Sorell Eagles presents as the most reliable winning chance based on recent form trajectory and track/distance suitability. While stepping up to 1600m for the first time, the slow predicted tempo and proven stamina breeding (Alpine Eagle sire) suggest the distance extension is manageable.
Tasmania · Sunday 21 June 2026
Hobart tips and results
Our top pick won 0 of 9 races at Hobart. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Ron Banks Life Member Mdn Plate
Timely Needs offers strong each-way value based on consistent recent form and proven Hobart/Soft credentials. Three consecutive placings at this track (5-4-2) demonstrate current fitness and surface suitability, with the 2nd placing over 1100m two starts back particularly relevant. The Darmanin/Gandy combination (11% strike rate) and Darmanin's solid Hobart record (12%) provide confidence in connections. However, the wide barrier (9) is a significant negative at this tight circuit where outside draws (9-12) win only 7% versus 12% for inside gates. The step to 1600m is also untested, though the slow predicted tempo may assist.
Light Work presents as a value third selection with improving synthetic form and positive stable intent signals. The gear change (visors off first time) combined with the strong Kennedy/Blacker partnership (23% strike rate) suggests connections believe she can improve on turf. The lightest weight (55kg) and good barrier (4) are significant advantages at Hobart where position is critical. However, the reliance on synthetic form (5 of 10 starts) and modest Soft turf record (3:0-0-1) are concerns. The step to 1600m is also untested, though the slow tempo may assist.
The good barrier (5) and likely slow tempo suit the midfield settling pattern. The topweight (58.5kg) and recent synthetic form also temper enthusiasm.
- 1st7Light WorkSam Kennedy$5.50
- 2nd3Called ThroughHayley Mc Carthy$3.40
- 3rd6Timely NeedsAnthony Darmanin$3.20
- 4th1Alla RusticaKirra-Lee Lane$17.00
Full result · 9 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Light Work | 4 | Sam Kennedy | J K Blacker | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Called Through | 5 | Hayley Mc Carthy | Ms A Fulton | 58.5kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 6 | Timely Needs | 9 | Anthony Darmanin | S Gandy | 58.5kg | $3.20 |
| 4th | 1 | Alla Rustica | 3 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Ms L Gaffney | 55.5kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Sorell Eagles | 2 | Codi Jordan | J F Luttrell | 58.5kg | $3.80 |
| 6th | 2 | Alpine Drift | 6 | Bree Temple | Sigrid Carr | 55.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Crowned Beau | 1 | Troy Baker | Sigrid Carr | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Littlemissallsorts | 8 | Justin W Stanley | R Seymour | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Strip'n'tough | 7 | Bulent Muhcu | Bradley Franklin | 56.5kg | $15.00 |
Terry Clayton Life Member Mdn Plate
Don Turboas presents as the most reliable winning chance despite maiden status. Second-up after a strong fresh placing, the gelding maps to settle in the box seat and control the race.
The half-length second at this track 14 days ago, combined with extensive trial preparation, suggests readiness to break through. However, barrier 10 is problematic at Hobart where inside-to-middle draws dominate. The gelding must overcome the wide gate and settle closer than typical maiden pattern. Strong each-way value given the upside, but the draw prevents outright favouritism over Don Turboas.
Gold Tianna is the ultimate maiden bridesmaid with three consecutive seconds, but the pattern suggests placement ability rather than winning capacity. The gelding's soft-track form and Hobart record are strong, but barrier 9 and the moderate tempo create tactical concerns. Needs to settle closer than recent pattern to threaten, and the 1200m distance drop may not suit the staying-bred Highland Reel type. Solid each-way chance but lacks the tactical edge of the top two selections.
Vinraam represents speculative value based on pedigree, connections, and gear changes rather than proven form. The I Am Invincible sire line excels at 1200m, and the Darmanin/McShane 25% strike rate is compelling. However, first-up from a long spell with barrier 11 creates significant tactical concerns. If the gelding can overcome the wide draw and show natural early speed, the class could emerge. High-risk, high-reward proposition for small-stake punters seeking overs.
