Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 15 May 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Clear form stand-out in maiden with 2 starts including Flemington 3rd on soft and first-up record 1:0-0-1. McEvoy stable excels with young horses dropping to maiden. Recent Caulfield Heath trial win. Barrier 7 workable at Pakenham.
Barrier 6 perfect for Pakenham's first-half bias. Freedman stable reliable first-up. Strong place chance in moderate tempo.
Williams booking major upgrade for Busuttin/Young debutant. Barrier 5 suits Pakenham on-pace bias.
Hayes stable + Currie (13% combo) strong signals. Light 56kg helps.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Obambulate | 5 | Craig Williams | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 1 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 7 | Jamie Mott | T & C McEvoy | 58kg | $3.20 |
| 3rd | 2 | Grifter | 8 | Thomas Stockdale | C Maher | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Lady Of Pompeii | 2 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Mongol Heer | 4 | Logan Bates | M W Walker | 58kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Terracotta Warrior | 9 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Oxford Street | 6 | Damien Thornton | A & S Freedman | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Sparkle Time | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Celestial Honor | 10 | Jake Noonan | Dean Williams | 56kg | $7.50 |
| 10th | 11 | Tsuki | 3 | Jye McNeil | E & D Browne | 56kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Hoffstadt | 11 | Adam Mc Cabe | Angus Townley | 58kg |
Tassorting tops form assessment with consistent recent placings (23522x2), 67% place rate and high soft track suitability (1:0-1-0 on soft). Second up from spell aligns with preparation patterns. Maps midfield in fast tempo, ideal for Pakenham's first-half bias. Best pure form horse.
Bolting Blue fresh off Pakenham 2nd (1200m), barrier 6 suits inside/middle draw advantage. Likely leader in fast tempo race, matching track's on-pace lean despite neutral bias data. Fitness from recent prep edges first-uppers.
Wyandra offers strong place form (63% rate) and local Pakenham record (3:0-1-1). Barrier 1 positions perfectly as likely leader on position-driven track. Soft form excellent (4:0-3-0), recent runs consistent.
Barrier 5 maps midfield perfectly for track bias. Soft record 2:0-0-1, first-up stats positive.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Bolting Blue | 6 | Logan Bates | R D Griffiths | 59.5kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 10 | Model Gigi | 2 | Jye McNeil | John McArdle | 55kg | $15.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Fehmarn | 9 | Remi Tremsal | Ms R Waymouth | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Bold Secret | 7 | Beau Mertens | P Stokes | 59.5kg | $1.65 |
| 5th | 6 | Tassorting | 8 | Jamie Mott | Jerome Hunter | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Truly Icconic | 4 | Melea Castle | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Paramount Plus | 5 | Damien Thornton | G Eurell | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Swift Endorsement | 10 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Wyandra | 1 | Luke Cartwright | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Privateer | 3 | Craig Newitt | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 57.5kg |
Improving trend and soft suitability outweigh barrier 8 in fast tempo favouring midfielders.
Edges others in map despite unknowns.
Track/distance place, recent fitness, and soft/heavy exposure (3rd H8) strong. Barrier 7 manageable for midfield; form edges value rivals despite no win.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Salaria | 8 | Alexander Rae | 57kg | $2.20 | |
| 2nd | 8 | Superior Dame | 5 | Luke Nolen | R D Griffiths | 57kg | $3.10 |
| 3rd | 2 | Frozen Princess | 1 | Dakotah Keane | Nathan Dunn | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Thankful Smile | 2 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Lady Of Lubeck | 10 | Damien Thornton | Simon Zahra | 57kg | $20.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Macca's Angel | 7 | Beau Mertens | P Stokes | 57kg | $6.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Blue Parrot | 6 | Daniel Stackhouse | Brian McGrath | 57kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Mariner Miss | 9 | Neil Farley | Henry Dwyer | 57kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Torzannie | 3 | Melea Castle | Chris Diplock | 57kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Le Notre | 4 | Craig Newitt | S B Laming | 57kg |
Barrier 1 perfect for forward position on position-driven Pakenham Soft 5. Best suited despite no win, form trumps unraced peers. Track bias favours on-pace settling.
