Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Tuesday 4 August 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Bairnsdale. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
King Tagaloa has the most reliable and progressive form of anyone in this field, running credible placings in deeper affairs and coming off a narrow 2nd at Seymour over this exact trip on testing ground. Second-up and fit, he maps to sit close and is the most likely to go forward with a genuine winning chance.
Steal Away has strong recent form with back-to-back competitive placings, including a narrow 2nd at Moe last start. She has proven she handles this track/trip combination on wet ground, and represents a genuine natural improver ready to go one better.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Venus Shock | 7 | Teodore Nugent | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Pride Of Mandy | 1 | Damien Thornton | C I Brown | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 6 | Hirarkee | 9 | Caitlin Hollowood | R C Manning | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Steal Away | 2 | Patrick Moloney | R D Griffiths | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Ask The Captain | 5 | Valentin Le Boeuf | E P Francese | 59.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 7 | King Tagaloa | 8 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 59.5kg | $4.20 |
| 7th | 2 | Baldoni | 14 | Adam Mc Cabe | Michael Huglin | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Chosen Point | 10 | Sally Wynne | Adam Hanley | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Churchillena | 4 | Ryan Houston | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Churchill Lane | 6 | Makisha Salter | Jason Warren | 57.5kg | $6.00 |
| 11th | 9 | Far From A Cry | 12 | Nathan Punch | T Kilgower | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 5 | Flying Berouka | 15 | Dylan Dunn | Brett Scott | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Askmumaskdad | 11 | Craig Anderson | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Lightning Joey | 3 | Brad Rawiller | Logan McGill | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Composite Action | 13 | Yoko Ota | Yoko Ota | 57.5kg |
Untested on Soft/at this track, but the raw class edge is significant in a maiden field lacking similar quality. Warrants clear favouritism.
First-up but produced a solid effort fresh previously. A forward barrier suits the Bairnsdale bias, making this a leading each-way threat to the top pick.
Graffitude arrives with no visible public form but boasts elite stable and jockey connections with a strong combined strike rate. The proxy evaluation framework supports this as a live threat despite the data gap, though barrier 13 is a slight concern.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 13 | Karumba Girl | 6 | Jackie Beriman | Dale Short | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Lochend Princess | 11 | Jason Maskiell | Paul Worthington | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Arashi Flash | 5 | Dylan Dunn | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Graffitude | 13 | Teodore Nugent | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 57kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 11 | Jourama | 3 | Damien Thornton | A & S Freedman | 57kg | $2.90 |
| 6th | 9 | Snitchy | 17 | Jake Noonan | Jason Warren | 57.5kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Lim's Perdido | 1 | Sally Wynne | Adam Hanley | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Comradeship | 8 | Patrick Moloney | E Jusufovic | 59.5kg | $4.80 |
| 9th | 1 | Ability To Exceed | 7 | Adam Mc Cabe | T Kilgower | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Welkin Star | 12 | Melea Castle | Nicole Dickson | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 11th | 8 | Silver Maid | 14 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ms S Trolove | 57.5kg | $71.00 |
| 12th | 7 | Overflirt | 2 | Jack Martin | Shane Nichols & Hayden Black | 57.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Monolithic | 4 | Carleen Hefel | E Jusufovic | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | March On By | 15 | Ryan Houston | Simon Zahra | 57kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Hoi Village | 10 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Merchantessa | 16 | Jason Warren | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Jenni Bam Bam | 9 | T Kilgower | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 18 | Montostratus | 8 | K J Fythe | 59.5kg |
Azzurri Queen presents the strongest recent form in the field, finishing a close third in a heavy-track maiden at Moe last start with clear signs of improvement. Barrier is workable at this tight circuit if she can track forward, making her the most reliable top selection despite lack of Bairnsdale-specific experience.
