Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Sunday 5 July 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Casterton. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Comes off a strong second in a Warrnambool maiden hurdle and brings an excellent Soft-track profile. He maps to control or sit handy in a race projected to go slowly, which plays to Casterton’s sustained-run pattern. The Maher/Pateman pairing is a major positive and recent trials suggest he’s been prepared with purpose for the jumps. Despite maiden volatility, his current jumps form, fitness and map edge make him the most likely winner.
Arrives off a strong flat 3600m second and brings the right staying profile for Casterton’s sustained effort on Soft ground. He should settle in the first few and be within striking range turning for home. The prior mishap over hurdles is a query, but his fitness, class drop and proven stamina offset the risk.
Has the key local credential with a recent second at this course and distance on Soft in stronger company. The return to maiden grade and the likely slow tempo should allow him to find a rhythm and build into it. Heavy defeats since can be forgiven with the surface back to Soft 7. A solid each-way hope to fill the frame and threaten late if the tempo allows.
Brings a recent maiden hurdle placing and genuine staying credentials, which is ideal for Casterton’s Soft-ground grind. Likely to settle near the speed in a slow-run race, he can be within range at the 400m. The Wilde stable and rider combo add confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Flashlight | 7 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 69.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 5 | Morryl Moral | 6 | Steven Pateman | C Maher | 69.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 9 | Zoom | 4 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 69.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 7 | The Vocalist | 11 | Martin Kelly | S B Laming | 69.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Sunday Buzz | 10 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 69.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Lodbrok | 9 | Daniel Small | Andrew Bobbin | 69.5kg | $7.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Think Tank | 2 | Braidon Small | Shane Jackson | 69.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Guarded Optimist | 1 | Micheal Casey | Simon Ryan | 69.5kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 10 | High Heeled | 3 | Jordan Hart | Joanne Mugavin | 67.5kg | $61.00 |
| 3 | Kawhia | 5 | Tom Dabernig | 69.5kg | |||
| Scr | 11 | Wayed To Go | 8 | Braidon Small | Q J Scott | 69.5kg |
Genuine yardstick this prep: Casterton 3500m Soft win, then Sandown 3rd and a dominant Warrnambool Hurdle win. He stays, handles Soft/Heavy, and can begin improving from the 600m—ideal for Casterton’s sustained finish. Weight rise is the only real knock, plus a midfield map in a potentially slow-run race.
Looks the map horse: can control a slow tempo and kick, which is often decisive at Casterton on Soft. Terang hurdle win this prep stamps his jumping quality; Sandown and Warrnambool runs were respectable in stronger/uglier ground. He handles the weight and gets Pateman. Slight distance query beyond 3400m and recent form is solid rather than spectacular, so he’s the main danger rather than the top pick.
Capable flat stayer who has translated reasonably to hurdles and handles Soft ground. Maps handy, which is valuable if the speed is controlled. However, he shoulders the top weight and failed to finish at this track/trip in May. Respect his class, but the impost and prior Casterton miss temper confidence—more of a place-type this setup.
He gets significant weight relief, draws inside to do no work, and strips fitter for his only hurdles run (when well beaten at this T/D). Blinkers off could help him relax and jump cleaner. Soft record is only fair and recent flat form is plain, so keep stakes small and play for an improvement-driven result.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Ferago | 5 | Daniel Small | P F Ryan | 73kg | $1.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | Golden Crusader | 3 | Steven Pateman | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 72kg | $2.80 |
| 3rd | 1 | Point Nepean | 4 | Micheal Casey | Shane Jackson | 74.5kg | $8.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Bitcoin | 2 | Martin Kelly | Jessica Pateman | 74kg | |
| 5 | Hula Beat | 1 | Dean Parker | Andrew Bobbin | 67kg |
Saint Eustace brings the most reliable steeple form: a last-start win on Heavy 10 and a prior second at today’s Casterton 3800m on Soft 6. He’s rock-hard fit, stays strongly and can build momentum from the 600m, which is key here. The class rise and 71kg are negatives, but proven course/trip form offsets that.
Karburan profiles as the map horse, likely controlling a modest tempo and handling Soft ground. However, he debuts over steeple fences and was well beaten at 3900m last time, so there’s a genuine class/obstacle query versus a proven chaser.
