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Victoria · Friday 3 October 2025

Warrnambool tips and results

Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Warrnambool. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.

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Top pick won2/825%
Any tip won4/850%
Top pick placed3/838%
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R1

TAB We''re On Hwt Mdn Plate

14:00 local2000mMaiden$320,001,176,002,576,040,000,000,000,000
Winner6. The Smash FactorSP $1.60
★ Top pickWon
6The Smash Factor

Our price $1.80 · SP $1.60 · Arron Lynch

The Smash Factor brings the strongest recent form with three consecutive third placings. His record at Warrnambool is excellent with 4 thirds from 5 starts, and he's proven on heavy going. The addition of winkers for the first time could be the catalyst for improvement, and his tactical versatility allows him to adapt to the likely moderate tempo. Clearly the one to beat.

2nd pick3rd
4Nicoffhome

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · Tom Ryan

Nicoffhome comes into this with excellent recent form, having finished second in his last two starts. He's well drawn in barrier 2 which should give him every chance on a heavy track, and his record at this track and distance is solid. While he's yet to break through for a win, his consistency suggests he'll be right in the finish again.

3rd pick7th
8High Heeled

Our price $7.00 · SP $13.00 · Jordan Hart

High Heeled returns from a spell with some consistent form before the break. She's placed at this distance previously and drops significantly in class for this assignment. While first-up stats aren't encouraging and she lacks experience on heavy tracks, the lightweight and decent barrier draw give her claims. Likely to be running on strongly late.

Value pick6th
3Dunleer Lad

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.50 · P Hamblin

While he's yet to place officially, his recent form suggests he's knocking on the door.

  1. 1st6The Smash FactorArron Lynch$1.60
  2. 2nd1Bernie BeelLuca Remondet$17.00
  3. 3rd4NicoffhomeTom Ryan$5.50
  4. 4th5Royal Beau$15.00
Full result · 7 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st6The Smash Factor8Arron LynchTom Dabernig69.5kg$1.60
2nd1Bernie Beel5Luca RemondetAllan Peterson69.5kg$17.00
3rd4Nicoffhome2Tom RyanChris Calthorpe69.5kg$5.50
4th5Royal Beau6Jack Laing69.5kg$15.00
5th9Miss Narranga1Portia MatthewsShae Norton67.5kg$31.00
6th3Dunleer Lad4P HamblinAmy Small69.5kg$6.50
7th8High Heeled7Jordan HartJoanne Mugavin67.5kg$13.00
Scr2Cimerion Cove9Jordan RatcliffeP Koumis69.5kg
Scr7Tilzattack3Martin KellyW Morrissey69.5kg
R2

Lady Bay Resort Hwt (Bm56)

14:30 local2350mBenchmark 56$22,000,112,100,237,404,000,000,000,000
Winner3. Smiling AssassinSP $3.20
★ Top pick6th
8Cosmos Factory

Our price $2.80 · SP $3.60 · Tom Ryan

Cosmos Factory brings the strongest recent form into this race, finishing 2nd last start over a similar distance. The 7-day backup suggests peak fitness, and his running style should be well-suited to the heavy track conditions.

2nd pickWon
3Smiling Assassin

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.20 · Arron Lynch

Smiling Assassin drops significantly in class after racing in much stronger company. Previous winner at this track and distance which is a significant advantage. The wide barrier is the main concern, but class should prevail.

3rd pickScratched
1Idon''tgetit

Our price $6.50 · Luca Remondet

Idon''tgetit brings strong heavy track credentials (3-3-2 from 13 starts) and consistent recent form including a win two starts back. The inside barrier is advantageous on a heavy track, and he's proven capable of carrying weight. Main concerns are the top weight and being unproven at this distance, but his tactical versatility should allow him to position well in running.

Value pick2nd
7Northern Barrage

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.00 · W Gordon

Northern Barrage represents excellent value dropping significantly in class from metropolitan racing. His consistent form in higher grade suggests he should be competitive here, and the first-time tongue tie could spark improvement.