Captive Rock's course-and-distance form is the standout angle here - he was runner-up at this same Bairnsdale 1000m Soft-track maiden last start, beaten under 3 lengths, and arrives second-up in improving order.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Oxley Tycoon | 8 | Carleen Hefel | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $2.80 |
| 2nd | 3 | Azzurri Queen | 11 | Patrick Moloney | M M Laurie | 57.5kg | $2.80 |
| 3rd | 9 | Millionaire Lover | 2 | Jason Maskiell | Jerome Hunter | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Annule | 9 | Adam Mc Cabe | Michael Huglin | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Ballerini | 6 | Jake Noonan | David & Coral Feek | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Xuxa Kiss | 1 | Damien Thornton | C I Brown | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 7th | 6 | Sheeze Ominous | 14 | Jackie Beriman | M Croston & G Gilmour | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 13 | Now Hear This | 3 | Brad Rawiller | Colin Scott | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 15 | Cheeky Doll | 5 | Nathan Punch | W J Wood | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 10th | 14 | Highland Diva | 7 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Susie Wells | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Last Cent | 13 | Jade Da Rose | D C Harrison | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | La Velocita | 10 | Bailey Kinninmont | M C Kent | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Captive Rock | 15 | Ryan Houston | Simon Zahra | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Isle Of Mona | 12 | Nick Ryan | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Kung Fu Panda | 4 | Teodore Nugent | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 55kg |
Clydebank Robber has course and distance form in his favour, finishing second at this exact track/trip last campaign.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Chateau Dancer | 3 | Liana Wood | A R McGregor | 54.5kg | $1.75 |
| 2nd | 3 | Wyndstar | 7 | Brad Rawiller | Malcolm Leys | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Lucky Chance | 4 | Adam Mc Cabe | E V Musgrove | 59.5kg | $3.40 |
| 4th | 1 | Clydebank Robber | 8 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Susie Wells | 59.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Now Perform | 5 | Melea Castle | C G Murray | 57.5kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Hayai Tsuru | 2 | Teodore Nugent | Greg Hayes | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Truly Fierce | 6 | Jason Maskiell | Cameron Templeton | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Caitlin's Punch | 9 | Jake Noonan | A W Noonan | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Jonquil | 1 | Patrick Moloney | Brett Scott | 57.5kg |
Winter Grace has an outstanding record at Bairnsdale over this exact distance, winning her last two starts here including a win over today's class/track/distance combination just three weeks ago. Consistent, fit, and clearly suited to these conditions, she is the standout form-based selection despite a moderate barrier.
Chateau Vega was narrowly beaten by today's top selection last start in an identical track/distance/class scenario, finishing just half a length back. Consistent, versatile, and drawn to get a forward position, she rates as the most credible threat to Winter Grace and a natural each-way proposition.
Tee Eight is a consistent minor-placer dropping in grade with a well-performed jockey booked.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Opus | 1 | Teodore Nugent | Simone Manne | 56.5kg | $17.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Winter Grace | 6 | Bailey Kinninmont | P Foster | 61kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 3 | Outdrive | 10 | Jason Maskiell | Kelvin Southey | 61.5kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Luckyheleft | 11 | Ryan Houston | Rachael Cunningham | 61kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Mana Combat | 4 | Damien Thornton | Richard Laming | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Chateau Vega | 2 | Nadia Daniels | M M Laurie | 57kg | $3.80 |
| 7th | 6 | Blue Ismay | 7 | Dylan Dunn | T Busuttin & N Young | 60kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 7 | Tee Eight | 8 | Jake Noonan | A & J Williams | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 9th | 12 | In Your Hands | 13 | Valentin Le Boeuf | T Kilgower | 55kg | $151.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Ex Machina | 3 | Jackie Beriman | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 4 | Papal Army | 9 | Jack Martin | Amy & Ash Yargi | 61.5kg | $8.50 |
| Scr | 2 | King Of Savoy | 12 | Trent Edmonds | 61.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | She's A Con | 5 | Reece Goodwin | 58kg |
Bank Heist backs up quickly after a clear-cut track/distance win at Bairnsdale in similar soft conditions, showing he handles this circuit well. Class rise is a query but the map suits with no genuine leaders forcing a breakdown, and Daniels is in red-hot form. Fair top selection on current form trajectory.
Count Of Toulouse arrives off a course-and-distance win at this exact track over 1600m on soft ground just three weeks ago, defeating today's rival Bank Heist. His soft-track record of 4 wins from 8 is outstanding, and the barrier draw is manageable. This is the strongest, most current form in the race and he rates the most likely winner.