Significant class drop from Open to Maiden, light 55.5kg helps. Mott retains ride, can midfield despite barrier 8. Soft track unproven but good form on Good 4. Strong value threat in moderate maiden.
Soft record 3:0-0-2 suits conditions, barrier 5 midfield ideal for Pakenham bias. Reliable place chance despite no win, edges unraced types on pure form.
Debutant with ideal barrier 3 for Pakenham on-pace bias, likely forward settling. Absence of data not penalised per rules; proxy strong via draw/map. Value overlay if brings early speed in weak maiden.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Let Lily Loose | 1 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $1.95 |
| 2nd | 1 | Enchanted Lass | 5 | Daniel Stackhouse | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Loft Vega | 3 | Alexander Rae | 58kg | $3.60 | |
| 4th | 4 | Jezebel Jenni | 7 | Jett Stanley | M W Walker | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Sayalero | 8 | Jamie Mott | John McArdle | 55.5kg | $4.80 |
| 6th | 7 | Lomenie | 4 | Sheridan Clarke | D Binaisse | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Ivy Princess | 6 | R J Meunier | 58kg | $51.00 | |
| 8th | 2 | Gypsy Moon | 2 | Teodore Nugent | I M Pankhurst | 58kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Mardyke | 7 | Edward Cummings | 58kg |
Barrier 6 ideal for midfield map in moderate-fast tempo suiting Pakenham's position bias. Soft 5 handles (3 wins from 14). Strong win chance.
Second-up from spell with trainer's strong prep pattern.
Recent placings in BM70 show fitness, consistent 40% place rate.
Barrier 3 ideal for Pakenham forward bias, slight class drop, gear tweaks. Soft query but pace can offset. High-value roughy if maps handy.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Aristonous | 6 | Luke Cartwright | Trent Edmonds | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 7 | Winston | 8 | Jamie Mott | John McArdle | 59kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Cyclone Harmony | 2 | Olivia East | Peter Gelagotis | 55.5kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Mahers Landing | 13 | Daniel Stackhouse | G M Begg | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 12 | Sparkle Link | 4 | Damien Thornton | G Eurell | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Giggenbach | 10 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 1 | All So Clear | 7 | Dakotah Keane | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Royal Optimism | 5 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Genrichero | 11 | M M Laurie | 61kg | $18.00 | |
| 10th | 4 | Callmeanicon | 3 | Teodore Nugent | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 11th | 3 | Patsy's Star | 9 | Neil Farley | M Sell | 60kg | $14.00 |
| 12th | 10 | Birdie Time | 1 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Angel Feet | 12 | Fred W Kersley | C J Waller | 57kg |
Barrier 5 suits midfield settling in fast tempo on position-driven track. Soft 5 OK (5:1-0-1). Clear top pick despite jockey change.
Light weight, dropping class, suits fast tempo from handy spot. Soft record solid. Excellent jockey combo.
Second-up suits (stats OK). Lacks soft exposure but trainer/jockey combo positive.
Barrier 1 perfect for Pakenham on-speed bias, track record 4:2-0-0 including recent soft/heavy wins. Stackhouse retains (50% strike). Fast tempo favours leader. Soft suits (7:1-1-1).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Maldini | 11 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 60.5kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Shidan | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Adele Garraway | 59.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 11 | Noble Work | 2 | Logan Bates | Michael Trotter | 58kg | $4.40 |
| 4th | 7 | Lady Sadler | 9 | Dakotah Keane | C W McDonald | 57kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Garnacho | 4 | Jye McNeil | E & D Browne | 58kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Realika | 8 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 57.5kg | $20.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Factcheck | 5 | Olivia East | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59kg | $2.40 |
| 8th | 2 | Call Him Iggy | 7 | Jake Noonan | Mathew Smerdon | 61.5kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Dubai Watch | 3 | Billy Egan | Vincent Hall | 61kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Sunlit Serenade | 10 | Harry Coffey | T & C McEvoy | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Glenfinnan | 12 | Luke Cartwright | Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor | 60kg | |
| Scr | 9 | The Mansman | 6 | Jamie Mott | Peter Gelagotis | 58.5kg |
Second up from spell aligns with 2:1-0-1 record. Barrier 4 perfect for Pakenham's first-half bias and fast tempo. Freedman/Mott combo reliable despite no prior winning association.
