Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 6 February 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 8 races at Cranbourne. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Black Coal brings the strongest exposed form to this race with a narrow last-start second at Cranbourne over 1200m. The drop back to 1000m should suit given his forward racing pattern, and barrier 1 is ideal. Jamie Mott knows the horse and has a strong 18% strike rate with the Bedggood stable. The gelding is showing a clear upward trajectory in his form and appears ready to break through.
The booking of Craig Williams is significant, especially given his 29% strike rate when teaming up with trainer Tom Dabernig. While barrier 8 isn't ideal, his closing speed should allow him to overcome this. The drop back to 1000m may actually suit his finishing style in a race with likely fast tempo.
The McDonald stable typically presents their horses well-prepared, and the engagement of in-form jockey Jamie Melham (15% recent strike rate) is a positive sign. The tongue tie first-up indicates connections are addressing any potential breathing issues.
While she's yet to win, she has placed twice and should be suited by the predicted very fast tempo, allowing her to run on strongly. With backmarkers advantaged according to track bias data, she profiles well.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Black Coal | 1 | Jamie Mott | Gavin Bedggood | 59.5kg | $1.60 |
| 2nd | 5 | Harry De Lad | 8 | Craig Williams | Tom Dabernig | 59kg | $4.60 |
| 3rd | 8 | Last Piece | 3 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 57.5kg | $81.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Pursuant | 2 | Luke Currie | M M Laurie | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Jumpin' Jewellette | 6 | Zac Spain | Nathan Newton | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Dare Too Excite | 5 | Valentin Le Boeuf | F Stockdale | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Brutal Force | 4 | Jackson Radley | M Croston & G Gilmour | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Capital Design | 7 | Ben Brisbourne | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Balance | 9 | Jamie Melham | C W McDonald | 57kg |
The filly should get an ideal run from barrier 9 with the rail out, and the step up to 1200m looks ideal based on her finishing effort. Linda Meech is riding in top form (20% strike rate from last 20 rides) and has a strong record with the Busuttin/Young stable.
The perfect barrier draw and booking of Craig Williams (15% strike rate from last 20 rides) are significant positives. The Freedman stable has a strong record with well-prepared debutants.
The quick 7-day backup suggests fitness and trainer confidence. Jordan Childs retains the ride and is in good form with a 15% strike rate from his last 20 rides. The moderate-fast tempo should suit his racing pattern, and he appears ready to peak third-up.
The step up to 1200m should suit based on his strong finishing efforts, and jockey Luke Cartwright is in excellent form with a 20% strike rate from his last 20 rides. The moderate-fast tempo should allow him to settle midfield and finish strongly.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Arlington Row | 9 | Linda Meech | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 7 | Melian | 1 | Craig Williams | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $2.50 |
| 3rd | 4 | Midnight Man | 6 | Jordan Childs | M J Mehegan | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Bon Eros | 4 | Luke Currie | Clayton Douglas | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Distant Stripes | 8 | Thomas Stockdale | M M Laurie | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Gathers No Stone | 7 | Zac Spain | Shawn Mathrick | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Gold Franc | 3 | Valentin Le Boeuf | F Stockdale | 59.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 5 | On My Own | 5 | Luke Cartwright | Geon Singh | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Hurry Up Poppy | 2 | M C Kent | 57.5kg |
Second up suitability aligns with stats (0:0-1-0 second up). Moderate tempo and Cranbourne's on-pace bias favour midfield map.
Moderate tempo may suit if saves ground early. Not top form pick due to class jump but barrier elevates chance.
Avenues shows consistent form (32217x2217x2) with recent 2nd in BM66 at Pakenham, high place rate, and second up record. Good 4 suits (6:2-2-0), fitness trend positive.