- 1st4Fuel On The FireCodi Jordan$15.00
- 2nd2Don TurboasErica Byrne Burke$1.75
- 3rd10VinraamAnthony Darmanin$8.50
- 4th5Gold ArmourTroy Baker$5.50
Full result · 10 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Fuel On The Fire | 11 | Codi Jordan | S Gandy | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Don Turboas | 1 | Erica Byrne Burke | Jessie Bazan | 58.5kg | $1.75 |
| 3rd | 10 | Vinraam | 10 | Anthony Darmanin | Brendan McShane | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 5 | Gold Armour | 9 | Troy Baker | J K Blacker | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 6 | Gold Tianna | 8 | Bulent Muhcu | R Seymour | 58.5kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Sedna | 5 | Justin W Stanley | Sigrid Carr | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Honest Warrior | 3 | Kelvin Sanderson | K P Hamilton | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 13 | Sunrise At Kirra | 4 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Ms R Hall | 53.5kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Empress Angel | 6 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Enuff Dosh | 7 | Sheridan Clarke | J L Keys | 58.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Bruny Boy | 1 | Jessie Bazan | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Kimba | 2 | Christopher Pang | Bradley Franklin | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Stollaway Ned | 7 | Lauryn Bingley | J K Blacker | 58.5kg |
Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Mdn Plate
Vabuiagi presents as the most reliable winning chance based on recent form and race setup. Second-up record is solid, and the inside barrier (1) is a significant advantage at tight Hobart, allowing her to settle on-pace and be positioned top-three at the 400m - the key winning pattern here. The Ulucinar/Gandy combination has a 15% strike rate, and while she's yet to win, the progression is clear.
The Cotton stable has prepared her well with two trials, and the gear change (nose roll off) suggests they're looking for improvement. Her form was trending upward (9-5-6) before the spell, and barrier 8 allows her to settle in the on-pace positions that dominate at Hobart. Byrne Burke's 16% strike rate at the track is a positive. While first-up record is unproven, the trial form is compelling.
Her first-up record includes a placing, and she's shown consistency with soft track form. The 100-day break is a concern, but her form pattern suggests she rarely finishes far back. Barrier 9 is wide but manageable for a midfield settling position. Temple's 50% strike rate at Hobart (albeit limited sample) is encouraging.
The 604-day spell is a major concern, but the inside barrier (2) is crucial at Hobart and allows her to settle on-pace where winners come from. The Catania/Keys combination has a 7% strike rate, and the jockey's 12% strike rate at Hobart suggests she can navigate the tight circuit. While the extreme spell and lack of wins are negatives, the gear change and barrier draw create an upset scenario.
- 1st2Alpine RubyLauryn Bingley$31.00
- 2nd9Up To ToriBree Temple$3.70
- 3rd10VabuiagiMehmet Ulucinar$9.00
- 4th4Frosty RugeHayley Mc Carthy$101.00
Full result · 12 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Alpine Ruby | 7 | Lauryn Bingley | J K Blacker | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Up To Tori | 9 | Bree Temple | Sigrid Carr | 53.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 10 | Vabuiagi | 1 | Mehmet Ulucinar | S Gandy | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Frosty Ruge | 12 | Hayley Mc Carthy | Barry Baker | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 12 | White Star Suzie | 11 | Troy Baker | Sigrid Carr | 56.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 8 | Thermal Miss | 8 | Erica Byrne Burke | Sarah Cotton | 56.5kg | $2.60 |
| 7th | 11 | Wheelewe | 4 | Sheridan Clarke | J L Keys | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Midway Point | 6 | Daniel Ganderton | Jessie Bazan | 58.5kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Tank Girl | 3 | Sam Kennedy | P A Preusker | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Tea With The Queen | 10 | Chloe Wells | J F Luttrell | 56.5kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 3 | Caffy | 5 | Anthony Darmanin | Bradley Franklin | 56.5kg | $19.00 |
| 12th | 5 | Poetic Light | 2 | Georgie Catania | J L Keys | 56.5kg | $14.00 |
EIS Property Hcp (C1)
Lawrenny Boys is the most reliable form runner in the race. He handles Soft ground exceptionally well (12 starts, 1 win, 4 seconds, 2 thirds) and has been in consistent form with placings in three of his last four starts, including a close third in this same class three weeks ago. Barrier 3 and the on-pace bias at Hobart suit him ideally.