Perfect 3:1-1-1 at track/distance, barrier 2 suits leader bias. Soft 5 record solid (12:3-2-1). Fast tempo will suit forward settling. Clear class drop.
Perfect first up record 3:2-0-0, won at Pakenham previously. Fast tempo suits closing style despite wide draw. Solid each-way value.
Soft track proven (2:1-0-0). Barrier 10 workable with forward map. Fast tempo suits.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Legio Ten | 2 | Ryan Houston | Reece Goodwin | 62kg | $6.50 |
| 2nd | 6 | Yes I Know | 4 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 60kg | $2.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Bronte Beach | 11 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Seethru | 7 | Zac Moore | Josh Cartwright | 57kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 7 | Oraqua | 9 | Luke Nolen | Mitchell Freedman | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Masterful | 16 | Caitlin Hollowood | E Jusufovic | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 4 | New Sovereign | 10 | Olivia East | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Surreal I Am | 5 | Daniel Stackhouse | John McArdle | 61.5kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Al Prancer | 6 | Billy Egan | K & K Keys | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Time Bandit | 3 | Fred W Kersley | J L Grob | 58.5kg | $61.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Hot Blue | 13 | Luke Currie | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 12th | 9 | Blakmax | 1 | Jade Da Rose | Shawn Mathrick | 59kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Savamoon | 8 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Scalable | 12 | Jye McNeil | E & D Browne | 56kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Shadashi | 15 | Craig Newitt | Edward Cummings | 56kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Mamuno | 14 | C I Brown | 57.5kg |
Olivia Rose stands out on pure form with consistent recent placings including strong Pakenham T/D record (2:1-1-0). Barrier 2 perfect for forward settling on position-driven track with on-pace bias. Very fast tempo favours handy runners over backmarkers.
Jewel Bay maps ideally from barrier 3 to hold midfield position crucial at Pakenham where winners dominate first half turning for home. Recent Cranbourne win on soft 6, overall soft record excellent (8:3-1-1). Track record solid (3:0-2-0). Very fast tempo suits strong finishers.
Reina Isabella has outstanding Pakenham record (3:2-1-0 including T/D win). First up stats solid (3:1-1-0), barrier 6 perfect for handy settling. Soft track exposure positive. Very fast tempo may suit if can find fence.
Very fast tempo suits closing speed but barrier 12 major risk on position track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Zunna | 12 | Beau Mertens | P Stokes | 58.5kg | $6.50 |
| 2nd | 13 | Volatile | 14 | Luke Cartwright | Ms L Tolson & Ms L Proctor | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Double Pi | 11 | Luke Nolen | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56.5kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Mongolian Gobi | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Peter Gelagotis | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Olivia Rose | 2 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 56kg | $3.70 |
| 6th | 15 | Buzitup | 5 | Neil Farley | S J Campbell | 58.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Tan Tat Delight | 15 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 57kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 5 | Jewel Bay | 3 | Jamie Mott | Andrea Leek | 59.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Dollar Shot | 13 | Thomas Stockdale | Ms D Nardino | 62.5kg | $12.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Prestige Ole | 4 | Craig Newitt | Matt Jenkins | 59.5kg | $71.00 |
| 11th | 4 | Empressive Enuff | 10 | Teodore Nugent | D Binaisse | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 12th | 9 | Reina Isabella | 6 | Olivia East | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 55.5kg | $4.20 |
| Scr | 2 | Top Calibre | 10 | Harry Coffey | Lloyd Kennewell | 62kg | |
| Scr | 3 | El Pibe De Oro | 8 | Nick Ryan | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Magick Media | 7 | Damien Thornton | G Eurell | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Flying From Above | 9 | Declan Bates | Edward Cummings | 58kg |
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