Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Wednesday 11 March 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Warwick Farm. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Debutant from A & S Freedman with Tommy Berry aboard tops form proxy assessment. Elite connections (22% jockey-trainer combo) and barrier 3 provide map advantage in moderate-fast tempo. Absence of form not penalised per rules; superior to rivals on trainer/jockey metrics despite Soft 6 conditions.
Chris Waller's Leonessa earns second pick via strong proxy evaluation in this all-debutant heavy Maiden. Kerrin McEvoy (15% recent form) from barrier 5 maps midfield in likely moderate-fast tempo.
Second up (0:0-0-0 stat but improving) with Waterhouse/Bott and Bayliss (25% recent). Soft 6 form and class drop aid Soft 6 suitability over pure debutants.
Freedman/Clark (25% combo) plus recent fitness trumps pure debutants in volatile Maiden. Soft 6 proven but winless record caps confidence; ideal for place value.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Satono Glow | 7 | Dylan Gibbons | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Aryaam | 3 | Tommy Berry | A & S Freedman | 58kg | $2.25 |
| 3rd | 2 | Chataigne | 1 | Rachel King | G Portelli | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Rebel Elegance | 6 | Tom Sherry | Peter Snowden | 58kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 8 | The Wildling | 4 | Regan Bayliss | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Leonessa | 5 | Kerrin Mc Evoy | C J Waller | 58kg | $3.30 |
| Scr | 3 | Hellenic Belle | 3 | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Ektifire | 2 | Tim Clark | A & S Freedman | 57.5kg |
Peyton tops form assessment via superior connections in maiden debut. O'Shea stable excels with first starters; Gibbons 15% recent form and 15% combo strike rate signal intent. Barrier 7 ideal for midfield in fast tempo race suiting Warwick Farm's fair chute start. Best win chance in high-volatility maiden.
Steel Will ranks highly on Waller stable strength and Rawiller booking in debut maiden. Despite jockey's recent dry spell, 9% combo win rate and Waller debut success elevate it. Fast tempo suits handy type from barrier 8 on Warwick Farm's fair 1000m chute.
Fast tempo may suit if leads, but lacks Peyton/Waller's stable edge. Strong place contender.
McEvoy's 14% track strike and Smith stable suit midweek maiden. Clear overlay vs top selections.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | The Next Episode | 3 | Jason Collett | C Maher | 58kg | $2.60 |
| 2nd | 8 | Under Focus | 6 | Tyler Schiller | K A Lees | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Steel Will | 8 | Nash Rawiller | C J Waller | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Baylie's Folly | 2 | Kerrin Mc Evoy | Matthew Smith | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Peyton | 7 | Dylan Gibbons | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Zensen | 5 | Rachel King | G Portelli | 58kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Belvante | 1 | Tommy Berry | A & S Freedman | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Konomie | 9 | Tom Sherry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 58kg | $15.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Bold Bucks | 4 | Chad Schofield | Richard & Will Freedman | 58kg |
Class drop from G2/Listed huge positive, prior 1400m second strong. Warwick Farm 1400m chute start fair, midfield map suits moderate-fast tempo.
Warwick Farm record (place) positive for chute 1400m. On-pace bias suits midfield map in moderate-fast tempo.
Consistent recent form with places at Rosehill/Gosford/Warwick Farm. Barrier 1 ideal for Warwick Farm on-pace bias (22% win rate), suits moderate-fast tempo as likely leader. Waller filly with 55kg edge. Solid top-3 chance despite distance query.
Soft 6 suits (3 soft starts), blinkers could sharpen. Midfield map fine, Sherry in career-best form.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Spice Prawn | 5 | Tom Sherry | Peter Snowden | 55kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 1 | Eynesbury | 3 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Sphere | 1 | Jason Collett | C J Waller | 55kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Bella Wahine | 2 | Kerrin Mc Evoy | C J Waller | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Nordic Viking | 6 | Nash Rawiller | J G Sargent | 57kg | $2.80 |
| 6th | 5 | The Yeti | 4 | Sam Clipperton | C J Waller | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Maidoff | 8 | Dylan Gibbons | C E Conners | 57kg | $2.90 |
| Scr | 2 | Flying Party | 7 | Adam Farragher | C Maher | 57kg |
Rachel King excels at Warwick Farm (24% win rate), barrier 4 suits midfield settling in leaders-biased track. Maiden volatility high but strongest connections in debutant field outweigh unknowns on Soft 6.
