SP $7.50 · Chad Schofield

The value play. Her trainer has a strong strike rate at this track and the jockey knows her well.