Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 30 January 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 8 races at Cranbourne. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Lisa Lass brings the most consistent form to this race with 4 seconds from 5 starts. Her recent runner-up finish at this track just 7 days ago was solid, and she typically improves second-up. The moderate tempo should suit her racing pattern, and she draws perfectly in barrier 4 with Tom Madden retaining the ride. Ready to break through.
Vieux Riche showed promise on debut with a solid 3rd placing at Pakenham over 1400m. The daughter of Puissance De Lune should appreciate the step up to 1500m and draws ideally in barrier 3. Shane Foley (20% strike rate at this track) takes the ride, and natural improvement is expected second-up. Main danger to the top selection.
He has performed well at this track with 2 seconds from 3 starts and should get a good run from barrier 6. The step up to 1500m looks suitable based on his recent efforts, but he's yet to break through despite multiple chances.
Vallo showed promise on debut when 4th at Pakenham over 1400m and should improve significantly second-up. The inside barrier is a significant advantage at Cranbourne, and the booking of Jamie Mott (who has a strong 17% strike rate with this trainer) is a positive.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Lisa Lass | 4 | Tom Madden | Aaron Purcell | 57.5kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 5 | Costa Paros | 9 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Vallo | 1 | Jamie Mott | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Animal | 6 | Luke Cartwright | Ms N Burke | 57.5kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 6 | Stormy Romance | 8 | Jake Noonan | G Eurell | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 2 | City Wok | 2 | Logan McNeil | R J Blacker | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Vieux Riche | 3 | Shane Foley | Shane Jackson | 57.5kg | $3.20 |
| 8th | 4 | Rockin' Dee Fox | 10 | Sheridan Clarke | Jim Cerchi Jnr | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 3 | I Am Titan | 5 | Thomas Stockdale | T G Eurell | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Fiery Reign | 7 | Dylan Dunn | Melanie Bullard | 57.5kg |
Frosted Miss showed significant ability when finishing a close second on debut at Yarra Glen over 1000m. The step up to 1200m looks ideal for this well-bred Frosted filly, and she draws perfectly in barrier 4. Fred Kersley is riding at a 25% strike rate from his last 20 rides, and the filly should get an ideal run in midfield with options to make her move. The Good track suits based on her debut performance.
Ironic Fortune made an encouraging debut when finishing second at Seymour over 1000m. The Capitalist gelding draws ideally in barrier 2 and should take up a forward position. Mitchell Aitken stays aboard after riding him on debut, and the combination should get every chance from the good draw. The step up to 1200m looks suitable based on his finishing effort last start, and he's proven on Good tracks.
Xuxa Kiss should improve significantly second-up after a midfield finish on debut at Sandown. The booking of Michael Dee is a major positive, with the jockey boasting a 29% strike rate at Cranbourne. From barrier 3, she should get an economical run, and being by Extreme Choice suggests the 1200m will suit. The stable has given her three weeks between runs to build fitness, and natural improvement is expected.
Pol Rogeur represents value as an unraced runner from the David & Coral Feek stable, who typically place their horses well in provincial maidens. Jake Noonan is riding in excellent form with a 15% strike rate from his last 20 rides, and the combination has produced winners at 13%. From barrier 5, the horse should get a good run in a race with moderate-fast tempo.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Fly By Light | 8 | Ben Melham | C W McDonald | 58kg | $2.10 |
| 2nd | 10 | Xuxa Kiss | 3 | Michael Dee | C I Brown | 56kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Opulent Oscar | 6 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Pol Rogeur | 5 | Jake Noonan | David & Coral Feek | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Frosted Miss | 4 | Fred W Kersley | Chris Calthorpe | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Ironic Fortune | 2 | Mitchell Aitken | S V Brown | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 7th | 3 | Full Of Knowledge | 1 | Jye McNeil | Dani Walker | 58kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Beast Fighter | 9 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | |
| Scr | 7 | The Dux Nuts | 7 | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Alien Angel | 10 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg |
Exit brings the strongest form credentials, dropping significantly from Group 2 company where she was competitive. The inside draw suits at Cranbourne, and while she carries top weight, the compressed weight scale minimizes this disadvantage.
Her open company form is strong, and she's proven on good tracks. The long spell is a concern, but her first-up statistics suggest she can fire fresh. The middle barrier is workable in this field size.
Artie's Storm brings race fitness and improving form, winning last start at Yarra Glen. While facing a significant class rise from maiden grade, her upward trajectory and ideal barrier draw (4) position her well for this assignment. The 16-day spacing between runs is ideal, and she should be able to secure a good position from her draw.
