Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Monday 12 October 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 8 races at Bairnsdale. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Has run to a winning standard in his last couple of starts, leading at Geelong and Tatura and only being collared late. He draws to sit right on the speed from gate two in a race where the pace looks steady, and the short Bairnsdale straight should help him keep going. The best credentialled mile horse in the field and the one to beat if he gets control.
He lost ground at the start last time and that run can be forgiven. He maps handy of midfield and the give in the ground suits, but the step up to a mile from a wide gate is the query and that is why he sits behind the top pick rather than on top.
The trip and soft ground both look suitable. The knock is his habit of settling well back on a track and in a race that tends to reward horses closer to the speed, so he will need the gaps to appear.
Yeomans gelding who has been around the mark in seven starts, placing on soft and heavy going, and his stable is going at 40% with its runners.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Vespasian | 2 | Damien Thornton | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 14 | Sentaloa | 5 | Jake Noonan | Matt Laurie | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 6 | Welkin Star | 16 | Jason Maskiell | Nicole Dickson | 59.5kg | $61.00 |
| 4th | 4 | The White Bull | 4 | Brad Rawiller | Timothy Eurell | 59.5kg | $91.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Hoffstadt | 15 | Ben Allen | Angus Townley | 57kg | $8.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Ned Kelly | 1 | Jackie Beriman | Lucy Yeomans | 59.5kg | $3.50 |
| 7th | 13 | Passio | 12 | Jett Stanley | Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr | 57kg | $4.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Top Liner | 9 | Patrick Moloney | Alexander Rae | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Flying Riches | 14 | Joe Bowditch | Rachael Cunningham | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Silver Maid | 6 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Sharyn Trolove | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 1 | Hirarkee | 11 | Aaron Sweeney | Reg Manning | 59.5kg | $71.00 |
| 12th | 12 | Mr Biggles Worth | 10 | Logan McNeil | Mitchell Maloney-Stone | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 13th | 11 | Huscarl | 13 | Holly Durnan | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 57kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Rang A Round Up | 8 | Jason Warren | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Levent | 3 | Amy and Ash Yargi | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Hot Spirit | 7 | Simon Zahra | 57.5kg |
Trained by a yard in good form and drawn to land in the first few, he looks the one to beat. Second-up fitness is the only real query.
Weasel Sea has placed in all six starts and brings the most dependable form line, twice runner-up at 1100m including a soft-track second last time. Quick into stride and drawn the inside, he'll be in the firing line throughout. Extending to 1200m for the first time is the query.
Do The Dirty is improving with racing and ran to a near winning standard when second over 1200m last start, settling handy and sticking on gamely. A well-drawn on-pace type in a race likely to be run at a solid clip. Soft ground form is a question mark.
The Matt Laurie yard and the Noonan combination are in strong form. However, he gets a wide gate, was well beaten last start and has no wet-track form, so he's a place selection rather than a confident win.
Count Chevalier is progressing nicely and his last-start third over 1200m was close to a winning standard, a clear step forward with blinkers on. Still lightly raced with upside, well drawn and from a stable that goes well here.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Japanese Moka | 5 | Patrick Moloney | Matt Laurie | 57kg | $2.80 |
| 2nd | 4 | Castelli In Aria | 14 | Carleen Hefel | Enver Jusufovic | 57.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 3 | Weasel Sea | 1 | Dylan Dunn | Jason Warren | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 18 | Shields | 8 | Craig Newitt | Clinton McDonald | 57.5kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Chronic | 16 | Teodore Nugent | Michael Templeton | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Do The Dirty | 9 | Holly Durnan | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Motherduck | 12 | Christopher Pang | Kerry Farrugia | 55.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 17 | Go Go Ruby | 2 | Ben Allen | John R Allen | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Think Sassy | 3 | Lauren Burke | Melanie Bullard | 55.5kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Prestige Lucky | 15 | Matt Jenkins | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Celestra | 6 | Mark W Walker | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Gypsy Storm | 18 | Shannon Roughan | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Count Chevalier | 4 | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Moving Point | 13 | Matt Laurie | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Lady Blanc | 17 | Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Scorching Beauty | 7 | Lachlan King | Dominic Sutton | 56kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Ciphered | 10 | Gavin Bedggood | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Dextrose | 11 | Clifford Brown | 57.5kg |
She maps to settle just off what should be a fast early tempo from barrier 3, and the Hayes yard is going well at Bairnsdale. A consistent mare who is ready to break through, though she is yet to race on a slow track.
