Mornington tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · Beau Mertens

A debutant with a winning jump-out on the course last start, and a stable and jockey who do well together at Mornington. Barrier 4 should see him settle handy.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.80 · Billy Egan

The problem is the map: he settles near the rear at a track where that is a major disadvantage, and he carries top weight.

Our price $3.00 · SP $3.30 · Thomas Stockdale

The class runner of the field and the one to beat. He ran a strong second over 2400m at Moe, settling mid-field and closing well, and was far from disgraced in a hot staying maiden at Ballarat last time. New visors and a cheeker should have him handier.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.00 · Logan McNeil

The likely leader from a good gate on a track where front-runners dominate, which is a big plus. He's been consistent, placing at his last two over around 2000m. The question is the extra trip - his best form is short of 2450m - and a stable that hasn't had a recent winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.50 · Daniel Stackhouse

He's placed over this trip here. The knock is that he settles back and needs luck on a leader-biased track, but his quality makes him a genuine place chance.

Our price $5.00 · SP $14.00 · Luke Nolen

The one to beat. She maps to settle second or third from a nice middle gate, exactly where this Mornington sprint is won, and she brings the strongest recent form in the race — a fighting second at Pakenham over 1100m and a sound first-up run behind the leader. Second-up now she should be sharper, the stable is going well and is only saddling her today.

Our price $4.20 · SP $7.50 · Luke Cartwright

He has the speed to lead uncontested and the Mornington bias favours that. The concern is the step up to 1500m, since he tired when leading at 1400m last start. The blinkers could help him hold on.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.80 · Jabez Johnstone

A lightly raced colt from a top stable that was solid on debut. He gets a good draw and a light weight, and a step up to 1500m should help.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.50 · Daniel Stackhouse

A consistent 3yo who ran second at Kilmore and has the early speed to sit handy in a race without much pace. The gear changes may sharpen him. The trainer's poor Mornington record is a concern.

Our price $2.90 · SP $3.40 · Thomas Stockdale

Brutify has the best and most consistent form in this field. She has run close to a winning standard in every recent start at BM56 and has placed in four of her last five. She has the most early speed in the race, and no other runner has a strong leading record, so she should find the front despite barrier 15. Leaders and stalkers win far more often than backmarkers at Mornington, which suits her.

Our price $7.50 · SP $15.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

On the map, Egerton Reef has the best run of the outsiders. From barrier 3 he should sit behind or just off Brutify, the position that wins most races at Mornington. He has also run well over 1500m.

Our price $2.40 · SP $2.15 · Daniel Stackhouse

She's the clear form pick. She won a 2yo Open Handicap over this track and distance on debut, leading all the way and winning easily, and it was a run that would win this race. Her trial and jump-out on Good tracks suggest she's ready, and the jockey–trainer pairing has been strong.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.20 · Jackson Radley

She should settle handy from a good draw, in a race with no obvious front-runner. Winkers add a mild plus.

Our price $6.00 · SP $13.00 · Chelsea Thompson

Diamanda won last start leading at Cranbourne and now gets a big weight drop and a claimer. She has a good record on firm ground and should be on-pace, the position that wins most at Mornington. She is aged and her last two Mornington runs over further were poor, but this is a drop in distance and class.

Our price $7.00 · SP $3.90 · Daniel Stackhouse

Russian Benefits has won twice at Mornington over this trip and draws well. Her last start at Moe was unlucky when she was held up for a clear run, and she drops in class today. She does not have a leader's speed and carries 60kg, so she needs some luck in running.