Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 22 May 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Jenni Poppins is the most likely winner. Track bias strongly favours first-half runners and barrier 1 ensures ideal map in moderate-fast tempo. Second-up record limited but first-up was solid. Clear top pick in this maiden.
Forward Ho represents the best of the rest. Maps to settle in the likely midfield/on-pace group which is ideal given the track's emphasis on 400m position. While lacking a win, the progressive nature and ability to handle Soft 6 conditions make this a strong quinella chance behind the top pick.
As a first-up runner from a spell, the proxy evaluation (trainer profile, jockey, pedigree) is positive. Barrier 6 is workable for the required first-half positioning at Pakenham.
Despite a declining trend, this represents a significant class drop into a BM58-equivalent maiden with compressed weights. Le Notre offers genuine overlay potential if it can find a midfield spot.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Le Notre | 7 | Jamie Mott | S B Laming | 58kg | $9.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Jenni Poppins | 1 | Beau Mertens | Lloyd Kennewell | 58kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Circus Circus | 9 | Billy Egan | G M Begg | 58kg | $2.30 |
| 4th | 9 | Waggish | 6 | Luke Currie | Clayton Douglas | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Forward Ho | 5 | Luke Nolen | J F Moloney | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Karumba Girl | 2 | Jackie Beriman | Dale Short | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Miss Gossip Girl | 3 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 58kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Sparkling Award | 8 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 58kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 7 | Oh So Vein | 4 | Sheridan Clarke | Jim Cerchi Jnr | 58kg |
Race For Rule has the strongest recent form in this maiden with back-to-back placings, including a narrow second at 1400m on heavy ground just 11 days ago.
My Bonnie Lassie showed good fight to place at Pakenham on heavy ground last start and is well-placed second-up with a significant weight drop. The fast tempo should allow it to settle midfield and run on, aligning with the track's preference for first-half runners at the 400m.
Expanding Power has shown promise with a heavy track placing and is better placed second-up from a spell. The fast tempo at Pakenham should suit its settling pattern, and the inside barrier helps in a track that favours forward runners. Solid each-way chance in this maiden.
The track bias strongly favours such runners at the 400m. Significant overlay given its improving profile and course familiarity in this provincial maiden.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Race For Rule | 8 | Patrick Moloney | R D Griffiths | 56kg | $2.05 |
| 2nd | 4 | Rowdy Express | 1 | Ben Allen | K & K Keys | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Expanding Power | 6 | Luke Currie | E Jusufovic | 56kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Fear The Impact | 4 | Jason Maskiell | Gavin Bedggood | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Urban Creed | 11 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 58kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Night Guard | 3 | Beau Mertens | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 7th | 8 | My Bonnie Lassie | 9 | Bailey Kinninmont | Jerome Hunter | 53kg | $17.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Congress Of Vienna | 5 | Melea Castle | Marcus Fahler | 56kg | $151.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Transmitting | 2 | Billy Egan | Lloyd Kennewell | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Patriot Wolf | 10 | Luke Nolen | Glen Thompson | 58kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 10 | Sweet Champagne | 7 | Remi Tremsal | Ms M Wells | 56kg |
That run followed a respectable 6th at Sale. The speed map suggests it can land in the first half despite the wide draw, aligning perfectly with Pakenham's first-half bias on a Soft 6.
Barrier 1 is ideal for the track's on-pace bias and the class drop is a positive. However, lack of Soft track experience and only one public run limit confidence compared to Tagalaon's proven course form. Still a major player.
Who'llstoplorraine has shown promise with a 2nd on Heavy ground at Pakenham over 1400m and consistent placings. The inside barrier is a major asset given the track's inside-to-first-half bias on Soft tracks. Likely to settle handy in a moderate-fast tempo which suits the Pakenham 400m profile.
While the wide draw is a negative given the track's strong inside and on-pace bias, its proven ability at the distance and on Soft tracks offers upside.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Outdrive | 3 | Jamie Mott | Kelvin Southey | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 6 | Tagalaon | 12 | Ben Allen | K & K Keys | 59.5kg | $4.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Truth Seeker | 1 | Beau Mertens | Lloyd Kennewell | 59.5kg | $3.70 |
| 4th | 10 | Polar Perspective | 5 | Molly Bourke | M C Kent | 57.5kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Brighthill | 4 | Jason Maskiell | Jack Laing | 59.5kg | $4.60 |
| 6th | 2 | Colour Circle | 11 | Jackie Beriman | Brian McGrath | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Steal Away | 8 | Patrick Moloney | R D Griffiths | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Greytest Showman | 7 | Bailey Kinninmont | Luke Oliver | 56.5kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Composite Action | 13 | Yoko Ota | Yoko Ota | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Hellacious | 10 | Dylan Dunn | Luke Oliver | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Lady Tenshi | 6 | Julius Sandhu | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Tennessee Link | 9 | Billy Egan | G Eurell | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Who'llstoplorraine | 2 | Melea Castle | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 57.5kg |
Hey Bella presents as the most likely winner. Strong 5:2-1-2 track record and 3:2-0-1 at track/distance. Suits the first-half bias at Pakenham on Soft 6 with likely on-pace run. Form trend is consistent with upward trajectory at this trip.
