Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Saturday 14 February 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 7 races at Ballarat. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Orchid Sky brings proven Group 3 experience to a maiden field, representing a significant class drop. The John Allen booking and trainer combination success rate signals stable confidence. While yet to win, the racing experience and fitness advantage over multiple debutants provides a clear edge in this competitive maiden.
Regal Ambition represents the powerful Hayes stable making their debut with gear adjustments suggesting readiness. The stable's reputation with debutants makes this a strong threat despite the form void.
The significant class drop and inside barrier provide tactical advantages, though the jockey's current form drought and top weight assignment present concerns. The speed ability shown suggests strong winning chances.
Tolaga Bay offers value with Liam Riordan's outstanding recent form (25% strike rate) and strong trainer combination.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Tolaga Bay | 3 | Liam Riordan | M W Walker | 56kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Regal Ambition | 6 | Lachlan Neindorf | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $2.40 |
| 3rd | 3 | Expensive Taste | 2 | Jett Stanley | T & C McEvoy | 56kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 2 | Whimsy Smile | 5 | Will Gordon | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 5 | Orchid Sky | 7 | John Allen | P Kearney | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 1 | The Cellist | 4 | Jake Duffy | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Victrix Swan | 1 | Milos Bunjevac | D J O'Prey | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Modest Intentions | 8 | Jack Hill | Cameron Templeton | 56kg | $151.00 |
Incontestable presents the strongest winning chance with a perfect placing record from two starts, including narrow defeats at Geelong and Werribee. The Brad Rawiller booking and consistent close finishes suggest he's ready to break through.
Xuxa Kiss showed improvement with a solid second at Cranbourne last start, suggesting she's finding her form.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Bel Mezyaan | 12 | Lachlan Neindorf | Jerome Hunter | 59kg | $1.70 |
| 2nd | 7 | Incontestable | 9 | Brad Rawiller | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 10 | Dame I Am | 13 | Melissa Julius | Shay Keating | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Swift Statement | 11 | Mitchell Aitken | Chris Calthorpe | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Burleigh | 2 | John Allen | C Maher | 59kg | $8.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Xuxa Kiss | 8 | Jake Noonan | C I Brown | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Hard Hitter | 10 | Tom Madden | Andrew Noblet | 59kg | $71.00 |
| 8th | 12 | Wild Ruby | 6 | Alana Kelly | Mitchell Freedman | 57.5kg | $20.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Wavelets | 4 | Cian Macredmond | Thomas Carberry | 57.5kg | $51.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Corro | 1 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 11th | 16 | Nightynight | 5 | Jack Hill | K G McCartin | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 12th | 15 | Nip | 3 | Rhys Mc Leod | P G Payne | 59kg | $151.00 |
| 13th | 8 | Live Forever | 7 | Will Gordon | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59kg | $11.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Bialiatski | 15 | W Morrissey | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Bozza | 15 | V L Malady | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Slick Vixen | 15 | Henry Dwyer | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Aura The Scorer | 15 | Mitchell Freedman | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Waltzing Matilda | 3 | P Kearney | 57kg |
The Maher stable excels with first-up runners, and the removal of the Norton bit suggests they've found the key to unlock her potential. Strong jockey booking and forward barrier position make her the most likely winner despite maiden status.
The 50-day gap is ideal spacing, and she's proven at the 1000m distance.
Villa Capitalista represents the classic first-up improver with significant gear changes including gelding. The John Allen booking suggests stable confidence, and the extended spell allows for physical development. While carrying top weight, the gear changes and quality booking make him a genuine winning chance.