Second-up and the run that stands out is a close fourth on soft ground at Wangaratta, the best soft-track effort in this field. She races handily and from barrier 6 should get an economical run just behind the speed without having to lead.
The trainer/jockey pairing strikes at a healthy rate and she looks a readymade sprinting type. The concern is barrier 12 in a race with several confirmed speedsters, which could leave her working early.
However he is on debut and has drawn the outside gate in a 16-horse sprint, and outside barriers have rarely saluted here. The early speed expected makes covering ground even harder.
A consistent on-pace type who should be able to lead from barrier 4, and his trainer/jockey combination has a strong record together with a good strike rate at this track. His recent efforts have been sound, but the concern is a hot early tempo with rivals also pushing forward, and he remains a maiden after six starts.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 14 | Ain't A Bad Day | 1 | Bailey Kinninmont | Matthew Brown | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Charleanor | 2 | Craig Newitt | Michael Huglin | 57.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Reelness | 11 | Teodore Nugent | Paul Worthington | 57.5kg | $19.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Blue Jeans Talk | 10 | Nadia Daniels | Shannon Roughan | 53kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 15 | Full Of Knowledge | 4 | Liana Wood | Dani Walker | 56.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 3 | Inner Thoughts | 6 | Jake Noonan | Rachael Cunningham | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 16 | Zwasp | 14 | Joe Bowditch | Shea Eden | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Ostrom | 3 | Celine Gaudray | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 57.5kg | $2.80 |
| 9th | 6 | Sheeze Ominous | 7 | Carleen Hefel | Monica Croston and Gerrad Gilmour | 57.5kg | $51.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Tyrant Rex | 9 | Damien Thornton | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 57kg | $5.50 |
| Scr | 2 | Graceful Mist | 5 | Jason Maskiell | Nicole Dickson | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Lonnegan | 16 | Matt Laurie | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Big Trouble | 8 | Mark W Walker | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Southern Sway | 12 | Lachlan King | Dominic Sutton | 56kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Tale Of Genji | 13 | Clinton McDonald | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Pragmatic Lady | 15 | S Nichols and H Black | 55kg |
The in-form runner of the field. His last-start third at Tatura, closing hard over a mile, was the strongest recent effort here and suggests the step to 2200m is within reach. He maps to settle handy, which suits Bairnsdale's short straight and the early-card on-pace bias. The queries are the longer trip and two previous unplaced soft-ground runs, but he is the most likely winner.
The proven stayer of the field. He has finished in the placings over 2400m on soft ground and ran well on heavy two starts ago, so trip and conditions hold no fears.
Draws the inside gate and races on the speed, exactly the profile that wins at Bairnsdale. She has been improving, with a close third two starts ago, and was only beaten a few lengths over 2000m last time.
A Bairnsdale specialist over this trip.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Churchill Lane | 7 | Jason Maskiell | Jason Warren | 59.5kg | $3.60 |
| 2nd | 5 | Clydebank Robber | 6 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Susie Wells | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Blanche Bass | 8 | Joe Bowditch | Shea Eden | 57.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Baldoni | 3 | Koby Jennings | Michael Huglin | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Verry Zeductive | 2 | Dylan Dunn | Brett Scott | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Camegitchee | 1 | Jackie Beriman | S Nichols and H Black | 57.5kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Rough Act | 4 | Jake Noonan | Rachael Frost | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 1 | Ask The Captain | 9 | Brad Rawiller | Ernie Francese | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 9th | 6 | Marquisard | 11 | Nathan Punch | Phillip Cafarella | 59.5kg | $51.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Threewinesin | 10 | Lachlan King | Pat Carey and Harris Walker | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Call Me Francis | 5 | Mitchell Leek | 59.5kg |
Won over this course and trip last start, leading throughout, and was a close second in stronger company at Moe on a heavy track the run before. That is the best recent form in the race. Draws the inside gate again, races handy and handles give in the ground, which suits a slow-run staying test.