Waterhouse/Bott runner with Tim Clark aboard, excellent at Warwick Farm (22% wins). Barrier 5 ideal for on-pace map in moderate-fast tempo favouring leaders/handy types. No penalising lack of form per maiden rules; stable/jockey proxy rates highly despite Soft 6 unknowns.
Soft record supports today's Soft 6. First up after spell but consistent trend, blinkers may sharpen. Barrier 7 ok in fair chute start.
Barrier 2 ideal for Warwick Farm sprint leaders bias (22% win rate), Bayliss flying (25% recent). Stable unlikely to run three without intent; maps on-pace in moderate-fast tempo. Proxy assessment strong despite no form, offers value overlay vs assessed chances in volatile maiden.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Castlejohn | 1 | Chad Schofield | Joseph Pride | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Metallic Cat | 5 | Tim Clark | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 57kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 5 | Compensation | 4 | Rachel King | Bjorn Baker | 58.5kg | $1.75 |
| 4th | 9 | Look Here | 7 | Tommy Berry | Peter Snowden | 56.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Mumbai Maharani | 2 | Regan Bayliss | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Star Half | 11 | Tyler Schiller | M, W & J Hawkes | 58.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Rebel Blaze | 3 | Jason Collett | G Portelli | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Charlie Hustle | 8 | Jay Ford | C Karakatsanis | 58.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Public Bar | 6 | Dylan Gibbons | J C Coyle | 59kg | |
| Scr | 2 | Call Me Rookie | 10 | Nash Rawiller | David Pfieffer | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | The Champion | 9 | G Portelli | 58.5kg |
Light weight, barrier advantageous per track bias, suits fast tempo from midfield.
Recent G2 7th respectable with fitness edge (11 days). Wide draw concern but Warwick Farm 1600m chute fairer; fast tempo suits late charge. Solid place claims despite top pick edging on speed.
Strong first-up profile (3:2-0-1) from elite stable, soft win, barrier 4 ideal for Warwick Farm inside bias. Recent BM78 win at longer trip shows class; fitness query after long spell but trainers excel fresh.
High track suitability, stable hot; fast tempo from leaders suits settling handy.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Fiddlers Green | 8 | Braith Nock | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 54.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 7 | Dreams Come True | 3 | Jason Collett | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 57.5kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Cap Saint Martin | 7 | Adam Hyeronimus | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Mirzann | 10 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 12 | Belleistic Kids | 5 | Rachel King | B Joseph & P & M Jones | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Majorian | 1 | Tom Sherry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Unique Ambition | 12 | Dylan Gibbons | J G Sargent | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Spanish Blaze | 9 | Nash Rawiller | A & S Freedman | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Freight Train | 4 | Chad Schofield | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 60kg | $3.90 |
| 10th | 1 | Bianco Vilano | 6 | Tyler Schiller | R T Stubbs | 60kg | $14.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Saint Emilion | 2 | Tim Clark | C Maher | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Fioprospero | 11 | Ashley Morgan | Matthew Smith | 55.5kg |
Chute start fair at Warwick Farm.
Fast tempo may suit handy run. Solid place claims despite modest win strike.
Recent runs fair in grade; barrier 4 advantageous. Blinkers add focus. Fast tempo favours her finishing strength over pure leaders.