Lonstar offers excellent value dropping significantly in class from Open company to maiden level. The Freedman stable excels with first-up runners, and new gear suggests they've addressed previous issues.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Lonstar | 7 | Will Gordon | A & S Freedman | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 13 | Smoke Screen | 5 | Jack Hill | C Maher | 57kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 16 | Villa Capitalista | 8 | John Allen | Tom Dabernig | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 4th | 7 | Prestige Erick | 3 | Jake Duffy | Matt Jenkins | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 14 | Sternin | 6 | Linda Meech | Mitchell Freedman | 57kg | $3.90 |
| 6th | 17 | Super Dirty | 11 | Mitchell Aitken | T Fitzsimmons | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 15 | Servenia | 9 | Jake Noonan | C I Brown | 57kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Czech Republic | 2 | Brad Rawiller | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Krasnoludek | 4 | Cian Macredmond | Robert Hickmott | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Yatchaw | 12 | Thomas Doyle | Ms M Cunningham | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 8 | Tempered Edge | 1 | Logan McNeil | R J Blacker | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 3 | Dance The Foxtrot | 10 | Eoin Walsh | Chris Calthorpe | 59kg | $151.00 |
| 13th | 6 | Presno | 13 | Alana Kelly | Thomas Conlan | 59kg | $81.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Bold Suitor | 15 | A W Noonan | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Waylona Girl | 13 | Michael Huglin | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Ostrom | 13 | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Prestige Ania | 1 | Melea Castle | Matt Jenkins | 57kg | |
| Scr | 18 | New Character | 11 | M M Laurie | 59kg |
Tangoette presents as the most logical winner with a strong first-up record and proven ability at this distance. The tongue tie addition suggests connections expect improvement, and the class drop from recent BM64 attempts provides a winnable opportunity.
Fightthegoodfight offers strong value as a lightly-raced mare stepping back in class after Group company exposure. The significant class drop from Listed/Group level to BM56 provides a major advantage, and her finishing style suits Ballarat's long straight.
Simply Sassy brings strong stable connections and proven first-up ability to this assignment. The Kelly/Williams combination strikes at 50%, and her maiden win demonstrates ability.
The significant class drop from BM62/66 level provides a major advantage, making him a strong value proposition despite recent inconsistency.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | El Salto | 5 | Sam Kennedy | L E Robertson | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Simply Sassy | 7 | Alana Kelly | M J Williams | 58.5kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 11 | Tangoette | 4 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 4th | 1 | Marty Mcfly | 9 | Bailey Kinninmont | T Fitzsimmons | 60kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Too Darn Crystal | 6 | John Allen | Niki O'Shea | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Somebody Told Me | 2 | Tom Madden | J P Salanitri | 62kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Foxy Heart | 8 | Cian Macredmond | Andrew Noblet | 60.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Fightthegoodfight | 3 | Nadia Daniels | Steven King | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Red Sphere | 1 | Lucinda Boyd | Lucinda Boyd | 61kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Hi Tiago | 6 | Yoshitomo Shima | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Dry Fire | 3 | Nick Ryan | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Raging Monkey | 9 | L E Robertson | 55.5kg |
The McEvoy/Meech combination is proven successful, and she's drawn well to settle handy.
The class rise is manageable given her recent improvement.
Recent Terang placing demonstrates current form, and the John Allen booking suggests connections believe she can improve. The class rise and distance query are concerns but her raw speed gives her a chance.
Well-credentialed mare dropping significantly in class from Group/Listed company. Previous Ballarat winner with proven 1200m ability, though first-up record is concerning.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Grammy's Sunshine | 3 | Linda Meech | T & C McEvoy | 60kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 2 | Dantooine | 7 | Jordyn Weatherley | Tom Dabernig | 61kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Superset | 4 | Bailey Kinninmont | Shawn Mathrick | 61kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Secretdream | 5 | Cian Macredmond | Matthew Cumani | 60.5kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Amraam | 9 | Jake Noonan | C I Brown | 61.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 15 | Misty Emotions | 12 | Tom Madden | J P Salanitri | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Miss Trustful | 6 | Lachlan Neindorf | C Maher | 62kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 13 | Brave Carol | 10 | John Allen | Andrew Noblet | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 9th | 14 | Eraantyva | 13 | Rhys Mc Leod | T Fitzsimmons | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Stand By Me Ned | 11 | Mitchell Aitken | Ms M Lawson | 61.5kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Vinnie's Turn | 8 | Brad Rawiller | Linc Sullivan | 61.5kg | $41.00 |
| 12th | 18 | Wild Irish Rover | 2 | Will Gordon | Annalise Maragos | 61kg | $51.00 |
| 13th | 5 | Brickee | 1 | Milos Bunjevac | D J O'Prey | 61.5kg | $91.00 |
| 14th | 8 | Olivia's Scandal | 14 | Chelsea Taylor | Jordy Coffey | 61kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 10 | Zousinger | 14 | Shane Nichols & Hayden Black | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Prancing Queen | 15 | Michael Huglin | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Lennystar | 15 | John McArdle | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | The Wizard King | 7 | Shawn Mathrick | 61kg |
While the class rise is significant, his form trajectory and track suitability make him the standout.
