Morphettville tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.00 · Ben Melham

Smother sets up well today with a strong barrier, top jockey booking in Ben Melham (23% at track), and consistent placing form. The Hickmott stable is firing and the gelding's tactical speed should see him land in the favourable on-pace position the Morphettville bias rewards.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Jason Holder

Rousing Refrain draws the rails which is a major positive at on-speed-favoured Morphettville. The 3yo improver profile, Jason Holder booking, and ideal map make him a genuine each-way chance. Concerns center on his 0-from-5 soft track record and class rise.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · Daniel Stackhouse

The 6yo has a solid soft track record (4 wins from 14), draws ideally in barrier 2 for the on-speed bias, and drops 5kg from his last run. Daniel Stackhouse is in form and the gelding has won at 1800m.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.00 · Connor Murtagh

Outstanding second-up record (2:2-0-0) is the standout statistic. Has won twice at Morphettville and brings strong on-speed pattern that suits this track's bias. Connor Murtagh has won on him before.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Luke Cartwright

Won his most recent completed run on Soft 5 at Pakenham and boasts a 2-from-4 soft track record. Likely on-pace runner suits the strong Morphettville on-speed bias.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

The combination strikes at 43%, gear changes go on for a fresh return, and barrier 4 gives tactical options. Risk attached to first-up after 219 days but classy connections demand respect.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.50 · Luke Currie

Currie engaged is a positive intent signal. The concern is barrier 9 and a likely midfield/back settle against an on-speed track bias, but if the predicted Very Fast tempo materialises, his finishing kick becomes a weapon.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.20 · Zac Lloyd

Tom Charlton has freshened her appropriately and Zac Lloyd has prior association. Distance up to 2033m suits her finishing pattern, and Soft 6 is within her comfort zone (3 placings from 4 soft starts). Winkers first-time may sharpen focus. Profile fits a Listed staying race against this depth.

Our price $7.00 · SP $13.00 · Todd Pannell

The Hawkes stable have her primed and Pannell knows the track well (15 wins/150).

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.50 · Zac Lloyd

However, she's a likely backmarker which is the wrong profile for Morphettville's strong on-pace bias. Her Group 1 run last start was below expectation. Justifying favouritism on form, but the track bias and likely settling position give pause - hence ranked third rather than top. Worth including for safety in exotics.

Our price $11.00 · SP $11.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

She's the only runner with proven Listed-level staying form (placed at 2020m and 2100m at black-type level) and the 2546m trip should bring out the best in her. While the wide gate and likely back-half settling position are negatives at Morphettville, the field is full of horses stepping up dramatically in trip and class.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.00 · Ben Melham

Scheelite has the strongest class credentials with a Group 3 win at Flemington this preparation. Barrier 1 is gold on a track favouring on-speed runners and Ben Melham boasts a 23% strike rate at Morphettville. Last start was a let-down but the inside draw and quick backup point to improvement.

Our price $9.00 · SP $8.50 · Chad Schofield

Deakin returns from a long spell as a quality stayer with Listed wins last preparation and competitive Group 1 runs. The Stokes stable is well-suited to first-up assignments with such a horse. Concerns are the 203-day layoff, modest first-up record, and wide barrier.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

Bossy Nic brings the most reliable Group-class form profile in the race. Distance record of 18:4-3-3 is outstanding, recent 3rd in a strong Caulfield Bench 100 and 2nd in Open at Flemington shows she's at peak. Barrier 5 allows a midfield settle ideal for Morphettville's on-speed bias. Soft track form (3 wins from 8) is a positive. Stackhouse in red-hot form.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.00 · Harry Grace

Aviatress's first-up record (4:3-0-1) and track record (8:3-0-2) are major positives. Her Listed win at Caulfield and 2nd in G3 by a nose during last prep show genuine black-type ability. The Jolly stable produces fresh winners. Barrier 8 and the Grace booking are mild concerns, but soft track suitability (4:2-0-1) and proven Morphettville aptitude make her a strong each-way play.

Our price $20.00 · SP $61.00 · Teagan Voorham

Karavas has an outstanding Morphettville track-and-distance record (5:1-2-0 with 2 placings) and soft track record of 4:2-1-0. Last run was poor but she returns to her preferred track on a soft surface.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Zac Lloyd

Zac Lloyd retains and knows the horse. Main risk is the on-speed track bias, but her finishing burst was strong enough last start to overcome it.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.50 · Luke Currie

The 3yo profile suggests upside despite the class rise. Barrier 15 is a concern given the on-speed bias, but his closing speed at this track is proven. Strong each-way claim.

Our price $9.00 · SP $10.00 · Todd Pannell

Barrier 4 with Pannell allows a forward midfield position which suits the on-speed bias. Limited winning record is a concern but consistent placegetter at the trip. Soft track record needs improvement but he handles the surface adequately. Solid each-way prospect.

Our price $11.00 · SP $9.50 · William Pike

Strong soft track record (9:3-0-0) suits today's Soft 6 perfectly. 50% place rate across his career stands out. Last two NSW Class 5 efforts were poor but earlier form against BM68-78 in NSW is well above this grade.