Recent 5th had sharp finish; light 52kg and barrier 5 ideal.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Nesrine | 8 | Olivia Chambers | Jason Attard | 56.5kg | $3.20 |
| 2nd | 5 | Ernaux | 7 | Zac Wadick | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $4.60 |
| 3rd | 10 | Dear Jewel | 3 | Rebecca Bronett Prag | Joseph Pride | 51kg | $4.20 |
| 4th | 9 | Balmain Darling | 5 | Claire Ramsbotham | Bjorn Baker | 52kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 8 | Jenni The Jet | 2 | Braith Nock | Matthew Dale | 55kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Vanessi | 1 | Mitch Stapleford | C J Waller | 54.5kg | $5.50 |
| 7th | 4 | Open Secret | 6 | Anna Roper | John Thompson | 57kg | $15.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Bomarea | 7 | M P Quinn | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Thames | 4 | William A Stanley | G Portelli | 57kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Opal Fields | 9 | Sara Ryan | 57kg |
Recent 2nd at BM78 level on good ground, now drops in class with proven soft form (6:1-2-1). Midfield position ideal for Warwick Farm chute start and fast tempo.
Strong 1100m record (9:2-1-2), dropping in class, advantageous barrier 5 for leaders' track. Soft suitability high despite limited stats; midfield map suits fast tempo.
Grand Prairie fits Warwick Farm leaders' bias as likely leader, first-up record strong (2:1-1-0). Wet performer (soft 5:2-1-0, heavy 2:0-2-0), suits Soft 6 and fast tempo. Recent G3 formlines solid despite finishes; class drop helps. Barrier 7 manageable in chute start.
Tongue tie could sharpen; fitness edge (12 days).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Our Queen | 4 | Tim Clark | Bjorn Baker | 56.5kg | $3.20 |
| 2nd | 3 | Grand Prairie | 7 | Tom Sherry | Peter Snowden | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Sweethearted | 5 | Chad Schofield | P Stokes | 60.5kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Polyglot | 6 | Nash Rawiller | Michael Freedman | 59kg | $2.90 |
| 5th | 5 | Flying Embers | 8 | Kerrin Mc Evoy | John Thompson | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Icarian Dream | 9 | Jason Collett | C Maher | 57.5kg | $9.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Unstopabull | 3 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 56kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Shalaa Gold | 1 | Rachel King | Bjorn Baker | 56kg | $15.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Fine Vintage | 2 | William A Stanley | Luke Pepper | 57kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Nesrine | 5 | Jason Attard | 54.5kg |
Barrier 4 enhances on-pace map in fast tempo favoring handy runners at Warwick Farm. Not selected over Sarrismo due to track/distance win edge, but clear top threat.
Second up from spell aligns with 2:0-1-1 record. Barrier 5 perfect for midfield settling in fast tempo race favoring on-pace types at tight-turning Warwick Farm. Elite connections (O'Shea/Gibbons) outweigh soft track query.
Satirically's debut win at Warwick Farm 1400m (recent race) from Waterhouse/Bott stable shows huge promise. Barrier 6 ideal for fast tempo, light weight aids. Proxy form strong (trainer first-up high strike, pedigree Snitzel suits). Soft unproven but not penalized per maiden rule.
High soft suitability (2:1-0-0) perfect for Soft 6. Barrier 7 suits midfield in fast tempo favoring closers slightly. Snowden/Sherry combo hot (19% trainer/jockey).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Hanau | 1 | William A Stanley | M S Minervini | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 7 | Monte Veebee | 4 | Regan Bayliss | Bjorn Baker | 59.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 13 | Slinky | 13 | Rachel King | Bjorn Baker | 58kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 12 | Pictor | 11 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Crossbow | 3 | Jason Collett | C J Waller | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Brigidine Gal | 12 | Nash Rawiller | Joseph Pride | 61kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 15 | Zoufield | 10 | Tim Clark | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 56kg | $3.50 |
| 8th | 2 | Northern Eyes | 2 | Anna Roper | Ms K Waugh | 60kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Zarizatycoon | 8 | Grant Buckley | Ms G Williams | 60kg | $41.00 |
| 10th | 16 | King Of Florida | 9 | Deanne Panya | Bryce Heys | 55.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Prancing Spirit | 14 | Chad Schofield | P Stokes | 63kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Aligned | 7 | Tom Sherry | Peter Snowden | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Sarrismo | 5 | Dylan Gibbons | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Fiddlers Green | 8 | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Unstopabull | 3 | C J Waller | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Satirically | 6 | Adam Hyeronimus | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 57kg |
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