Rosehill tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.00 · Zac Lloyd

Flightcrew has been the most consistent performer at this class level with two close seconds in her last four starts. The very fast predicted tempo strongly suits her closing pattern. The wide barrier is a concern at 1200m but her quality and finishing power should overcome it in a genuinely-run race.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.90 · James Mc Donald

His last three runs show clear improvement with margins closing. The step up from 1100m to 1200m looks suitable given his closing pattern. However, his modest 10% win rate and class rise temper enthusiasm slightly.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Dylan Gibbons

His Group 2 third in the Moonee Valley Cup and Melbourne Cup appearance prove he has the class to handle BM78 with ease. The Canterbury run was a pipe-opener second up from a long spell, and significant improvement is expected. At 55kg bottom weight over 1900m, he gets ideal conditions.

Our price $5.00 · SP $10.00 · Tommy Berry

The step to Good 4 today suits her record (0-0-2 from 2 Good starts). The Berry-Freedman combination adds confidence.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Chad Schofield

First-time tongue tie from the Maher stable signals intent. Barrier 3 is ideal for Rosehill 1200m and the return to Good 4 should see improvement.

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.00 · Nash Rawiller

The class drop from Group 2 is significant. The wide barrier and likely leader role in a very fast tempo are concerns, but his proven finishing ability and class edge over most of this field make him a strong each-way proposition.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.60 · James Mc Donald

Wootton Verni is a proven 2000m performer with four wins from five starts at the trip, including a Group 3 victory at Randwick in November. His last two runs at 1400-1600m in Group company were clearly building fitness for this target distance. The fast predicted tempo perfectly suits his midfield-settling, strong-finishing style. McDonald's engagement on a Waller-trained horse at its peak distance makes this the most likely winner despite no Rosehill record.

Our price $12.00 · SP $15.00 · Zac Lloyd

The step up from 1600m first-up to 2000m second-up mirrors his successful spring pattern. Barrier 5 and a fast tempo suit his midfield settling style.

Our price $4.00 · SP $6.50 · Tim Clark

Tonkin is the standout form horse with a remarkable 100% place rate from 8 starts. Second up she should improve, and the predicted very fast tempo perfectly suits her closing style. The class rise is the query, but her trajectory is sharply upward and she gets in light at 54.5kg. Tim Clark is a strong booking for the Freedmans.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · Adam Hyeronimus

Kerguelen won impressively at this track and distance last start and has a superb first-up record, but the second-up query and wide barrier 10 at Rosehill 1100m are genuine concerns. As a likely leader drawn wide, he'll need to burn energy to cross, and with another leader inside him the predicted very fast tempo could compromise his finish. The Hyeronimus combination is excellent but the class rise and tactical disadvantages temper enthusiasm.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Jason Collett

The last-start Group 1 failure can be forgiven given the class jump. The unknown Rosehill factor is the risk.

Our price $6.00 · SP $13.00 · Tommy Berry

Panova is a genuine Group performer with two black-type wins and a 67% place rate. Her Surround Stakes sixth was a solid first-up effort and she typically improves second up. The very fast predicted tempo is ideal for her closing style, and the 2kg filly allowance gives her a real edge in this compressed weight scale. The wide barrier is a concern but Berry should manage it.

Our price $10.00 · SP $12.00 · Jason Collett

The concern is his low win strike rate - he finds ways to get beaten. However, the very fast tempo should suit his midfield settling position and strong finish.

Our price $12.00 · SP $18.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

Soverato is a progressive Waller filly with an outstanding 50% win rate and 75% place rate from just 4 starts. She has proven 1500m form and draws perfectly in barrier 2 at Rosehill. The massive class rise from BM72 to Group 2 is the obvious query, but her trajectory is sharply upward and Waller wouldn't place her here without confidence.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.20 · Nash Rawiller

The very fast predicted tempo perfectly suits her off-pace style, and the 3kg WFA advantage over older mares is significant at this level. Her 70% place rate from 10 starts demonstrates elite consistency.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Zac Lloyd

Ole Dancer is a proven Group 1 winner (Thousand Guineas) stepping back to 1500m after a creditable 3rd in the Surround Stakes. The 3kg WFA advantage as a 3yo is significant. The main concerns are the wide barrier and first-time Rosehill racing, but her class and ability should overcome these.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · Craig Williams

She has a 38% career win rate and draws ideally in barrier 4 at Rosehill 1500m. The step from 1400m to 1500m looks manageable given her Flemington 1600m win. The Group 1 class rise is the main query but her trajectory suggests she's ready.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · Zac Lloyd

Lord Penman is a progressive 4yo with the highest win rate in the field. His last start Rosehill 1400m win on Good 4 is the ideal lead-in, and the step to 1500m looks manageable given his NZ 1500m win. The class rise from BM100 to Group 2 is the key question, but his Group 3 2nd at Randwick (1300m) showed he can compete at black-type level. Bottom weight of 53kg helps offset the class jump. The very fast tempo may test him if he settles on pace.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · Tommy Berry

Globe is the class horse of the race as a Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner, but several concerns temper enthusiasm. He's first up after 154 days from barrier 11 carrying top weight of 59kg at a track he's never raced at.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.00 · Tim Clark

The class rise from BM78 is a concern but his trajectory suggests he's ready. The major negative is barrier 15 which will force him wide at Rosehill 1400m. If the very fast tempo creates a genuine staying test, his closing ability could overcome the draw, but it's a risk.