Nightfall arrives fit off a NZ Maiden Steeple win and should secure a soft run from barrier 1, which is valuable in a slowly run staying test. He handles rain-affected going and can be within striking range turning for home.
He’ll likely get back, which is a map negative in a tactical small field, and his recent steeple PUL is a clear risk.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Charlie Messy Hair | 2 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 66kg | $11.00 |
| 2nd | 3 | Saint Eustace | 5 | Steven Pateman | Jessica Pateman | 71kg | $2.25 |
| 3rd | 4 | Nightfall | 1 | Jordan Hart | Joanne Mugavin | 70.5kg | $7.50 |
| 1 | Not Usual Dream | 3 | Martin Kelly | Rachael Cunningham | 72kg | ||
| 2 | Karburan | 4 | Will Gordon | Andrew Bobbin | 71.5kg |
Second up, rising from 1500m to 1800m looks the right move for this Dundeel gelding. He returned with the best recent last-600 in the field and should settle in the first few from a workable draw. Casterton on Soft rewards sustained momentum from the 600m, and he profiles as the improver who can control or stalk a soft tempo. With fitness to come and a strong rider aboard, he appeals as the most likely winner despite limited soft-track evidence.
Genuine and fit, he was a close third at this course/trip on wet ground and followed with a solid second. With a predicted slow tempo, his capacity to land in the first few is a major asset at Casterton. While not a noted soft-track performer, he copes with rain-affected going and keeps presenting. The longstanding maiden tag tempers confidence, but his map and recent form make him a strong winning threat and a solid each-way play.
Dropping to 1800m and mapping midfield from gate 2, she will need the race to build early enough to use her stamina. On a Soft 7 with a likely slow tempo, she may be forced to sprint late, which isn’t her ideal scenario.
The extra trip should help his sustained build from the 600m, which is ideal at Casterton on Soft.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Darwinian | 9 | Dean Yendall | Jamie Edwards | 59.5kg | $3.70 |
| 2nd | 8 | Numbersneverseen | 12 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 9 | Janey Bopper | 2 | Jack Hill | Andrew Bobbin | 57.5kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 7 | Newcombe | 10 | Cian Macredmond | Ann-Jeanette Tindale | 59.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 11 | Miss Dependable | 8 | Christine Puls | P A Preusker | 57.5kg | $51.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Libby Ann | 7 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 57.5kg | $8.50 |
| 7th | 6 | Manzoray | 1 | Zac Moore | Timothy McGuigan | 56.5kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 14 | Victory Blues | 3 | Sarah Field | Ann-Jeanette Tindale | 54.5kg | $71.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Rock On Foxy | 4 | Jason Webb | S R Fisher | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 5 | He's Electric | 6 | Melissa Julius | M W Greig | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 4 | Dioscuri | 14 | Andrew Bobbin | 59.5kg | $26.00 | |
| Scr | 1 | All The Moves | 5 | Ms M Lawson | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Cattleman's Bar | 11 | Jade Smith | P A Preusker | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Miss Delightful | 13 | Aaron Purcell | 57.5kg |
Matrooshi brings the right blend of map, fitness and sustained late strength for a Soft 7 Casterton 1400m. Despite limited Soft wins, her place profile is solid.
Dubai Dancer profiles to bounce back at her pet trip with a soft draw and genuine wet-track record. The moderate tempo should let her hold a prominent spot and use her stamina from the 600m.
Shades Of Stardom is trending the right way after breaking through over a similar trip and looks suited by Casterton’s sustained-run profile. He can settle midfield and build into the race with Yendall aboard.
Salsbury Hill brings direct, recent Casterton 1400m form with a narrow BM62 second and profiles as a grinder who can be within striking range turning.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Dubai Dancer | 4 | Jade Smith | Tom Dabernig | 58kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | One Bound | 14 | Melissa Julius | Tom Dabernig | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Sacred Fort | 16 | Will Gordon | Taige Weir | 59kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 7 | Shades Of Stardom | 7 | Dean Yendall | M J Williams | 58.5kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Salsbury Hill | 8 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 58.5kg | $9.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Matrooshi | 9 | Jack Hill | Symon Wilde | 56.5kg | $5.50 |
| 7th | 11 | Pardon My French | 2 | Cian Macredmond | C Maher | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Atomic Gold | 13 | Zac Moore | Joanne Mugavin | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 9th | 16 | See De Night | 11 | Christine Puls | Ms B O'Loughlin | 54kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Always Hapi | 15 | Sarah Field | V L Malady | 57kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Fonn Power | 6 | Patrick Payne | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Zetheros | 5 | Aaron Purcell | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Break The Taboo | 10 | Shane Jackson | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Full Commitment | 3 | J F Macmillan | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | World Action | 1 | Aaron Purcell | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Dark Harmony | 12 | Aaron Purcell | 57kg |
Class relief is the key. From barrier 5 she can camp just behind the speed, ideal at Casterton where being within range at the 400m counts on Soft ground. Wet record is sound and she owns an 1100m win. The 61.5kg is the only real knock, but her class edge offsets it.