  1. 1st3Smiling AssassinArron Lynch$3.20
  2. 2nd7Northern BarrageW Gordon$10.00
  3. 3rd10Tosen GloryCillin Leonard$17.00
  4. 4th5Andy WinJordan Hart$5.00
Full result · 8 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st3Smiling Assassin10Arron LynchGarret Lynch72.5kg$3.20
2nd7Northern Barrage9W GordonHenry Dwyer69.5kg$10.00
3rd10Tosen Glory8Cillin LeonardK T Bourke67kg$17.00
4th5Andy Win5Jordan HartShane Jackson69.5kg$5.00
5th11Sabre Athena4P HamblinM W Greig65kg$8.00
6th8Cosmos Factory2Tom RyanShane Jackson68.5kg$3.60
7th2Rapid Impact7Portia MatthewsSimon Ryan72.5kg$26.00
8th4Unplanned Revolt3Gary WalshShane Jackson72.5kg$9.00
Scr1Idon''tgetit1Luca RemondetP A Chow74.5kg
Scr6Cherokee Brave6Martin KellyE V Musgrove69.5kg
Scr9Staying Strong11Nathan NewtonNathan Newton68kg
R3

Star Printing Mdn Plate

15:00 local1400mMaiden$320,001,176,002,576,040,000,000,000,000
Winner11. DanzsinSP $1.80
★ Top pickWon
11Danzsin

Our price $2.20 · SP $1.80 · Linda Meech

Danzsin brings the strongest recent form with a 3rd placing last start on soft going at Warrnambool. The booking of Linda Meech is significant, and the Tom Dabernig stable is in good form. Clearly the one to beat.

2nd pick2nd
8Lisa Lass

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.90 · Tom Madden

Lisa Lass brings excellent heavy track credentials with 2 seconds from 2 starts on heavy going. Her recent 4th at this track indicates she's ready to peak third-up, and both her placings have come at this distance. Tom Madden retains the ride, and she should handle these conditions perfectly. Main danger to the favorite.

3rd pickScratched
9Shaykhlislamova

Our price $15.00 · Melissa Julius

She has experience at this track and has shown ability at this distance with a second placing.

Value pick6th
15So Long Ago

Our price $18.00 · SP $26.00 · E J Walsh

She's shown recent improvement with 4th and 5th placings and has the race fitness from 7 runs this preparation.

  1. 1st11DanzsinLinda Meech$1.80
  2. 2nd8Lisa LassTom Madden$3.90
  3. 3rd7HoneyjoyNeil Farley$51.00
  4. 4th13Proisecco RoseCarleen Hefel$21.00
Full result · 11 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st11Danzsin7Linda MeechTom Dabernig57kg$1.80
2nd8Lisa Lass10Tom MaddenAaron Purcell57.5kg$3.90
3rd7Honeyjoy14Neil FarleyAaron Purcell57.5kg$51.00
4th13Proisecco Rose8Carleen HefelC Maher55kg$21.00
5th12Harmony11Dean YendallL Smith55kg$4.80
6th15So Long Ago9E J WalshP A Banks57.5kg$26.00
7th14Star Of Omaha3Teodore NugentAndrew Angelone55kg$21.00
8th2Jonii Diamond2J WebbJamie Edwards59.5kg$101.00
9th3Mount Toubkal5Campbell RawillerD J Cannon59.5kg$151.00
10th1He''s Invading1P HamblinD J Cannon59.5kg$101.00
11th5Trewhella Jack4Christine PulsGregory Daffey59.5kg$61.00
Scr4Prince Of Florence15Rhys Mc LeodMs D Clover59.5kg
Scr6Abby''s Crossword6Fred W KersleyD J Cannon57.5kg
Scr9Shaykhlislamova12Melissa JuliusMaddie Raymond & Patrick Bell57.5kg
Scr10Alla Rustica13John AllenT Busuttin & N Young57kg
R4

Nevcon Structural Steel Mdn Plate

15:30 local1200mMaiden$320,001,176,002,576,040,000,000,000,000
Winner1. Regal SurgeSP $21.00
★ Top pick7th
3Gina''s A Star

Our price $2.80 · SP $3.40 · Ryan Hurdle

Gina's A Star brings the strongest recent form into this race with a close 2nd last start at Seymour over this distance. The likely fast tempo should suit her running style, and she appears to be improving with each run. Well-placed to break through for a maiden win.

2nd pick3rd
13Queen Christine

Our price $3.60 · SP $1.90 · Teodore Nugent

The step up to 1200m should suit based on her finishing effort, and she gets in with just 55kg. Second-up runners often improve significantly, and trainer Symon Wilde is adept at preparing horses for provincial maidens. The fast tempo should allow her to settle and finish strongly.

3rd pick6th
4Parchment

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.00 · Dylan Dunn

Parchment brings valuable heavy track experience with a 2nd placing on heavy going. The advantageous barrier 5 draw should allow her to settle in a good position, and the addition of winkers for the first time could sharpen her up.