Drops out of a stronger grade and closed into sixth, beaten only a couple of lengths, last start. Has won here before over the trip and handles soft ground. Top weight is a genuine ask and it is not the most reliable type, but the class drop and solid last-start effort make it a leading hope.
A relentless placegetter who was runner-up in this exact race last start and was beaten less than a length. He rarely wins but rarely runs poorly, and from a good gate he can either lead or sit handy in what shapes as a slowly-run staying contest.
Sits handy and comes off a solid third over 2000m, beaten under two lengths. Improving with racing and drops to a winnable grade, and the projected slow tempo plays to a horse that races on the speed. Only one win from nine and yet to prove itself on a soft track, but the map gives it a genuine each-way chance.
The likely lone leader in a race expected to be run at a slow tempo, which makes it hard to run down, particularly if the track softens further.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Ninyo | 11 | Liana Wood | Aaron Laing | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 7 | Jonquil | 9 | Dylan Dunn | Brett Scott | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Fam Gorman | 8 | Damien Thornton | Clay Beasy | 61.5kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 3 | Just Dance | 1 | Jackie Beriman | Ian Pankhurst | 61.5kg | $4.40 |
| 5th | 6 | Azeola | 7 | Patrick Moloney | Ben Brisbourne | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Acheter | 10 | Jake Noonan | Tony Noonan | 56.5kg | $3.90 |
| 7th | 1 | Precambrian | 2 | Stephanie Hateley | Mark W Walker | 60kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Kaimana Gal | 4 | Christopher Pang | David B Ferguson | 52kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Stole Him | 6 | Lachlan King | Jason Warren | 60kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Larryoctane | 5 | Luke Oliver | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Phoenician | 3 | Ern Ewert | 59kg |
Mr Tickles is the class runner of this field, dropping sharply from much stronger company. He has an excellent record in the wet and won at this trip on heavy ground earlier this winter. He settles handy, which suits Bairnsdale, and his most recent run in a far tougher race was full of merit. The concern is his poor local stable record and a modest strike rate at the trip.
Astari brings a strong recent form line, having won a race of this grade over the trip on soft ground, then closing well in a stronger event. A lightly raced four-year-old with improvement to come, he has a strong local training setup behind him. The query is his get-back pattern, which is a disadvantage at Bairnsdale where on-pace runners dominate sprints.
He drops in class and maps to lead, which suits Bairnsdale.
Heartattack Jack is a course specialist who has won and twice placed at Bairnsdale, and he has a soft-track win to his name. He drops in class and his recent runs at this level have been close up, including a solid fourth here last month. He closes off strongly and the expected fast tempo can suit.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Mr Tickles | 8 | Hayley Spitse | Mitchell Leek | 61kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 6 | Divine Empress | 2 | Dylan Dunn | Jason Warren | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 12 | Heartattack Jack | 10 | Teodore Nugent | Damien Walkley | 55.5kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Astari | 5 | Liana Wood | Mark W Walker | 60.5kg | $4.40 |
| 5th | 4 | Just Remember It | 4 | Ben Allen | Kane Harris | 63kg | $3.90 |
| 6th | 11 | The Cruiser | 12 | Jake Noonan | Sharyn Trolove | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Derelict | 1 | Craig Newitt | Carly Thomas | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Irresistible Sir | 11 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Reg Manning | 59.5kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Free To Play | 3 | Lauren Burke | Melanie Bullard | 55kg | $9.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Moonlight Rustler | 6 | Jason Maskiell | Bill Wood | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Midnight Devil | 9 | Enver Jusufovic | 63.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Bliss Bomb | 7 | Lloyd Kennewell | 60kg |
Won her maiden at Tatura by leading and looks the likely lone speed here at a track where front-runners win a third of sprints and the short straight suits them. Rises sharply in class from maiden company and has not raced on soft, but carries less weight as a three-year-old filly and her stable and rider are firing. Big chance if she controls the tempo.
