Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Thursday 17 July 2025
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Kembla Grange. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Her consistent form and proven ability on Good tracks make her a strong contender. The filly's failure to win so far is a concern, but the easier company today gives her an excellent chance to break through.
While yet to win, her consistency at this class level and suitability for the distance make her a strong contender. The recent form decline is a slight concern but she should be competitive.
While yet to win, the gelding has been consistent at this class level and has potential for improvement third-up.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Commanding Belle | 5 | Brock Ryan | R & L Price | 55kg | $1.85 |
| 2nd | 5 | Aura | 8 | Grant Buckley | M, W & J Hawkes | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Zoustrong | 3 | K S Latham | R & L Price | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Rule Of Faith | 1 | Jay Ford | Stephen O''Halloran | 55kg | $81.00 |
| 5th | 2 | More Cash | 6 | Holly Durnan | Mitchell Beer | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Spiritualistic | 7 | Rory Hutchings | Mitchell Beer | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 8 | So Precise | 4 | O A Dalton | Ms A Turner | 52kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Hurry Miss | 2 | Reece Jones | Peter Snowden | 59kg |
While yet to break through for a win, the gelding has been consistently placing against similar opposition. The likely fast tempo should suit his midfield running style, and he appears well-placed to break through for a maiden victory.
Valentiago is showing an improving form line and comes off a strong second-place finish. The gelding gets in well at the weights and should be suited by the likely fast tempo.
While yet to place in a race, she has been running consistently and should be suited by the likely fast tempo.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Mama Joy | 2 | K S Latham | John O''Shea & Tom Charlton | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Valentiago | 6 | William Stanley | Peter Snowden | 54.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 8 | Zeljko | 5 | Ms L Day | C Maher | 57kg | $3.80 |
| 4th | 1 | Autumn Heir | 4 | Brock Ryan | R & L Price | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Wa Wa Wa | 9 | Rory Hutchings | C J Waller | 59kg | $2.60 |
| 6th | 7 | Second Deb | 8 | Jessica Taylor | J A Steinmetz | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Tod | 3 | Jean Van Overmeire | Mitchell Beer | 59kg | $13.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Castel Nuovo | 7 | Richard Litt | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Sleuth | 1 | Benjamin Osmond | C E Conners | 57.5kg |
I Am Gone looks well-placed to make a winning debut. Likely to lead or be prominent from a good draw, carries a light weight, and represents a stable in form.
Fierceness brings valuable race experience and showed promise last start. Well-weighted and likely to settle midfield, the colt has room for improvement.
Proven at the distance and with a strong finishing ability, the filly could be dangerous if the pace is genuine. The wide barrier is a concern but may be mitigated by her running style.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 14 | Sea Admiral | 9 | John Thompson | 57kg | $5.50 | |
| 2nd | 9 | Mashean | 3 | Reece Jones | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 3rd | 11 | Fierceness | 8 | Jay Ford | Matthew Smith | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Charka | 13 | Brock Ryan | James Cummings | 55kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 8 | I Am Gone | 14 | Regan Bayliss | Michael Freedman | 55kg | $1.70 |
| 6th | 15 | Kiss Goodnight | 11 | C E Conners | 55kg | $26.00 | |
| 7th | 10 | Palazzo Dama | 2 | Jeff Penza | Fabio Martino | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Zousari | 16 | H Van Der Hoven | J C Coyle | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Charlecote Mill | 15 | Grant Buckley | James Cummings | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Excuseme Mrofficer | 12 | Jean Van Overmeire | Ross McConville | 57kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Melanite | 4 | John Thompson | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Precise Star | 7 | Rory Hutchings | C J Waller | 57kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Fairway To Heaven | 6 | Michael Freedman | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Blinked | 10 | K S Latham | John O''Shea & Tom Charlton | 55kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Usain Boss | 1 | Tom Sherry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 57kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Over The Limit | 5 | Ms A Turner | 57kg |
Welcome Gypsy presents as the top selection with improving form and a significant weight advantage. The mare's consistency and second-up record further bolster her winning chances.
While facing a significant class rise, her potential for improvement and suitability for the expected race tempo make her an intriguing value proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Mr Rock It | 7 | Holly Durnan | R & L Price | 58kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 7 | Xanadu Miss | 4 | Brock Ryan | T J Robinson | 56kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Bode Akuna | 1 | H Van Der Hoven | J C Coyle | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Welcome Gypsy | 6 | William Stanley | John Thompson | 57.5kg | $2.00 |
| 5th | 8 | King Charles | 3 | Ms L Day | Anthony Mountney | 55kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Vinolass | 2 | Rebecca Bronett Prag | K Dryden & L Snowden | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Oceans One | 8 | Jay Ford | Edward O''Rourke | 59kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Impact Zone | 5 | Tom Sherry | Peter Snowden | 57kg |
The significant class drop from last start should see this gelding very competitive. While yet to win, the overall profile suggests a breakthrough is imminent.
Denial shows improving form and consistent place finishes. The gear change (blinkers off, winkers on) could spark further improvement.