Her recent maiden win at Stawell followed a solid 4th at Cranbourne, showing she's hitting form at the right time.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Toronado Queen | 7 | Logan Bates | G Eurell | 58.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 1 | Exit | 1 | Luke Cartwright | C Maher | 59kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Celibate | 6 | Patrick Moloney | M J Williams | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Grammy's Sunshine | 2 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Artie's Storm | 4 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Gliding Lightening | 8 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Sheanadh | 3 | Michael Dee | M W Walker | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 8 | Big Star | 5 | Lachlan King | Ben Brisbourne | 58.5kg |
His last-start win at Sandown over 1800m was impressive, and he's on an upward trajectory with a strong win strike rate of 18%. The step up to 2060m looks ideal based on his racing pattern, and he maps to settle midfield with options from barrier 5. Jake Noonan maintains the ride after their last-start success.
Thinking Gold comes into this second-up after a strong win at Seymour over 1600m. His second-up record is excellent with 2 wins from 3 attempts, and he's proven at similar distances with a placing over 2050m. Luke Nolen maintains the ride after their last-start success, and the gelding has shown consistent form with 2 wins and 3 placings from 12 starts. The step up in distance looks suitable based on his racing pattern.
Convo brings solid recent form with a last-start second at Seymour over this distance. The mare is well-weighted with just 55kg and gets the services of Michael Dee who boasts an impressive 29% strike rate at Cranbourne. The Maher stable is in good form, and she appears to be an improving type who can handle the step up in class.
The gelding has an impressive place strike rate of 57% with 3 placings from 7 starts and gets the services of in-form jockey Jordan Childs who's riding at a 30% strike rate. The Mitchell Freedman-trained runner is still lightly raced but showing progressive staying ability.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Powerful Torque | 5 | Jake Noonan | David & Coral Feek | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Mozu Marcassin | 1 | Eoin Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 58.5kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Convo | 9 | Michael Dee | C Maher | 55kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Warchime | 6 | Dylan Dunn | Brett Scott | 61kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Aristonous | 2 | Luke Cartwright | Trent Edmonds | 57.5kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Here Comes Ruby | 3 | Emily Pozman | M M Laurie | 52kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Thinking Gold | 10 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 59.5kg | $4.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Motiver | 8 | Jordan Childs | Mitchell Freedman | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Vizie | 4 | Fred W Kersley | Chris Calthorpe | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Vadarchie | 7 | Celine Gaudray | Aaron Laing | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
Consistent gelding with strong form at this distance (5-4-0 from 17 starts). The very fast tempo predicted may test his resilience.
Four-year-old mare showing improving form with a strong second placing last start at Sale. While her record at the distance is modest (2-2-4 from 12 starts), her tactical versatility and improving form pattern suggest she's ready to perform well despite the slight class rise.
Four-year-old mare who ran a solid 4th at Pakenham last start. The addition of ear muffs first time could help her focus better, and she gets the services of quality jockey Jamie Mott.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Educated | 2 | Celine Gaudray | C Maher | 55kg | $1.70 |
| 2nd | 1 | Tookay Pete | 7 | Emily Pozman | Melissa Page | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Commands Success | 1 | Holly Durnan | Dwayne Reid | 56kg | $4.80 |
| 4th | 6 | Fully Calculated | 4 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57.5kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Cool Charlie | 3 | Lachlan King | Erin Maher | 57kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Regal Secret | 5 | Jamie Mott | P Stokes | 56kg | $11.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Frose | 8 | Sarah Field | Jamie Barry | 54.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Auckland | 6 | Teodore Nugent | Simone Walker | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Machinist | 9 | Logan Bates | M Croston & G Gilmour | 56.5kg |
Mystic Reign brings strong credentials with 3 wins from 6 career starts and is dropping in class from her last start 5th in a BM78. While barrier 6 is slightly disadvantageous, her early speed should allow her to overcome this and be prominent in the expected fast tempo.
Jennyanydots brings a consistent record with 3 wins and 5 placings from 10 starts, including a strong record at this distance (2 wins, 3 placings from 6 starts). While first-up from a spell, she has 2 placings from 2 first-up attempts. The advantageous barrier 2 should allow her to utilize her early speed, though she carries top weight of 59.5kg. Her proven ability on good tracks (1 win, 3 placings from 6 starts) is another positive.
Runlikenencryption brings strong credentials dropping significantly in class after competing well in stronger company. Her record at this distance is excellent with 2 wins and 2 thirds from 5 starts, and she's proven on good tracks with 3 wins from 5 starts. Recent form includes a win at Sandown three starts back and a solid 4th at Flemington last start. The versatile racing style allows her to adapt to the expected fast tempo.