Moody stable, blinkers back on.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Olney | 1 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Rainbow Delight | 3 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 9 | Diamanda | 5 | Caitlin Hollowood | M T Binney | 52kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Draw Attention | 7 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Bavicia | 2 | Koby Jennings | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Avenues | 8 | Luke Cartwright | M C Kent | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 7 | Towntotown | 4 | Craig Williams | Julius Sandhu | 55kg | $6.50 |
| 8th | 3 | Brilliant Venture | 6 | Ryan Houston | Andrea Leek | 58.5kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Red Aces | 9 | Makisha Salter | R J Blacker | 60kg | $61.00 |
The class drop compensates for the top weight, and his tactical speed should allow him to utilize the inside draw effectively despite the predicted fast tempo.
Nimbustwothousand presents as a genuine chance despite being first-up from a spell. His fresh record (2: 0-1-1) suggests he performs well when resuming, and his overall consistency (11: 3-2-1) is impressive. While he lacks experience at this track and distance, his adaptability across different conditions and strong heavy track record (2: 2-0-0) indicate versatility. The wide draw is mitigated by his ability to settle midfield, and the 56kg weight is advantageous.
Port Albert brings solid credentials as a second-up performer (5: 1-1-0) with an excellent record at this distance (16: 3-1-4). While he lacks experience at Cranbourne and carries equal top weight, his tactical speed should allow him to take up a forward position from barrier 4, which is advantageous at this track. The class drop compensates for the weight impost.
While he's rising significantly in class, his consistent form pattern (121173x4731) suggests he's capable of handling the step up. His one previous run at Cranbourne resulted in a placing, indicating track suitability.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Port Albert | 4 | Jamie Mott | Nick Ryan | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Sparring | 5 | Craig Williams | R T Stubbs | 58.5kg | $20.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Blackberry Bomb | 6 | Ryan Houston | Simon Zahra | 53kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Philosopher | 1 | Rose Hammond | E Jusufovic | 60kg | $3.50 |
| 5th | 6 | Nimbustwothousand | 7 | Beau Mertens | Gavin Bedggood | 56kg | $3.90 |
| 6th | 4 | Dreamzel | 2 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 5 | Condor | 3 | Jackson Radley | T Fitzsimmons | 54.5kg | $6.50 |
Fluent brings the strongest recent form into this race, winning last start at Sandown over this distance. With an ideal barrier draw and proven ability on good tracks, she maps to get an ideal run in midfield and should prove too strong.
Nordic Strike is a promising 3YO who has won his last two starts including over this course and distance. The favorable barrier draw should allow him to utilize his early speed.
She's dropping significantly in class and has the benefit of an in-form jockey in Ethan Brown who boasts an impressive 35% strike rate from his last 20 rides.
He boasts a strong first-up record with a win and a placing from two attempts, and the booking of Luke Currie (20% strike rate from last 20 rides) is significant. While he's primarily been a synthetic track specialist, his barrier 1 draw should allow him to utilize his early speed and be prominent throughout.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Fluent | 3 | Thomas Stockdale | Andrew Noblet | 58kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 2 | Highland Harley | 7 | Rose Hammond | E Jusufovic | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Street Conqueror | 4 | Craig Williams | E Jusufovic | 58kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 3 | Aqueduct | 1 | Luke Currie | T & C McEvoy | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Pano's Pride | 5 | Caitlin Hollowood | D Binaisse | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Nordic Strike | 2 | Luke Cartwright | C Maher | 55kg | $3.70 |
| 7th | 4 | El Tercero | 8 | Linda Meech | T Busuttin & N Young | 58.5kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 6 | Shaime | 6 | Ethan Brown | C I Brown | 58kg | $6.00 |
Migliorare earned second pick via barrier 1, recent Cranbourne 1000m maiden win (Good 4, matching conditions) and lightly raced profile. Inside draw exploits neutral barrier bias in sprint start. Class rise noted but progressive type suits fast tempo. Stronger form than other debut winners like #4.