The favorable barrier draw and proven ability at the distance are positives. While yet to win and stepping up in class, the overall profile suggests a strong chance to place.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Denial | 9 | Holly Durnan | Mitchell Beer | 56kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Firework | 3 | K S Latham | Sara Ryan | 59.5kg | $1.65 |
| 3rd | 7 | All Saints | 6 | Brock Ryan | R & L Price | 56.5kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Initiate | 4 | Grant Buckley | Brad Widdup | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Miss Peony | 8 | Molly Bourke | P & M Cave | 55.5kg | $61.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Tendi | 2 | Jean Van Overmeire | J A Steinmetz | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Mr Antares | 12 | Rory Hutchings | J M Austin | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Edorado | 10 | Jessica Taylor | Ms T Bateup | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Anne | 7 | Jeff Penza | Lee & Cherie Curtis | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Smart Cry | 5 | Tom Sherry | J C Coyle | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Bon Elton | 11 | O A Dalton | G M Brown | 52kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Zoustrong | 1 | R & L Price | 58kg |
Despite carrying top weight, the class drop and overall form suggest a strong winning chance.
Dumebi is a strong second pick, coming off good recent form and well-weighted for this race. The advantageous barrier draw and suitability to Good track conditions are positives. While rising in class is a concern, the overall profile suggests a competitive showing.
Your Not The Boss rounds out the top selections with improving form and a recent win. The light weight is advantageous, and the horse has a competitive record at the distance.
The inside barrier is advantageous, and there's potential for improvement. However, recent form and track condition concerns temper expectations.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Zaragoza | 8 | K S Latham | R & L Price | 60kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | C''mon Mate | 9 | Ms C Keatings | Ross McConville | 58kg | $16.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Donwon | 10 | Brock Ryan | Ross McConville | 59kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 3 | The Extreme Cat | 5 | Benjamin Osmond | Nathan Doyle | 59kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Your Not The Boss | 6 | Regan Bayliss | Mitchell Beer | 55.5kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 7 | All Machiavellian | 4 | Tom Sherry | R & L Price | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Dumebi | 2 | Holly Durnan | Mitchell Beer | 57.5kg | $4.80 |
| 8th | 9 | Mah Ali | 7 | Adrian Layt | K J Parker | 56.5kg | $15.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Irish Bliss | 3 | Jay Ford | K J Parker | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Cani Cancan | 1 | Jean Van Overmeire | Paul Murray | 57kg | $51.00 |
The significant class rise suggests trainer confidence, while the removal of blinkers could sharpen his focus. His lightweight and good barrier draw further enhance his chances in this race.
Autumn Dream shows consistent form and the addition of blinkers for the first time could provide the edge needed at this level.
Grey Secret has shown strong recent form and the addition of blinkers could provide further improvement.
Dropping in class and with consistent form, he has proven ability at both the distance and track. The good barrier draw is advantageous, though the top weight is a concern.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Autumn Dream | 9 | Tom Sherry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 58.5kg | $3.60 |
| 2nd | 5 | Dalio | 8 | Deanne Panya | R S Englebrecht | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Super Sugoi | 1 | O A Dalton | Matthew Smith | 53kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Devils Daughter | 11 | A J Calder | P & M Cave | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Lucky Bay | 4 | Holly Durnan | R & L Price | 52kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Casablanca Express | 3 | Regan Bayliss | David Payne | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Sacro Catino | 10 | K S Latham | David Payne | 60.5kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Leaders Listen | 12 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 9th | 6 | Jamarni | 7 | Brock Ryan | R & L Price | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Grey Secret | 6 | Jean Van Overmeire | Mitchell Beer | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 11th | 11 | Flash Piper | 2 | Olivia Chambers | John Morrison | 53kg | $201.00 |
| 12th | 12 | Rockathon | 5 | Molly Bourke | Ms L Morrison | 53.5kg | $201.00 |
The colt's tactical speed should see him lead or sit prominently, which is advantageous at Kembla Grange. Despite the class rise, the weight advantage and strong recent performances make him a compelling choice.
Dimitrov brings strong credentials with consistent form and a significant class drop. His proven ability at the distance and likely on-pace position are positives. The top weight is a concern, but the class relief and strong jockey booking offset this. The long break is the main query, but stable fitness is typically reliable.
The significant weight relief and inside barrier draw are major positives. While facing a class rise and unproven at the distance, her potential for further improvement makes her an intriguing value proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Superhero | 9 | Rory Hutchings | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 3 | Cross Tasman | 5 | K S Latham | John O''Shea & Tom Charlton | 59.5kg | $1.70 |
| 3rd | 1 | Dimitrov | 3 | Benjamin Osmond | John O''Shea & Tom Charlton | 60.5kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Forbidden Riff | 11 | Jay Ford | Richard & Will Freedman | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 12 | Isla Negra | 12 | Grant Buckley | M, W & J Hawkes | 55kg | $51.00 |
| 6th | 16 | Sir Sublime | 4 | Ms T Bateup | 55kg | $101.00 | |
| 7th | 9 | Gwendie | 2 | Brock Ryan | Ross McConville | 56.5kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 10 | La Bella Bondi | 6 | Adrian Layt | K J Parker | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 14 | Lightly Sparkled | 1 | Holly Durnan | Mitchell Beer | 52kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Girls Weekend | 7 | Jean Van Overmeire | Mitchell Beer | 55kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 2 | City Gold Banner | 14 | Tom Sherry | G Ryan & S Alexiou | 61kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Prince Harrison | 15 | M C Conners | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Hippolyte Rock | 13 | Jeff Penza | C J Waller | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Vinniro | 16 | Peter Snowden | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Cheeky Dancer | 8 | William Stanley | C Maher | 55kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Via Varallo | 10 | Ms A Turner | 55kg |
Before the races, not after
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