Value pick2nd
10Shades Of Stardom

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.50 · Neil Farley

Shades Of Stardom represents value coming back from a spell with a significant class drop from Open company to a Maiden. First-up runners can often surprise, especially when dropping in class.

  1. 1st1Regal SurgeE J Walsh$21.00
  2. 2nd10Shades Of StardomNeil Farley$7.50
  3. 3rd13Queen ChristineTeodore Nugent$1.90
  4. 4th2Wee JimmyCampbell Rawiller$101.00
Full result · 8 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st1Regal Surge6E J WalshC Maher59.5kg$21.00
2nd10Shades Of Stardom13Neil FarleyM J Williams57kg$7.50
3rd13Queen Christine8Teodore NugentSymon Wilde55kg$1.90
4th2Wee Jimmy11Campbell RawillerP R Gray59.5kg$101.00
5th5Pinkerton4Linda MeechTom Dabernig57.5kg$13.00
6th4Parchment5Dylan DunnL Smith57.5kg$12.00
7th3Gina''s A Star7Ryan HurdleMitchell Freedman57.5kg$3.40
8th6Shadow Storm9Caitlin HollowoodMitchell Leek54.5kg$26.00
Scr7Tuxedo Miss3Fred W KersleyArchie Alexander57.5kg
Scr8Fierce Fiasco1Carleen HefelAndrew Forsman57kg
Scr9Prince Iadora2John AllenTom Dabernig57kg
Scr11Star Compass10Tom MaddenAaron Purcell57kg
Scr12Lantana12Dean YendallM J Williams55kg
R5

Langley''s Port Fairy & Warrnambool Accommodation Mdn Plate

16:00 local1000mMaiden$320,001,176,002,576,040,000,000,000,000
Winner8. Golden VaderSP $8.50
★ Top pick7th
2Hollow Turf

Our price $3.80 · SP $5.00 · Jack Hill

Has placed on heavy going previously and draws perfectly in barrier 5 for his forward racing style. Second-up form shows a placing and the Jack Hill/J Rowe combination is effective. The heavy track will suit his racing pattern and he appears ready to break through.

2nd pick3rd
3Sirleaf

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.20 · Dean Yendall

Sirleaf showed promise when 4th first-up and should improve second-up today. The Mitchell Freedman stable is in good form and the booking of Dean Yendall is significant. Still, the natural improvement second-up makes him a genuine contender.

3rd pickScratched
4The Defender

Our price $4.20 · Linda Meech

The Defender is the most consistent runner in the field with 5 third placings from 10 starts. Second-up today with a good record when having had a run under his belt. Barrier 1 could be advantageous if the inside holds up on the heavy track.

Value pick2nd
9Mathletes

Our price $12.00 · SP $10.00 · Samantha Noble

Finished 3rd last start and has a good record at this distance range. The barrier draw suits her racing pattern and the trainer/jockey combination knows the horse well. The likely fast tempo should play to her strengths as a midfield runner who can finish off.

  1. 1st8Golden VaderDylan Dunn$8.50
  2. 2nd9MathletesSamantha Noble$10.00
  3. 3rd3SirleafDean Yendall$4.20
  4. 4th11Soviet StrikeFred W Kersley$2.80
Full result · 9 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st8Golden Vader8Dylan DunnJ T Conlan57.5kg$8.50
2nd9Mathletes6Samantha NobleS G Noble57.5kg$10.00
3rd3Sirleaf12Dean YendallMitchell Freedman59.5kg$4.20
4th11Soviet Strike10Fred W KersleyL Smith57kg$2.80
5th1Brazen Martini11Melea CastleMs R Waymouth59.5kg$18.00
6th7Ellyette4Jarrod FryPaul McKenna57.5kg$8.50
7th2Hollow Turf5Jack HillJ Rowe59.5kg$5.00
8th5Bon To Dance3J WebbPaul McKenna57.5kg$61.00
9th6Dunwithcash7Valentin Le BoeufA M Burns57.5kg$151.00
Scr4The Defender1Linda MeechMark & Levi Kavanagh59.5kg
Scr10Big Vee2John AllenTom Dabernig57kg
Scr12Piklemegranmother9Tom MaddenMs B O''Loughlin55kg
R6

Pearson''s Nursery (Bm56)

16:30 local1000mBenchmark 56$22,000,112,100,237,404,000,000,000,000
Winner6. Sub GaugeSP $5.50
★ Top pick2nd
2Mr Tickles

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.60 · Caitlin Hollowood

Mr Tickles brings strong recent form with a 2nd place finish 10 days ago at Moe. His consistency is impressive with 11 placings from 37 starts, and he's dropping in class from a BM62 to this BM56. While he lacks experience at Warrnambool, his adaptability to different track conditions and versatile racing style should serve him well in this contest with likely fast tempo.

