Townsville tips and results

Our price $8.00 · SP $9.00 · Amy Graham

Our price $9.00 · SP $10.00 · C Whiteley

She has already placed in this company, and her two bad runs have come through slow starts or wide barriers.

Our price $7.50 · SP $13.00 · S Cormack

All Banged Up is the next best because his overall form is more reliable than his last run suggests. He has finished third in three of five starts and already placed over 1400m on Good at Rockhampton. From barrier 3 with Cormack aboard, he should get every chance to settle just off the speed. The main query is whether he over-raced when leading at Cairns, but the low draw and rider-stable combination make him a genuine top-three winning chance.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.20 · S Cormack

Lowlands is the strongest form and course-fit combination. She beat main rival Hartshorn at Cairns last start on Good ground, closing best from midfield, and her Townsville 1000m record is excellent. The main concern is the step up to Open company, but her proven turn of foot and light weight give her the edge in a genuinely run sprint.

Our price $6.20 · SP $8.00 · Ms L Morrison

Morrison has an outstanding record on him, and his second-up statistics are strong. He was unlucky first-up at Cairns after beginning awkwardly and blundering, so significant improvement is expected here. His northern Open form is excellent, though his lack of Townsville success is a negative.

Our price $6.80 · SP $8.00 · Fiona Sandkuhl

His latest two runs can be excused by wide runs and unsuitable trips, while tonight? today he returns to his pet course with a first-time tongue tie, blinkers back and just 52kg. From barrier 2 he should get every chance to settle closer and exploit the on-pace bias.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.80 · Amy Graham

Touch Base is a genuine class-drop chance after being tested in Brisbane Opens. Blinkers come off and winkers go back on, which mirrors the gear used when he won. The major knock is the rider, who is winless at Townsville, while the lack of local course experience adds some risk.

Our price $3.40 · SP $3.70 · Ashley Butler

Tambo's Sister has the strongest exact-profile case: she has finished top-four in all five starts at Townsville over 1000m, winning twice, and returned from a spell with an encouraging third in BM55 company here on 30 Aug. Second-up improvement is likely and Ashley Butler is a clear confidence boost.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · Amy Graham

Dance For Me Randy is the class runner of the race. His course and distance numbers are durable, but the 61kg impost and the cold recent form of apprentice Amy Graham keep him below the top two in winning probability.

Our price $12.00 · SP $26.00 · N Thomas

She has already won twice at Townsville over the 1000m and was placed in Restricted 55 grade before a reasonable fourth at Mackay last time. In a very fast-run race she can sit just off the speed and use her course/distance knowledge.

Our price $4.20 · SP $9.00 · Aidan Holt

He returned to winning form in a Cairns CL1 last time and brings good fitness into this Class 3. The query is class, but his racing pattern and barrier give him every chance to sit on the speed and go close.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Ms P Edwards

Extra Free deserves value consideration because of his genuine specialist record at Townsville 1000m, with 14 starts producing 2 wins and four further placings.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Mitch Goring

Nolan is a genuine place contender who has been racing at a higher level in recent starts. He won a BM65 at Cairns two back, then held his own in Class 6 company. His Townsville record includes several competitive runs over today's trip. He maps for a nice run from barrier 5 and drops to a handy 58kg. The main issue is his poor 1200m conversion rate, so he is best treated as a place prospect behind the top two.

Our price $11.00 · SP $31.00 · W D'Avila

He won a Gold Coast BM65 over 1200m two starts ago before finishing close up in a Sunshine Coast BM78. He has a genuine 1200m record and should appreciate the Good4 surface.

Our price $4.80 · SP $11.00 · Ms L Morrison

The Impeckable was a last-start BM60 winner over 1400m at Cairns and has a strong distance profile with four wins from nine attempts. Barrier 1 gives a compact run on a drying Good4, while the stable and rider combination is in strong form. The predicted very fast tempo should help him finish off from midfield. The main queries are the 61.5kg topweight and limited Townsville exposure, but his class and distance record rate him the most likely winner.

Our price $6.50 · SP $11.00 · Fiona Sandkuhl

Garinion Righ returned from a spell with a sharp Townsville Class 4 win over 1200m and should improve second-up. Her five-start Townsville record reads four wins and a placing, making her the clear local specialist in the race. The predicted hot tempo should suit her settling just off the speed.

Our price $8.00 · SP $3.70 · R Wiggins

He has failed in both starts here, has never raced at 1400m, and his front-running style comes under threat in a very fast race with three genuine leaders.