Miss Tramell is a genuine soft-track specialist who was competitive in this exact race last start, finishing right behind the placegetters.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Bank Heist | 8 | Nadia Daniels | Vincent Hall | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Almago | 13 | Bailey Kinninmont | M C Kent | 56.5kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Stella Cantante | 3 | N J Harnett | 55kg | $17.00 | |
| 4th | 1 | Square Deal | 15 | Alice Kennedy | Kelvin Southey | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 11 | Preservator | 9 | Ryan Houston | K J Fythe | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 15 | Satin Image | 11 | Ms H Stephens | 54.5kg | $31.00 | |
| 7th | 7 | Pro Velocity | 2 | Olivia East | Reece Goodwin | 57.5kg | $9.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Forest Jim | 14 | Chelsea Thompson | C I Brown | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Grand Sage | 10 | Caitlin Hollowood | R C Manning | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 10th | 13 | Heff | 7 | Makisha Salter | Ms S Trolove | 55.5kg | $26.00 |
| 11th | 6 | Cuban Dawn | 5 | Stephanie Hateley | David & Coral Feek | 57.5kg | $14.00 |
| 12th | 10 | Miss Tramell | 12 | Emily Pozman | T Kilgower | 58.5kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Count Of Toulouse | 1 | Bree Temple | Dale Short | 59kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Sensational Ruler | 6 | Richard Laming | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Little Richie Turf | 4 | Ms D Clover | 58kg |
Magnardo boasts a stunning recent form line with eight straight wins before a placing and another win, clearly the most credentialed form horse in the race. The main risk is barrier 12 at a tight circuit that rewards forward position, but ability and fitness are strong enough to offset a moderate map disadvantage.
Racetothebottom has course and distance form in near-identical conditions last start, finishing 3rd. Second-up with a good record fresh off a spell cycle, drawn to get a forward position, and boosted by a jockey in strong recent form. A genuine each-way threat with clear place claims and winning upside.
Scholl Deep was runner-up last start at this same track and distance on a similarly rain-affected surface, showing clear course suitability and an improving profile. Solid heavy/soft track credentials and a good barrier make this a legitimate placing threat, even though its winning strike rate remains modest.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Pantoja | 5 | Sam Kennedy | Logan McGill | 59kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 1 | Magnardo | 12 | Alice Kennedy | Reece Goodwin | 59.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 8 | Adiuro | 8 | Jason Maskiell | R J Besanko | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Royal Turf | 7 | Damien Thornton | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 61kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Racetothebottom | 6 | Jake Noonan | A & J Williams | 61.5kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Blondie's Toronado | 10 | Jackie Beriman | Shane Nichols & Hayden Black | 61.5kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 6 | Scholl Deep | 4 | Teodore Nugent | R Cluning | 60kg | $14.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Soobooma | 1 | Patrick Moloney | Kasey Besanko | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Shout Out Girl | 3 | Sally Wynne | Ms D Wynne | 54kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 7 | O'mosa | 9 | Jade Da Rose | D C Harrison | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Cable De Vega | 11 | Stephanie Hateley | Michael Huglin | 56kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Banjette | 2 | Adam Mc Cabe | Dennis Julius | 54kg |
Retaining the winning rider and drawn to get a forward position suits the track profile. Class rise is a risk but the visual dominance and quick backup suggest professional management and residual upside.
Bella Cinque drops significantly in class from Bench 70 company and has been racing consistently without winning recently. A funded and fit runner capable of hitting the frame.
Irresistible Sir was competitive in third at this same Bairnsdale 1000m soft meeting behind today's top two selections, with a strong course and distance record.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Dismantle | 2 | Jake Noonan | M W Walker | 60kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 8 | Mont Saint Michel | 7 | Damien Thornton | Paul & Tracey Templeton | 60kg | $20.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | My China Plate | 3 | Teodore Nugent | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 59kg | $1.65 |
| 4th | 6 | Poisonous | 8 | Jason Maskiell | Amy & Ash Yargi | 61.5kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 11 | Eye Succeed | 4 | Emily Pozman | Taylah Hill | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Elly Dee | 5 | Adam Mc Cabe | T Kilgower | 58kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Irresistible Sir | 13 | Valentin Le Boeuf | R C Manning | 59kg | $61.00 |
| 8th | 1 | I'm Savvy As | 9 | Alice Kennedy | Reece Goodwin | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Wind Dreamer | 1 | Carleen Hefel | John Keane | 56kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Sophast | 10 | Jack Martin | Greg Hayes | 63kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Bella Cinque | 11 | Sam Kennedy | Logan McGill | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Jack The Judge | 12 | Brad Rawiller | Logan McGill | 62kg | |
| Scr | 5 | It's Gnarly | 6 | Ryan Houston | Logan McGill | 61.5kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Heartattack Jack | 14 | D J Walkley | 57kg |
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