Her turn-of-foot is genuine for this grade and the Casterton Soft pattern suits handy runners. The risks are the first-up profile and moderate Soft record, plus she’s yet to score at 1100m.
Fit, progressive and tactically versatile. From a wide alley she can still be in the first handful and sustain from the 600m, which is the right profile at Casterton on Soft. Minor knocks are the class rise and gate, but she looks a solid placing hope.
Second up and back to a suitable Soft surface where her record is far better than the fresh synthetic effort suggests. The class drop into BM56 helps, and from barrier 7 she can settle in the first half in a race without true backmarkers. Speculative each-way value if the track races fairly.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Melissa Kate | 2 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Stargust | 6 | Cian Macredmond | Joanne Mugavin | 59.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Brutify | 1 | Jason Webb | Jamie Edwards | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 1 | The Kill Club | 5 | Adam Chambers | 61.5kg | $4.00 | |
| 5th | 10 | First Division | 13 | Sarah Field | K T Bourke | 53kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Charming Di | 4 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 54.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Long Lost Friend | 8 | Dean Yendall | M J O'Donnell | 57kg | $3.80 |
| 8th | 8 | Royal Telephone | 3 | Mikaela Lawrence | Vicki O'Connell | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Nankeen | 11 | Christine Puls | Ms B O'Loughlin | 59kg | $18.00 |
| 10th | 13 | Wind Dreamer | 7 | John Keane | 54kg | $101.00 | |
| 11th | 6 | Havilah | 10 | Melissa Julius | Ricky & Kristy Bruhn | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Restless Wind | 9 | Will Gordon | Andrew Bobbin | 61kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Secret Hell | 12 | Jack Hill | Tom Dabernig | 61kg |
He handles rain-affected ground and has strong local credentials. The main query is map: from barrier 11 he risks getting too far back if the tempo is slow.
Well treated at the weights and maps ideally to be in the first few in a predicted slow-run 2000m. Soft stats are light and this is a class rise, but the tactical advantage and low weight make her a logical top-three contender if she can conserve and quicken from the 400m.
Epoch is a progressive stayer who has won at 2000m and 2200m on rain-affected ground and profiles ideally for a slow-tempo, sustain-and-build race at Casterton. From gate 1 he can control or box-seat, which is a key advantage on Soft. While he steps from BM56 to BM62 and his Soft stats are light, his recent heavy-track wins and strong stamina make him the most likely winner.
Patrick Payne’s stable places these types well. The negatives are significant—first-up at 2000m with 63kg on a Soft 7 and a likely rearward map in a slow-run race. If he’s forward enough and the tempo lifts earlier than expected, his stamina could see him surge late at overs.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Shamex | 7 | Jade Smith | P A Preusker | 53.5kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 10 | Pianta | 3 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 56kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Split | 2 | Patrick Payne | 63kg | $8.50 | |
| 4th | 8 | Vieux Riche | 5 | Jack Hill | Shane Jackson | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 2 | Idon'tgetit | 11 | Sarah Field | P A Chow | 58kg | $2.90 |
| 6th | 6 | Black Rutile | 8 | Will Gordon | Andrew Bobbin | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Four Outlaws | 9 | Jason Webb | M A O'Leary | 60.5kg | $16.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Brynner | 4 | Melissa Julius | M J O'Connor | 54.5kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Epoch | 1 | Dean Yendall | M J Williams | 60kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Scenic Host | 6 | Christine Puls | Vanessa Hutchinson | 60kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Morisu Ojo | 10 | Cian Macredmond | C Maher | 58kg |
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