Dubbo tips and results

Our price $4.40 · SP $5.00 · Zoe Hunt

The concern is not ability but shape: he is a backmarker stepping to a mile for the first time at a track where runners settling seventh or worse win under 4% of mile races, and he carries top weight on a class rise.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.40 · Jacob Stiff

The most reliable placegetter in the race, with two consecutive Class 1 thirds and a jockey riding at a 35% strike rate over his last 20. He maps into the most productive settling zone at Dubbo and gets in on a manageable weight after the claim.

Our price $8.00 · SP $10.00 · Clayton Gallagher

She led and was run down at Coonabarabran, then finished off well at Narromine when caught wide of a crowd. Blinkers first time plus Gallagher, who is 16% here and 14% for Robb, reads as clear intent.

Our price $7.00 · SP $3.80 · Donovan Dillon

The most likely leader from a good gate at a track where leaders place better than one time in two. She trialled home a winner over 1000m at Tamworth on Good ground and gets the tongue tie removed.

Our price $3.30 · SP $1.90 · A Bullock

Barrier 8 with an on-pace/midfield map is the ideal spot with three genuine leaders expected to burn each other off. A Bullock is in outstanding touch (30% last 20, 17% at Dubbo) and wins 33% for this stable. Suitability, map and momentum all align.

Our price $8.00 · SP $26.00 · Billy Cray

Barrier 5 with a midfield settle is the perfect setup for the very fast tempo three genuine leaders should generate.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.50 · Amy Mc Lucas

With three genuine leaders forecast to set a very fast tempo, a midfield settler with a finishing burst is ideally placed. The weight rise and the inexperienced booking are the reservations, but the form case is the clearest in the field.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.00 · A Bullock

Rupestris is the on-pace balance to the closers in this analysis. He is the only runner in the race with a win at today's 1400m trip, he drops significantly in grade from Class 1 and BM66 assignments, and he returns to a Good surface after a wet-track sequence that produced his three worst finishes. Barrier 6 and a forecast settling position just off the speed matches the Dubbo profile that wins here, and A Bullock's 17% record at the track adds real intent. Weight and recent results temper confidence.

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.00 · Jacob Stiff

The value play.

Our price $4.20 · SP $8.50 · Jess Del Frari

The clear class runner dropping back to a grade he has already won in. Early-speed rank 1 lets him sit just off a hot tempo, which is the winning profile at Dubbo sprints. The weight is the only genuine query.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · J Pracey-Holmes

The most reliable place proposition in the race. Her 1000m record of 5:1-2-0 is solid and Pracey-Holmes knows her well.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Hollie Hull

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · Liam Blanch

He drops sharply from Open grade, draws barrier 2 and can take up the handy position that Dubbo's staying bias rewards, with only two moderate leaders to sit behind. The 62.5kg is the clear risk, but he has won carrying large weights and his 20% career strike rate marks him as a horse that finishes off the job rather than merely placing.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Barrier 3 and 58kg are both helpful. The reservation is conversion: one win from fifteen starts, a jockey badly out of form at this track, and a first attempt at 2200m for a horse that pulls.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.50 · Braith Nock

The fast tempo helps. The offsets are real, however - she must come from last on a track that heavily favours on-pace runners over 1200m, from a gate that can bury her, with a jockey out of form.