Townsville tips and results

Our price $8.00 · SP $15.00 · Ivo Fry

Okay Zoomer has been a model of consistency with three straight top-three finishes at Townsville, including a third over this 1200m on June 22. He finished ahead of Dark Fae in the August 1 1400m maiden and again meets her 1kg better. Ivo Fry's familiarity is a plus and he maps to settle midfield with cover.

Our price $13.00 · SP $26.00 · Nathan Thomas

The step to 1200m should suit her finishing pattern and Nathan Thomas is in good riding form. The wide barrier 13 is a negative, but she has early speed to cross and is building fitness.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Ben Kennedy

Kureder is the value runner. He has not fired at Townsville yet, but the 2000m trip is shorter than his winning distances and he gets Ben Kennedy, who strikes at 30% here.

Our price $3.30 · SP $3.00 · Ryan Wiggins

Lean Eagle rates the strongest winning chance on a Townsville profile that rewards forward runners with proven course/distance form. His 1200m record at this track (2 wins from 4) and light 57kg offset the awkward gate, while Wiggins' excellent 63% strike rate on the horse adds confidence. The recent 4th was a sound run behind a hot tempo.

Our price $9.00 · SP $15.00 · Masayuki Abe

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.40 · Amy Graham

Betterlucknexttime is the clear class runner and the map should play into his hands with no natural leader engaged. If he crosses to the front from gate 3 he can control a slowly-run 1400m. The concern is the booking of Amy Graham and the fresh 59kg, while his last start was poor. He still rates the principal danger to Faraway Downs and is worth saving on for place purposes.

Our price $10.00 · SP $26.00 · Adam Sewell

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.60 · Lacey Morrison

Airwaves is the strongest race-shape and class play. He ran well in an Open 1400 at Townsville two starts ago and now drops well below that grade. The inside draw and likely slow tempo should allow him to control the race from the front, while the cross-over nose band may help him focus. His Good-track record is a minor query, but the significant class drop outweighs it. He is the most probable winner.

Our price $13.00 · SP $18.00 · Masayuki Abe

Redlights On is the value runner. His 1400m record is excellent, with three wins from five attempts, and he returns to a far more suitable trip and grade after a poor run over 2000m. The barrier and pace map suit him, and he has previously won a similar Restricted 55 over 1400m on Good ground.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.20 · Aidan Holt

His last-start 2000m failure can be forgiven as the 1609m is clearly his trip. The query is the jockey's recent strike rate and Bluebird Bay's tendency to place rather than win, which is why Lone Force is marginally preferred.

Our price $12.00 · SP $16.00 · Chris Whiteley

He will need a kind run from barrier 9 at topweight, but his Good-track strike rate and consistent effort against stronger company make him the value way into the race.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.00 · Adam Sewell

Fabulean has the highest raw ability in the field, coming from Open and Listed company, but she is first-up over 138 days and has minimal experience at 1000m. Her first-up record is not convincing and she may be better suited to longer trips.

Our price $8.50 · SP $9.50 · Lacey Morrison

Time To Prophet is a genuine Townsville 1000m specialist who maps well from barrier 5 and is second-up, a pattern that has produced a win and a placing previously. Her last-start failure came first-up on Soft 7, and she is entitled to improve sharply on Good ground.