Benefitsofmine has a consistent profile on Soft going with a win and two seconds from five starts. His recent form includes a good second at Kyneton two runs back in a Bench56, though he disappointed last start. The removal of the nose roll may help him settle better. He has enough class to be competitive and with Kelvin Sanderson aboard (16% at Hobart), he can feature in the placings.
Bella Chinkara has an excellent record over this track and distance, with one win and two seconds from four runs, and all placings have come on Soft ground. She has a good first-up record including a win, and she drops markedly in class from Group/Open company. The main concerns are the long spell and a jockey with a low overall strike rate.
Fruit Of De Vine ran an eye-catching second in this same class two weeks ago, beaten less than a length after making ground. She gets a huge weight advantage (51.5kg with claim) and a peach barrier 2 that should allow her to settle forward. She is still lightly raced and improving. Each-way value.
- 1st1BenefitsofmineKelvin Sanderson$5.50
- 2nd11Celestial GlowTroy Baker$26.00
- 3rd8Geegees MercedesAnthony Darmanin$11.00
- 4th12Golden Sweet HeartBree Temple$91.00
Full result · 12 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Benefitsofmine | 8 | Kelvin Sanderson | K P Hamilton | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 11 | Celestial Glow | 10 | Troy Baker | J K Blacker | 54kg | $26.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Geegees Mercedes | 9 | Anthony Darmanin | S Gandy | 55.5kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 12 | Golden Sweet Heart | 11 | Bree Temple | Ms L Gaffney | 51kg | $91.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Nandi Clan | 6 | Erica Byrne Burke | J L Keys | 56.5kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Fruit Of De Vine | 2 | Christopher Pang | Bronte Kent | 52kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 13 | Lady Fern | 13 | Kirra-Lee Lane | J K Blacker | 51kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Megalita | 4 | Codi Jordan | G J Stevenson | 59kg | $4.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Bella Chinkara | 7 | Hayley Mc Carthy | J K Blacker | 56kg | $8.50 |
| 10th | 4 | Lawrenny Boys | 3 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 56.5kg | $4.00 |
| 11th | 3 | Fierce 'n Fabulous | 1 | Lauryn Bingley | J K Blacker | 58kg | $8.50 |
| 12th | 5 | Beau Warrior | 5 | Chloe Wells | Andrew Moore | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Party Day | 7 | Jessie Bazan | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Outbush | 12 | Justin W Stanley | J F Luttrell | 55kg |
Carbine Club Winter Classic
Daytona Diva presents as the standout selection despite being first-up at 1390m. Her Hobart dominance (5 wins from 6 starts) and soft track proficiency (4 wins from 6) provide exceptional confidence. The Listed winner drops back to Open grade second-up, where she boasts a perfect 1:1-0-0 record. The slow tempo suits her tactical versatility, and barrier 6 allows her to settle in the critical top-3 at the 400m position that wins 17% at Hobart on Soft. While the distance rise is a query, her class and track mastery override this concern.
Taroona arrives in career-best form following a narrow victory at Devonport 7 days ago. Her distance credentials are solid (2 wins from 3 at 1350m+) and the barrier 2 draw is crucial in a slow-tempo race, allowing her to settle prominently and be positioned perfectly at the 400m. The Baker/Campbell combination is lethal (63% strike rate), and her synthetic dominance (3:3-0-0) suggests tactical versatility. The main concern is her poor Hobart record (0 wins from 3), but the class rise from Class 4 is offset by her progressive profile and ideal race setup.
Zambezi Blonde presents a mixed profile. His Hobart record (5:1-1-1) and soft track form (5:1-1-1) are positives, and the 28-day break since a disappointing 5th suggests freshness. The barrier 4 draw allows him to settle in the critical midfield position in a slow tempo. However, the distance rise to 1390m is a significant query—he's never won beyond 1200m and his last start at this track/distance saw him fade to 5th.