There Were Roses is the clear second pick. Proven on Soft with forward mapping suiting the fast tempo and Pakenham's first-half bias. Recent Caulfield Heath run shows fitness.
Dominant Wangaratta maiden win on Soft shows ability, and Payne stable is typically well-prepared. Barrier 1 and jockey/trainer intent are positives for the first-half bias. Stronger exposed form in Hey Bella and There Were Roses outweighs the unknown. Still warrants respect given stable record.
Consistent form with 5:2-0-1 at 1600m and strong Soft record (2:2-1-1). Excellent each-way overlay in a race favouring first-half runners.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Pearl King | 12 | Luke Nolen | Andrea Leek | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | There Were Roses | 3 | Jamie Mott | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | $4.60 |
| 3rd | 5 | She's Impeccable | 8 | Emily Pozman | Shane Jackson | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 4 | Hey Bella | 6 | Brittany Button | Luke Oliver | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Brillantezza | 1 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 58.5kg | $3.30 |
| 6th | 3 | Whistle Down | 11 | Bailey Kinninmont | Symon Wilde | 58kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Thunder Zeus | 4 | Ben Allen | Peter Gelagotis | 57kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Preservator | 13 | Jason Maskiell | K J Fythe | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Grand Sage | 10 | Ruby Lamont | R C Manning | 54.5kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Super Paradise | 7 | Zac Moore | Andrew Dale | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 11th | 13 | Sweet Liaison | 5 | Bree Temple | N J Harnett | 51kg | $201.00 |
| 12th | 1 | Korobeiniki | 9 | Caitlin Hollowood | N J Harnett | 58kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Annabelle Sunshine | 2 | Jackie Beriman | Michael Trotter | 56kg |
Belcony stands out as the most likely winner. Has excellent 5:2-2-0 record at Pakenham 1400m and drops in class. Track profile strongly favours first-half runners and she maps ideally from barrier 6 in a fast tempo. Recent form shows upward trajectory with three consecutive placings.
White Hot Mama is a progressive 3YO filly with strong wet track stats (1-1-0 on soft). Recent Cranbourne BM62 win followed maiden success. Suited to fast tempo as she can settle handy. While rising in class, her upward trajectory, soft track affinity and tactical speed align well with Pakenham's first-half bias. Second-up record is sound. Represents strong each-way chance behind the top pick.
Sweet Jasmine brings strong wet track credentials (2-0-0 heavy, 1-3-0 soft) into this. Dropping in class from BM74/78 attempts and second-up from spell where stable can improve. Despite wide draw and jockey form, her class edge, proven ability on Soft 6 and recent peak make her a genuine contender in this provincial BM62.
Maps perfectly to utilise Pakenham's first-half bias from a handy position despite wide gate. Progressive 3YO with light weight, strong recent form and suitable conditions.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | White Hot Mama | 9 | Dakotah Keane | C W McDonald | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Jetsetter Jack | 5 | Molly Bourke | Gavin Bedggood | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Victory Tune | 2 | Logan Bates | R D Griffiths | 61kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Savamoon | 7 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 1 | Sweet Jasmine | 3 | Caitlin Hollowood | Luke Oliver | 61.5kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Sunset Beauty | 1 | Ruby Lamont | T Kilgower | 52kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Knee Deep | 4 | Brittany Button | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Belcony | 6 | Luke Cartwright | Reece Goodwin | 59.5kg | $3.10 |
| 9th | 11 | King Incanto | 11 | Zac Moore | Andrew Dale | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Perfuse | 10 | Sam Kennedy | Patrick Payne | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 2 | Real Alliance | 8 | Bailey Kinninmont | Luke Oliver | 59kg | $19.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Heiwana Tamashi | 12 | Dylan Dean | J F Moloney | 57kg |
Aristonous is the most likely winner. His Pakenham record and soft-track prowess outweigh the class rise. Aristonous represents the clearest form-based edge.
His inside draw aligns with the track's mild inside bias and on-pace preference. However, the lack of a win at 2000m and zero second-up success slightly tempers his win chance behind Aristonous, though he remains a high-probability place chance.