Subtle Power offers the best value among the leading chances with a proven 1600m record including a win. Her recent placings at Geelong and Pakenham show she's competitive at this level. The gear changes - nose roll and pacifiers first time with winkers off - suggest connections are trying to unlock improvement. The Hayes stable's double-handed approach adds confidence.
This Is The Moment represents the best roughie chance with a strong 1600m record and class drop working in his favor. The recent 3rd at Wangaratta shows he's competitive at this level, and the barrier 2 draw suits his racing pattern.
While the class rise is significant, her recent form suggests she's ready for the step up.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Storm Leopard | 5 | Brad Rawiller | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | $1.70 |
| 2nd | 11 | Subtle Power | 6 | Lachlan Neindorf | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57.5kg | $3.60 |
| 3rd | 7 | Sakakibara | 1 | Will Gordon | Symon Wilde | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Dance Lady | 3 | Jack Hill | Simon Zahra | 57kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 4 | This Is The Moment | 2 | Milos Bunjevac | D J O'Prey | 60kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Triple Oh | 7 | Christopher Pang | Tom Dabernig | 54kg | $20.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Coorong | 4 | Rhys Mc Leod | Thomas Sadler | 60kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 12 | All The Way Baby | 8 | Alana Kelly | M J Williams | 57kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 15 | Well Held | 9 | Cian Macredmond | Ms M Cunningham | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Sound Of Jura | 3 | Ms A Yates | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Seeyou Raider | 15 | Jody Thompson | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Delta Sky | 13 | Lee & Shannon Hope | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Sinhalese | 11 | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Russian Duchess | 8 | C Maher | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | She's Impeccable | 10 | Shane Jackson | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Divine Turf | 11 | Chris Calthorpe | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Lucky Compass | 1 | K T Bourke | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Hidden Witness | 7 | Brittany Raymond | 54kg |
McEvoy and Meech combine at 27% strike rate, while the mare has already won at this track. The 178-day freshen-up should have her primed, and the weight drop to 59kg enhances her chances significantly in this BM56.
This Kavanagh-trained mare broke through for her maiden win last preparation and historically performs well second-up. The Brad Rawiller booking indicates stable confidence, and her recent form shows consistent improvement. The long spell is a concern, but her proven ability at this distance range makes her a genuine threat.
The addition of blinkers for the first time could provide the edge needed, while his barrier one draw gives him every chance to find a forward position.
With only three career runs, she has significant improvement scope and her good track record suggests she can handle the step up. The Jack Hill booking adds confidence to this value play.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 14 | Simply Outrageous | 11 | Linda Meech | T & C McEvoy | 59kg | $2.60 |
| 2nd | 10 | Runway Ruler | 5 | Jake Noonan | Tom Dabernig | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 3rd | 12 | Sara's Rocket | 6 | Jack Hill | Jamie Edwards | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Kansherun | 12 | Brad Rawiller | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Written Royalty | 10 | Rose Hammond | Ms G Johnstone | 59.5kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 17 | Salchow | 1 | Rhys Mc Leod | Dan O'Sullivan | 60kg | $7.00 |
| 7th | 16 | Solar Mist | 4 | Alana Kelly | C V Kelly | 60kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Eyes Wide Shut | 7 | Jett Stanley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Jaz Tycoon | 13 | Liam Riordan | Ms M Cunningham | 61.5kg | $16.00 |
| 10th | 15 | Short Reply | 3 | John Allen | Niki O'Shea | 58.5kg | $16.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Ex Machina | 14 | Eoin Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 60.5kg | $26.00 |
| 12th | 8 | Vincentina | 8 | Zac Moore | C Maher | 56.5kg | $11.00 |
| 13th | 1 | Wild Chap | 9 | Cian Macredmond | Ms M Cunningham | 68.5kg | $61.00 |
| 14th | 3 | Ghemme | 2 | Jake Duffy | Thomas Sadler | 62kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Bit Of Shoosh | 11 | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Proshow | 15 | Jason Warren | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Bellalique | 15 | P A Preusker | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Chica Con Suerte | 18 | Andrew Noblet | 57kg |
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