The barrier 1 draw is crucial in a slow-tempo race with no genuine leaders—he can control from the front and dictate terms. His soft track form (3:1-0-1) is proven, and the synthetic dominance (2:1-1-0) suggests tactical versatility. The main concerns are the distance rise to 1390m (unproven) and moderate Hobart record, but his progressive profile and race setup override these negatives.
- 1st5TaroonaTroy Baker$5.50
- 2nd4The Little BaySheridan Clarke$91.00
- 3rd3Daytona DivaKirra-Lee Lane$1.24
- 4th1Zambezi BlondeErica Byrne Burke$7.50
Full result · 6 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Taroona | 2 | Troy Baker | Barry Campbell | 56kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 4 | The Little Bay | 7 | Sheridan Clarke | T W Evans | 57kg | $91.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Daytona Diva | 6 | Kirra-Lee Lane | J K Blacker | 54kg | $1.24 |
| 4th | 1 | Zambezi Blonde | 4 | Erica Byrne Burke | J L Keys | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 2 | The Real Man | 1 | Codi Jordan | Liam Beamish | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Sh' Bourne Angel | 5 | Hayley Mc Carthy | S Gandy | 55kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Jedd's Jet | 3 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 53.5kg |
Raine & Horne Hcp (C2)
The inside barrier suits his forward racing pattern, and the established Jordan/Stevenson combination (23% strike rate) adds confidence. Class-suited returning to the level where he won last preparation, and the 4yo profile suggests continued improvement.
While the 1100m is untested, his racing pattern suggests he can adapt, and the inside-to-middle barrier (6) allows tactical flexibility. The 3kg claim from Temple is significant, bringing him down to 54.5kg, and his improving trajectory (recent form shows consistent placings) suggests he's racing into peak fitness. Not the most likely winner, but a genuine threat with strong place prospects.
The inside barrier (5) is crucial given the track bias favouring positions 1-6, and the Pang/Dargan combination (25% strike rate) adds confidence. However, her overall strike rate (6%) and inconsistent form pattern suggest she's not the most reliable, and the 1100m distance is slightly untested. Best suited as a place chance or saver in exotics, with upside if the race unfolds to suit her on-pace style.
The Soft 5 conditions suit (1-4-3 from 11 starts), and the gear changes (visors off, cross-over nose band on) suggest the stable is actively seeking improvement. While the wide barrier (11) is a concern on the tight Hobart circuit, her first-up pattern suggests she can overcome it.
- 1st7Wild NightsBulent Muhcu$21.00
- 2nd4VerhoevenErica Byrne Burke$10.00
- 3rd8HububbajahnBulent Muhcu$8.50
- 4th9Zulu FieldsChristopher Pang$8.00
Full result · 12 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Wild Nights | 9 | Bulent Muhcu | J K Blacker | 54.5kg | $21.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Verhoeven | 2 | Erica Byrne Burke | Sigrid Carr | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Hububbajahn | 11 | Bulent Muhcu | Brendan McShane | 54kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 9 | Zulu Fields | 5 | Christopher Pang | Patrick Dargan | 52kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Tribal Council | 6 | Bree Temple | Sarah Cotton | 54.5kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Royal Detective | 3 | Troy Baker | K P Hamilton | 55kg | $6.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Alpine Fury | 4 | Codi Jordan | G J Stevenson | 59kg | $3.50 |
| 8th | 13 | Rare Oro | 12 | Chloe Wells | J F Luttrell | 54kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Swinging It | 7 | Hayley Mc Carthy | Brendan McShane | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Sky Eagle | 10 | Catherine Van Munster | J K Blacker | 54kg | $61.00 |
| 11th | 10 | First Line | 1 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 52.5kg | $8.00 |
| 12th | 2 | Gems Eagle | 8 | Georgie Catania | J L Keys | 57.5kg | $20.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Arctic Attraction | 11 | Jessie Bazan | 54.5kg |
Steeline Roofing Hcp (C2)
Light Force is the standout on form with a superb 2-from-3 record at this Hobart 1390m trip on soft. He has won his last two starts comfortably and maps perfectly from barrier 3.