My Roca Fella brings strong track familiarity after winning here over 2000m three weeks ago. His on-pace style suits the moderate-fast tempo and Pakenham's first-half bias perfectly. While the class rise is a query, his recent consistency and weight drop from that last win make him a genuine threat for the placings in a race where forward position is paramount.
Her recent Pakenham win on Heavy 8 (carrying 62kg) and strong second-up record align perfectly with today's Soft 6 conditions and staying trip. Strong each-way overlay in a race favouring horses with local wet form.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | My Roca Fella | 1 | Luke Currie | John McArdle | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Aristonous | 3 | Luke Cartwright | Trent Edmonds | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Amleto | 2 | John Allen | C Maher | 57kg | $2.45 |
| 4th | 9 | Oak Beach | 9 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 55.5kg | $3.70 |
| 5th | 10 | Just Jenni | 5 | Beau Mertens | Lloyd Kennewell | 55kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 7 | Rasp | 6 | Jason Maskiell | Gavin Bedggood | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Jaykayann | 4 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 59.5kg | $15.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Shultzy | 8 | Adam Mc Cabe | Pat Cannon | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Lightening Mann | 7 | Jake Noonan | C Maher | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Shahzad | 11 | Bree Temple | E & D Browne | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 2 | Ashana | 10 | Ben Allen | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59kg | $91.00 |
Stellar Mofeed stands out after completing Phase 1 form assessment. Suits the predicted fast tempo and first-half positioning bias at Pakenham (on-pace/on-speed favoured). Class drop from recent BM66-BM74 runs is ideal. Clear top pick on pure form.
Miss Deceiver completes the top 3. Connections (C Maher/Ben Allen) add intent. While still lightly raced, the improving pattern and class rise is factored but offset by stable strength.
Happy Link ranks second on form. First-up record is respectable and trainer typically has them ready. Suits the track's first-half bias and fast tempo.
Tillya Tepe is clear value.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Chocolate Box | 5 | Jamie Mott | Ms W Kelly | 60kg | $2.45 |
| 2nd | 5 | Stellar Mofeed | 7 | Jake Noonan | K L Corstens | 60kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 9 | Miss Deceiver | 6 | Ben Allen | C Maher | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 8 | Rose Sangria | 8 | Jade Da Rose | D C Harrison | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Power Cable | 1 | Bailey Kinninmont | Luke Oliver | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Tillya Tepe | 10 | Nathan Punch | R D Griffiths | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 7th | 11 | Night Eruption | 12 | Ruby Lamont | Paul Worthington | 52kg | $61.00 |
| 8th | 12 | Flying D'amore | 4 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Electric Belle | 3 | Jason Maskiell | Jack Laing | 64.5kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Happy Link | 2 | Billy Egan | G Eurell | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Arizona Luck | 11 | Luke Currie | Symon Wilde | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Queen Beira | 9 | Olivia East | Reece Goodwin | 55.5kg |
She Daresthe Devil profiles best in this Restricted 62. Class drop from recent BM62s plus 4kg claim creates edge over exposed rivals.
Off Their Perch is a key contender. First-up record (1-0-1) and trainer's excellent fresh strike rate add confidence. Maps to settle midfield-forward from barrier 7 in fast tempo, suiting Pakenham's on-pace bias. While rising sharply in class, upward trajectory and connections outweigh negatives.
Godtfred Kirk is well-placed dropping in class from tougher races. First-up from 88 days but trainer typically has them ready; barrier 5 ideal for Pakenham first-half bias in fast tempo.
Despite wide draw, has speed to slot into first half which is essential at Pakenham on Soft 6 with fast tempo. Record shows ability on wet (0-0-0 on Heavy but competitive).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Next Step Iowa | 8 | Jake Noonan | M M Laurie | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Godtfred Kirk | 5 | Jamie Mott | Reece Goodwin | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Off Their Perch | 7 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 58kg | $3.40 |
| 4th | 9 | She Daresthe Devil | 4 | Liana Wood | Kasey Besanko | 54kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Bark | 10 | Ben Allen | J W Price | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 6 | Intimeofneed | 1 | Molly Bourke | Dennis Julius | 58kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Firerated | 3 | Beau Mertens | Alexander Rae | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 8th | 12 | Supamano | 6 | Nathan Punch | P Gorman | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Three Musketeers | 9 | Teodore Nugent | Andrew Dale | 59kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Flash 'n' Dash | 7 | Joe Bowditch | Gavin Bedggood | 60kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Our Yonglee | 2 | Luke Currie | C I Brown | 58kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Liberty Rae | 10 | Cameron Thompson | 56.5kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.