2nd pick8th
9Exciting Times

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Neil Farley

Exciting Times brings excellent recent form with consecutive placings at Warrnambool, including a 2nd place finish just 11 days ago. Her track and distance record is impressive with 2 placings from 2 attempts. The inside barrier draw is advantageous, and she gets in with a light weight of 56kg. While she's rising in class, her improving form suggests she's ready to be competitive.

3rd pick4th
7Brash Lass

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · Dean Yendall

Brash Lass is a lightly raced 3yo filly with significant upside. She comes off a maiden win in heavy conditions followed by a solid 4th at this track 11 days ago. Her perfect heavy track record (1 from 1) is a major positive for today's conditions. While she faces a significant class rise from maiden grade to BM56, her youth and improvement curve suggest she can be competitive.

Value pickWon
6Sub Gauge

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · John Allen

Sub Gauge represents excellent value coming off a strong 2nd place finish when resuming 19 days ago. The booking of quality jockey John Allen is significant, and he draws perfectly in barrier 5. While he lacks experience at Warrnambool and on heavy tracks, he's dropping in class and has shown ability second-up previously.

  1. 1st6Sub GaugeJohn Allen$5.50
  2. 2nd2Mr TicklesCaitlin Hollowood$3.60
  3. 3rd1A Good YarnTom Madden$6.00
  4. 4th7Brash LassDean Yendall$6.00
Full result · 8 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st6Sub Gauge5John AllenDavid & Coral Feek60kg$5.50
2nd2Mr Tickles9Caitlin HollowoodMitchell Leek58.5kg$3.60
3rd1A Good Yarn3Tom MaddenM J McKenzie62kg$6.00
4th7Brash Lass6Dean YendallShane Nichols & Hayden Black58.5kg$6.00
5th10Flying D''amore4Samantha NobleS G Noble54kg$41.00
6th8The Mariner10E J WalshStephen Lenehan58kg$17.00
7th4Super Snitch1Teodore NugentP W McKenna60.5kg$9.00
8th9Exciting Times2Neil FarleyMs D Loos56kg$4.60
Scr3Miss Top Gun7Rose HammondTom Dabernig57.5kg
Scr5Lavandula8Thomas Sadler60kg
R7

Northpoint Liquor/Bottle-O (Bm56)

17:00 local1300mBenchmark 56$22,000,112,100,237,404,000,000,000,000
Winner15. Lord PorchesterSP $17.00
★ Top pick7th
5Sacred Fort

Our price $3.20 · SP $5.00 · Carleen Hefel

The significant class drop is a major advantage, and his heavy track record suggests today's conditions will suit perfectly. His last start 2nd at Hamilton over 1400m indicates he's in good form, and the addition of a tongue tie could help him find the extra length needed to win.

2nd pick6th
9Symphonite

Our price $3.50 · SP $2.35 · Linda Meech

Symphonite is a progressive mare who has shown excellent ability on rain-affected tracks. Her last start 2nd at Warrnambool in heavy conditions over this distance demonstrates her suitability for today's race. While she's rising in class, her upward trajectory and Linda Meech in the saddle give her strong claims. The good barrier draw should allow her to settle in a favorable position.

3rd pick8th
11Simply Sassy

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · Neil Farley

Her last-start maiden win at Hamilton was impressive, and she appears to be hitting form at the right time. While she's stepping up in class, her progressive profile suggests she can be competitive. The good barrier and retention of Neil Farley are additional positives.

Value pick3rd
3Thunderanlightning

Our price $12.00 · SP $11.00 · Luke Williams

His heavy track record is outstanding with 3 wins from 9 starts, and he's a proven performer at Warrnambool with 2 wins from 13 starts including a win at this track and distance.