First up (2:0-1-0) but elite closing ability suits very fast tempo and Cranbourne backmarker bias. Blinkers/gelding enhance freshness.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Gwen's Girl | 6 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 57kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Eternal Darkness | 2 | Mitchell Aitken | Anthony Chibnall | 60.5kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Superliv | 3 | Thomas Stockdale | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Migliorare | 1 | Celine Gaudray | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 6 | Gaeilge | 5 | Ethan Brown | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $2.30 |
| 6th | 2 | Chicago Blues | 8 | Zac Spain | Jason Warren | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Nicereine | 4 | Beau Mertens | Peter Gelagotis | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Yamashita's Gold | 9 | Jamie Mott | Gavin Bedggood | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Wicked Storm | 7 | Jye McNeil | Patrick & Michelle Payne | 58.5kg |
Sumo Sandy brings the strongest recent form into this race with consecutive wins, including a dominant performance at Pakenham over this distance. While stepping up in class, he's shown progressive improvement with each run and has tactical versatility to overcome the wide draw. His record at Cranbourne (3: 0-1-1) suggests he handles the track well, and Linda Meech maintains the ride after their last-start success.
Itsukushima brings rock-solid consistency with five consecutive second placings, demonstrating his competitiveness at this level. His record at the mile (16: 1-6-4) is excellent, and he drops 0.5kg from his last start. The booking of in-form jockey Ethan Brown (35% strike rate from last 20 rides) is significant, though he'll need to overcome barrier 9. His ability to perform consistently across different tracks makes him a genuine threat.
Storm Ahead brings strong recent form with a win and second from his last two starts, including a victory at this track and distance. His record at Cranbourne (2: 1-1-0) is excellent, and he's proven at the mile (5: 1-1-1).
While stepping up in class, he's drawn well in barrier 4 and has a progressive profile with more upside than most. His tactical versatility should allow him to position favorably in the run, and his second-up pattern suggests significant improvement is likely.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Itsukushima | 9 | Ethan Brown | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 3 | Sumo Sandy | 10 | Linda Meech | T Busuttin & N Young | 59.5kg | $3.60 |
| 3rd | 9 | Phineas | 1 | Fred W Kersley | C W McDonald | 58kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Storm Ahead | 6 | Craig Williams | Julius Sandhu | 58.5kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 6 | Understudy | 4 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Savvie Blanc | 3 | Zac Spain | E J Bourke | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Crown Crusher | 5 | Jamie Mott | S V Brown | 60kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Torn | 7 | Lachlan King | Ben Brisbourne | 59kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Jewel Bay | 2 | Ryan Houston | Andrea Leek | 56kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Two Sigma | 8 | Luke Cartwright | Reece Goodwin | 55kg |
Esquel brings the strongest form credentials with an impressive 43% win strike rate and last-start victory at Geelong. The inside draw is perfect for her forward racing style at Cranbourne, and she's proven on good tracks with 3 wins from 6 starts. Linda Meech has won on her before and is in good form (20% strike rate).
Olivia Rose brings strong recent form with a last-start win at Pakenham. Her record at this distance is excellent (2 wins from 4 starts) and she's drawn perfectly in barrier 2 for her forward racing style. The class rise is a concern, but she's proven on good tracks and has the tactical speed to take advantage of her inside draw at Cranbourne.
Her place strike rate of 47% highlights her reliability, and she's dropping slightly in class. While drawn wide in barrier 10, she has tactical speed to overcome this. Ryan Houston is riding in good form with a 20% strike rate from his last 20 rides. The very fast tempo predicted should suit her running style.
Her last start third at Pakenham showed she's in good form, and while her win strike rate is modest at 13%, she's been competing at much higher levels.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Written Bligh | 10 | Ryan Houston | G M Begg | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 6 | Olivia Rose | 2 | Luke Cartwright | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $1.85 |
| 3rd | 1 | Trial By Press | 9 | Rose Hammond | G Eurell | 60kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Esquel | 1 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 61.5kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 7 | Starmae | 7 | Zac Spain | Dwayne Reid | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Grinzinger Pod | 5 | Lachlan King | Ben Brisbourne | 60kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Sweet 'n' Spicy | 4 | Thomas Stockdale | Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Shyleah | 6 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Wiltshire Square | 8 | C Maher | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | No Overtaking | 3 | Jye McNeil | Brent Stanley | 57.5kg |
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