Bayside rarely runs a bad race and has placed at this level multiple times. He maps well from barrier 4 and should be in the finish again.
Regal Hunter is lightly raced and showed promise winning his maiden on soft. From barrier 1 and with light weight, he can settle on the speed and improve.
Coastal Strike has a solid record at this track and distance and gets a huge weight advantage with 51.5kg. He returns from a spell but may be fresh.
- 1st6Sir JagAnthony Darmanin$7.50
- 2nd9Coastal StrikeKirra-Lee Lane$10.00
- 3rd2Light ForceBulent Muhcu$7.50
- 4th1AzontoDaniel Ganderton$3.00
Full result · 13 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Sir Jag | 9 | Anthony Darmanin | J F Luttrell | 56kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 9 | Coastal Strike | 8 | Kirra-Lee Lane | P A Hill | 51.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Light Force | 3 | Bulent Muhcu | Ms R Hall | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Azonto | 13 | Daniel Ganderton | Barry Campbell | 58kg | $3.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Regal Hunter | 1 | Christopher Pang | Jessie Bazan | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Henley Extreme | 12 | Codi Jordan | Liam Beamish | 56kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Mateus | 10 | Hayley Mc Carthy | J K Blacker | 54.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Purr Sefanee | 2 | Bree Temple | Bradley Franklin | 51kg | $9.50 |
| 9th | 7 | Windara Wolf | 6 | Mehmet Ulucinar | S Gandy | 56kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 13 | Miss Pebbles | 14 | Erica Byrne Burke | Andrew Moore | 54kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 12 | April's Dance | 5 | Georgie Catania | Ms R Hall | 54kg | $71.00 |
| 12th | 8 | Striding Bay | 11 | Sheridan Clarke | L R Laskey | 55.5kg | $101.00 |
| 13th | 4 | Bayside | 4 | Chloe Wells | Barry Campbell | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| Scr | 14 | Whisper Of Matilda | 7 | Justin W Stanley | Stephen Lockhart | 54kg |
Aviso TAS Insurance Brokers Plate (C6)
The significant class drop from BM76 to Class 6 is the key angle—this gelding has been competitive at higher levels and returns fresh with a proven first-up record. While the 1200m distance is unproven for wins, the class edge and fitness platform from quality opposition make this the horse to beat.
Thespian Waters offers excellent each-way value as a proven Hobart specialist dropping significantly in class. The 40% win rate at this track is outstanding, and the first-up record (33% wins) provides confidence despite the 65-day break. While recent form shows placings rather than wins, the class drop from Listed/Open company to Class 6 is substantial. The gelding has won at this exact track/distance before and maps to settle midfield from barrier 12, which suits the moderate tempo. Strong each-way proposition.
Tassie Power represents the improving type stepping up in class off a last-start Hobart win. The gelding's soft track form (70% place rate) and Hobart record (64% place rate) are strong positives, while the 54kg weight provides a genuine advantage over the top-weighted runners. The class rise is a concern, but the recent win suggests upward trajectory.
However, the 171-day spell and poor first-up statistics (0 wins from 3) are significant concerns. The last-start BM68 win on Soft 5 at Longford demonstrates current ability, and the inside barrier 2 is ideal for settling on-pace. The gelding's 80% place rate at this track/distance combination suggests strong familiarity.