  1. 1st15Lord PorchesterSarah Field$17.00
  2. 2nd17Darra Linen$13.00
  3. 3rd3ThunderanlightningLuke Williams$11.00
  4. 4th13Bell''s BighouseJack Hill$15.00
Full result · 10 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st15Lord Porchester10Sarah FieldW Morrissey55.5kg$17.00
2nd17Darra Linen16K T Bourke54kg$13.00
3rd3Thunderanlightning14Luke WilliamsK M Elford61.5kg$11.00
4th13Bell''s Bighouse11Jack HillJ Rowe58.5kg$15.00
5th8Dougal Mckeen7John AllenDavid & Coral Feek60kg$17.00
6th9Symphonite5Linda MeechTom Dabernig60kg$2.35
7th5Sacred Fort3Carleen HefelC Maher61kg$5.00
8th11Simply Sassy8Neil FarleyM J Williams59kg$7.00
9th14Squander6Tom MaddenAaron Purcell57.5kg$18.00
10th6Stan Tough9Melissa JuliusJames McNamara61kg$26.00
Scr1The Maggstar15Caitlin HollowoodTetyana Furdetska62kg
Scr2Masked Marauder1Rose HammondTom Dabernig61kg
Scr4Rhodesian Red4Fred W KersleyMark & Levi Kavanagh61kg
Scr7Tears Are Flowing17Ryan HurdleSymon Wilde61kg
Scr10Bellalique2Teodore NugentP A Preusker59.5kg
Scr12Artpark12Dean YendallP A Preusker58.5kg
Scr16Rippa Buddy13D J Cannon58kg
R8

Matko Hire Bm56 Handicap

17:30 local1700mBenchmark 56$22,000,112,100,237,404,000,000,000,000
Winner6. Side PieceSP $3.80
★ Top pick6th
14Vegas On Fire

Our price $5.50 · SP $11.00 · Jade Da Rose

Vegas On Fire brings strong consistent form with three consecutive placings including two runner-up finishes. The mare drops in class after competing well in stronger BM62/64 races. Her heavy track record (1-2-4 from 13 starts) suggests she'll handle today's conditions, and she's proven adaptable to different racing patterns. The 10-day backup is ideal, and she appears well-placed to break through for a win.

2nd pick8th
10Coastal Whispers

Our price $8.00 · SP $10.00 · Rose Hammond

Coastal Whispers brings winning form to this race after scoring impressively at this track on heavy ground last start. The progressive mare has shown consistent improvement with each run, culminating in a win and a close second in her last two starts. The lightweight of 57kg is another positive.

3rd pick9th
16Mummsie

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.00

Mummsie comes into this second-up after a solid fourth placing at Warrnambool 11 days ago. She has shown ability on heavy tracks with a placing from her only attempt. The mare drops in class from her last start and has been a consistent placegetter throughout her career.

Value pick2nd
15Bookman

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Jack Hill

Bookman represents excellent value given his recent form, with consecutive placings including a narrow second at Donald. The significant class drop from metropolitan and provincial races is a major positive, and while barrier 13 is a concern, his racing pattern should allow him to overcome this.

  1. 1st6Side PieceTom Madden$3.80
  2. 2nd15BookmanJack Hill$13.00
  3. 3rd1ExabanoiseJarrod Fry$14.00
  4. 4th13Elsie GirlSarah Field$14.00
Full result · 14 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st6Side Piece12Tom MaddenAaron Purcell61kg$3.80
2nd15Bookman13Jack HillD M Noonan60kg$13.00
3rd1Exabanoise5Jarrod FryChris Calthorpe62.5kg$14.00
4th13Elsie Girl7Sarah FieldMs B O''Loughlin56kg$14.00
5th5Hard To Go Wrong18John AllenHenry Dwyer61kg$11.00
6th14Vegas On Fire1Jade Da RoseShawn Mathrick58.5kg$11.00
7th4More Torque6Rhys Mc LeodCharlotte Littlefield61.5kg$10.00
8th10Coastal Whispers8Rose HammondTom Dabernig57kg$10.00
9th16Mummsie14Andrew Bobbin57.5kg$6.00
10th17Dibalta15Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell59kg$31.00
11th8Moscow Red4Neil FarleyHenry Dwyer60.5kg$11.00
12th18Mash And Gravy10D J Cannon57kg$71.00
13th9Switch Hit9Valentin Le BoeufMitchell Freedman60.5kg$31.00
14th2Blazing Guru3Ryan HurdleSymon Wilde62kg$21.00
Scr3Royal Inference16Dylan DunnP A Chow62kg
Scr7Edzel11Archie Alexander60.5kg
Scr11Jamrock2Garret Lynch60kg
Scr12Cool Star17Carleen HefelTetyana Furdetska59kg

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