A consistent placegetter who ran second at this track and trip last start, beaten narrowly in similar company. He is improving with racing and closes strongly.
Won at this track and distance last start with the strongest closing effort in the field and now steps up in grade. She is an improving mare who gets a good midfield draw and has a perfect record with her jockey. The class rise from maiden company and an unproven soft track are the risks, but she is clearly on the up.
A wet-track specialist who won over this track and trip on soft ground earlier in the year and drops in class for this. He handles soft going better than most here and gets a handy midfield draw.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Sub Gauge | 7 | Jake Noonan | David and Coral Feek | 62.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Chip'n'dale | 13 | Melea Castle | Brooke Verwey-Mitchell | 61.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Pull My Finger | 10 | Craig Newitt | Amy and Ash Yargi | 60kg | $4.20 |
| 4th | 13 | Miss Scoop | 5 | Logan McNeil | Mitchell Maloney-Stone | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 10 | I Am Algadon | 8 | Nadia Daniels | Matt Laurie | 57kg | $1.65 |
| 6th | 14 | Aria Electra | 2 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Sharyn Trolove | 55kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Bolocco Bob | 6 | Liana Wood | Dani Walker | 59kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Rock The Bar | 12 | Shannon Roughan | 61kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Le Notre | 1 | Richard Laming | 60.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Luminary Miss | 4 | Dylan Dunn | Dominic Sutton | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Ruby Avenue | 3 | Hayley Spitse | Andrea Leek | 57kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Frederick | 9 | Michael Huglin | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Asmita | 14 | Carleen Hefel | Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | The Birthday Party | 11 | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 58.5kg |
Brings clearly stronger form than most of these, having contested F&M BM70 races at her last two starts and finishing within a few lengths each time. She drops sharply in grade, handles wet ground and can race handily, which suits Bairnsdale's short straight. The wide draw is the obvious query, but the mile start gives her time to slot in. She is the one to beat.
A model of consistency who is nearly always in the finish and drops out of stronger BM62 races here. His best asset is a strong finish, and the late-card Bairnsdale pattern tends to favour horses coming from off the pace. The knock is that he rarely salutes, so he profiles best for the placings rather than the win.
But this is a significant rise from a maiden, he carries top weight and is drawn wide, plus he steps up to the mile for the first time.
The likely fast pace up front should suit her strong closing style, and she has already proven herself here. A wide gate, a backmarker's map and next to no heavy-track form are the concerns.
Improving four-year-old who closed into second over the mile at Swan Hill last start — the strongest finish produced by anything in this field recently. He is back in grade from tougher races, handles soft ground and maps to settle midfield and run on. The wide-ish alley is workable. A genuine each-way chance behind the top pick.
He handles soft ground and tends to finish off strongly, and the late-card pattern can help him.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Torn | 8 | Patrick Moloney | Ben Brisbourne | 60.5kg | $8.00 |
| 2nd | 17 | Spirit Angel | 4 | Nathan Punch | Brian McGrath | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Great Prosperity | 10 | Brad Rawiller | Luke Oliver | 62kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 3 | Rich King | 16 | Jake Noonan | Matt Laurie | 62.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 14 | Shubael | 12 | Hayley Spitse | Mitchell Leek | 56kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Prevention | 15 | Ruby Lamont | Robbie Griffiths | 57.5kg | $3.50 |
| 7th | 8 | Delightful Journey | 9 | Teodore Nugent | Christine Sexton | 61kg | $4.80 |
| 8th | 18 | Preservator | 1 | Dylan Dunn | Ken Fythe | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Cryptic Clue | 18 | Bailey Kinninmont | Matthew Brown | 61kg | $19.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Octane Reign | 3 | Chelsea Thompson | Jason Warren | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Mike's Hope | 11 | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 62kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Sheer Lunacy | 6 | Ben Brisbourne | 62kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Gymkhana | 17 | Ben Allen | Angus Townley | 61.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Washington Lilac | 7 | Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Dane On Tour | 13 | David and Coral Feek | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Prestige Geoffrey | 14 | Matt Jenkins | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Cable De Vega | 2 | Michael Huglin | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Forest Jim | 5 | Clifford Brown | 59kg |
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