Illawarra Grange tips and results

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.60 · Nash Rawiller

The one to beat. Rawiller is a significant booking for a stable he rides 21% for, and the horse maps to sit handy in a race where on-pace runners dominate. Concerns are the 58kg top weight and an awkward enough gate, but his class should prevail.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.50 · Regan Bayliss

Our price $9.50 · SP $16.00 · Chad Schofield

The value of the race. This Waller mare produced a big run at Hawkesbury last start over this trip, showing winning-standard form when second after a quiet debut.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · Jean Van Overmeire

Consistent mare who has placed five times from six starts, including a couple of smart seconds at Kembla Grange. She is drawn perfectly in gate 1 and the hot speed up front should bring her closing style right into it. The drop from 1400-1500m to 1150m is the query, but she looked sharp winning a recent trial here. Place player.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · Rory Hutchings

On-pace gelding who drops back to a sharper 1150m, a trip that should suit after tiring over 1350m. He maps to sit handy and the track's preference for horses on the speed gives him a genuine map edge. The concern is that he contests the lead with two others, so he may have to work.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.00 · Lee Magorrian

The value runner. She closes hard and the hot tempo should suit her, though she is drawn wide in 13 and rises to 1150m for the first time. Each-way.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.90 · Siena Grima

Satono's Shout is the clear class runner, having been competitive in city two-year-old Open company in Victoria, and his best runs there would win this comfortably. Dropping into a country maiden is a big relief and Waller has him fit off a nice trial. The queries are that all his race form is on heavy ground and he wears a lugging bit for the first time. He settles handy, so he must handle the likely hot early tempo.

Our price $9.00 · SP $26.00 · Keagan Latham

Adaptation is the model of consistency in a race full of unknowns: his recent runs have him never far from the winner, and earlier placings at this level show he belongs. He maps to settle third and race on the pace, a plus at this track, and Keagan Latham has a strong record at the venue.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.50 · Ashley Morgan

The most dependable recent form in the race. Now dropping out of BM64 company, drawn ideally in gate three, and with a hot tempo expected up front, he looks set to finish over the top.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · Chad Schofield

She won her maiden smartly and then closed hard for fourth over 1300m at Kembla last time. With three leaders likely to burn each other out, her powerful finish could be decisive, though she gives away a start and is yet to prove herself at this level.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.00 · James McDonald

Drawn to save ground from gate three, but he is a get-back type with no form on a good surface and no Australian form to assess.

Our price $8.00 · SP $9.00 · Dylan Gibbons

Drawn nicely in gate four with an in-form jockey who rides this stable well and is often among the winners. Rising in class and yet to place on a good track, but she is consistent and maps to get the right run.

Our price $10.00 · SP $14.00 · Jess Taylor

Retains the same winning rider for Matthew Smith and has clear upside.

Our price $15.00 · SP $13.00 · Deon Le Roux

Experienced campaigner dropping out of city class and a six-time winner on good ground, which he gets here. He rolls forward and settles handy, a style that suits this circuit, and he has been racing honestly without luck. The concerns are a wide gate and a hot tempo with two leaders engaged, which could leave him chasing late.

Our price $16.00 · SP $21.00 · Claire Ramsbotham

Handles good ground and is well drawn in gate two, so she can settle closer than usual.

Our price $2.80 · SP $2.30 · Regan Bayliss

The clear form pick and the one to beat. He led throughout to win his maiden at Wyong by a wide margin and kept finding to the line, which is exactly the profile that suits a slow-tempo 1150m at this track. Drawn the inside gate with natural speed, he should land in the box seat behind the leader.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.50 · Tyler Schiller

Produced the strongest winning performance in this field at this trip, coming from midfield to score at Beaumont over 1150m. The Hawkes team is going well and he has the ability. The problem is the draw — barrier 9 at a track where inside gates dominate and wide runners have struggled badly. He is also unraced on a good surface and steps into much stronger company. Place claims are strongest.

Our price $19.00 · SP $41.00 · Shannen Llewellyn