Soju represents excellent value with a stellar record at this track and distance (2 wins, 3 thirds from 6 starts). Ryan Houston knows the horse well with 5 previous rides, and the neutral barrier 4 should allow her to find a good position.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Sharing Moments | 8 | Damian Lane | Scott Cameron | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Honor Galore | 1 | Jamie Mott | C I Brown | 61kg | $4.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Jennyanydots | 2 | Luke Cartwright | Mitchell Freedman | 59.5kg | $3.70 |
| 4th | 6 | Soju | 4 | Ryan Houston | Simon Zahra | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Pure Bliss | 7 | Logan Bates | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Zoubelle | 3 | Celine Gaudray | J R Welsh | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Mystic Reign | 6 | Emily Pozman | G M Begg | 58.5kg | $3.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Runlikenencryption | 5 | Holly Durnan | Ben Brisbourne | 58.5kg |
Escarpa brings rock-solid form with three consecutive placings including a last-start third at Sandown. The mare has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 which should allow her to secure an ideal position in the fast-tempo race. Her record of 13:2-3-3 shows consistency, and Beau Mertens has won on her previously. While she hasn't raced at Cranbourne before, her adaptable racing style should suit the track configuration.
Mr Assertive comes off a last-start win at Geelong and boasts a strong record at this distance (4:1-0-3). Brad Rawiller stays aboard and should give him every chance from barrier 4. The gelding has shown consistent form with a 16:3-4-5 overall record. The main concerns are the significant class rise and top weight of 60kg, but his natural speed and barrier draw offset these negatives.
Blue Hawaiian brings an exceptional place record of 7:1-5-0 and is a previous winner at Cranbourne. The mare gets in with a light weight of 56kg and has the services of Luke Nolen. However, she's first-up from a 127-day spell and faces a significant class rise.
The gelding has a strong record at this distance (20:3-5-2) and has previously won at Cranbourne. Jamie Mott is a capable jockey with a good record at this track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Escarpa | 1 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 58kg | $2.90 |
| 2nd | 4 | Kyle | 8 | Jye McNeil | E Jusufovic | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Mr Assertive | 4 | Brad Rawiller | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 60kg | $3.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Rich Lover | 3 | Celine Gaudray | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 60kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Miss Tallchief | 2 | Jordan Childs | Tom Dabernig | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Superset | 11 | Zac Spain | Shawn Mathrick | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Snappy Secret | 7 | Patrick Moloney | Ms D Chapman | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Bold Response | 9 | Jamie Mott | Julius Sandhu | 58.5kg | $6.50 |
| Scr | 3 | Test Of Love | 10 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Supido's Choice | 6 | Logan Bates | R D Griffiths | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Volatile | 12 | Luke Cartwright | Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor | 57kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Blue Hawaiian | 5 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Bohemian Angel | 13 | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Free To Play | 14 | Melanie Bullard | 55kg |
The Jamie Mott/Julius Sandhu combination has a solid 17% strike rate, and Mott has won on this horse before. Despite the wide barrier, his tactical speed should allow him to find a good position in a race with fast predicted tempo.
This 3YO filly is dropping significantly in class and carries just 55.5kg. Her recent maiden win at Burrumbeet showed she's in winning form, and the middle barrier (7) gives options in a race with expected fast tempo. The King/Warren combination has produced winners before.
Late Harvest brings a strong second-up profile (1-1-0) into this race after a solid 3rd at Werribee 17 days ago. The Mark & Levi Kavanagh-trained gelding has been racing consistently with a win and a second in his last 5 starts. Jye McNeil is a quality rider who knows how to position his mounts, and from barrier 5, he should get an ideal run in midfield. The drop in class from BM56 is also favorable.
From the perfect barrier 1 draw, Patrick Moloney (20% strike rate last 20 rides) should give her every chance. While she's rising in class, her recent form suggests she's ready for it, and the fast tempo should suit her running style.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Late Harvest | 5 | Jye McNeil | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Valedictorian | 11 | Jamie Mott | Julius Sandhu | 57.5kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 1 | Time Allowed | 10 | Logan Bates | T Busuttin & N Young | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 3 | Wondering Spirit | 2 | Beau Mertens | T G Eurell | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Eden Rose | 7 | Lachlan King | Jason Warren | 55.5kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 7 | Moral Turpitude | 12 | Luke Cartwright | Erin Maher | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Taxing | 6 | Thomas Stockdale | T G Eurell | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Adjudicate | 4 | Luke Nolen | Mitchell Freedman | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Gijima Gal | 9 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Lucky Lucky Boom | 12 | D T O'Brien | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Navy Nina | 3 | Celine Gaudray | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Mislight | 1 | Patrick Moloney | Ms R Frost | 55kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Savannah Chill | 8 | Zac Spain | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56.5kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.