- 1st9RubbleonthedoubleErica Byrne Burke$13.00
- 2nd1In The OceanTroy Baker$5.50
- 3rd5Thespian WatersDaniel Ganderton$4.80
- 4th7KakiaBulent Muhcu$14.00
Full result · 13 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Rubbleonthedouble | 4 | Erica Byrne Burke | J L Keys | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | In The Ocean | 8 | Troy Baker | Sarah Cotton | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Thespian Waters | 12 | Daniel Ganderton | Ashley Meaburn | 59kg | $4.80 |
| 4th | 7 | Kakia | 2 | Bulent Muhcu | Jessie Bazan | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Thisismyturf | 1 | Lauryn Bingley | T W Evans | 59kg | $61.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Fluffy's Girl | 13 | Hayley Mc Carthy | Christie Burt | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 8 | No Access | 10 | Anthony Darmanin | J L Keys | 57kg | $20.00 |
| 8th | 15 | Tassie Power | 11 | Bree Temple | S Gandy | 54kg | $4.60 |
| 9th | 10 | Sky Land | 3 | Sheridan Clarke | J L Keys | 55kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Shy Guy | 6 | Chloe Wells | Barry Campbell | 59kg | $11.00 |
| 11th | 4 | The Longest Yard | 7 | Kelvin Sanderson | G J Stevenson | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 12th | 11 | We Deserve This | 5 | Christopher Pang | Tony Romeo | 55kg | $151.00 |
| 13th | 2 | Restricted Access | 14 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 59kg | $9.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Billie The Great | 5 | Codi Jordan | Bradley Franklin | 54kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Esprit Diva | 9 | Catherine Van Munster | J F Luttrell | 54kg |
Aintree Contracting (Bm68)
Flying Billie is the standout selection based on last-start dominance at this exact track/distance in higher grade. The drop from BM76 to BM68 is significant, and the horse's Hobart 1390m record (44% win rate, 67% place rate) is exceptional. While the jockey booking is unproven and the weight rise is a minor concern, class and suitability overwhelm these negatives.
Verbano is the each-way value play based on exceptional Hobart 1390m place consistency (36% strike rate) and proven wet-track ability, including a Heavy 10 win. The recent Victorian campaign shows the mare can handle stronger opposition, with a solid 5th at Warrnambool Heavy 10. The barrier allows settling on-pace where Hobart winners come from. However, the last-start failure and 35-day break are concerns, as is the lack of jockey combination history. The soft-track record is moderate (13% win rate) compared to good tracks (18%), but the Heavy 10 win suggests adaptability.
Adachi presents as the main danger based on the exceptional jockey/horse combination (100% strike rate) and proven suitability at this track/distance. The Hobart 1390m record is strong, and soft-track form is reliable. However, the last-start failure and declining form trend are concerning. The key is whether the jockey change back to Darmanin (who has won both previous rides) can reverse the recent slide. The barrier allows tactical positioning, and the horse has shown it can finish strongly from midfield.
The February win here in BM68 on soft demonstrates capability at this level, and the last-start 3rd shows the mare is finding form again. The soft-track record is solid, and the Hobart place rate (38%) is strong. The inside barrier allows settling on-pace where winners come from. However, the poor jockey/trainer combination (4% strike rate) and overall low win rate (10%) are significant concerns.
- 1st2Fighting FloydKirra-Lee Lane$10.00
- 2nd7VerbanoErica Byrne Burke$5.00
- 3rd1Nicco The GreekSam Kennedy$10.00
- 3rd10StardarmusHayley Mc Carthy$17.00
Full result · 12 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Fighting Floyd | 12 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Imogen Miller | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 7 | Verbano | 8 | Erica Byrne Burke | J L Keys | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Nicco The Greek | 13 | Sam Kennedy | J L Keys | 61.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Stardarmus | 7 | Hayley Mc Carthy | J K Blacker | 54.5kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Just A Needs | 11 | Justin W Stanley | J F Luttrell | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Flying Billie | 4 | Bree Temple | Christie Burt | 57kg | $2.60 |
| 7th | 12 | Geegee Strawberry | 6 | Troy Baker | J F Luttrell | 54kg | $17.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Designer Dreamer | 5 | Codi Jordan | G J Stevenson | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Runaway Statement | 9 | Christopher Pang | Brendan McShane | 52.5kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Araya Sunshine | 3 | Bulent Muhcu | J K Blacker | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 11th | 8 | Dancing Wolf | 1 | Chloe Wells | Barry Campbell | 55kg | $18.00 |
| 12th | 13 | Steele My Sunshine | 2 | Catherine Van Munster | J F Luttrell | 54kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Adachi | 10 | Anthony Darmanin | M A Ganderton | 57.5kg |
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