Flemington tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · Damian Lane

The 135-day spell is a significant concern, but the Damian Lane booking and Freedman stable connection (36% combination strike rate) signal confidence in her return. First-time tongue tie suggests the stable has identified and addressed an issue. The raw speed is there but the long layoff and poor debut result temper enthusiasm.

Our price $7.00 · SP $17.00 · Jordan Childs

Nikitria is a speculative value play based on elite connections. The Ciaron Maher/David Eustace stable has an outstanding record with first-starters, and Jordan Childs (19% at Flemington) from barrier 3 on the straight course is an ideal setup. The tongue tie first time suggests proactive preparation.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.50 · Beau Mertens

His wet track credentials are genuine with a win on Soft 5 and a placing on Heavy 9. The predicted very fast tempo is ideal for his deep closing style, and barrier 5 gives him good options on the straight course. The low win strike rate is a concern, but his finishing power and improving form make him a strong each-way proposition.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.80 · Lachlan Neindorf

Her soft track record of 1-1-1 from 4 starts is encouraging, and 54kg gives her a major weight advantage. Barrier 3 is ideal on the straight course. However, she has zero wins from 5 starts at 1200m which is a significant concern for win purposes, and she's stepping up in class. A strong place chance but the distance win record limits confidence for the top spot.

Our price $10.00 · SP $16.00 · Logan McNeil

Flying Mikki is a genuine 1200m specialist with 4 wins and 5 placings from 13 starts at the trip. Wet track credentials are strong with a win on Soft 7 and placing on Heavy 9.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.00 · Emily Pozman

His wet track credentials are outstanding with a perfect 2-from-2 record on heavy ground and competitive soft form. The 3kg claim from Pozman effectively reduces his weight burden.

Our price $3.00 · SP $3.50 · Jackson Radley

Her Flemington record is outstanding with 6 placings from 8 starts including a Group 2 third at this distance. The 3kg claim effectively reduces her weight burden significantly.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.80 · Logan Bates

Hot Digity Boom is an improving 4yo who won last start and has shown he handles Flemington with two close seconds on affected tracks. The step to 1600m is the key unknown from a horse whose best form is at 1200-1400m, but his progressive profile and light weight with claim give him a genuine each-way chance. The inside barrier suits the on-pace bias perfectly.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.45 · Damian Lane

However, he has never raced at 1000m and the sharp sprint distance on a straight course first-up from 118 days is a genuine query. Respected but not the top pick.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.00 · Luke Cartwright

His two thirds from two Flemington 1000m starts confirm distance aptitude. The major concern is his terrible soft track record (0 from 7) which is a significant negative.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.90 · Ethan Brown

The Maher stable has her second up after a solid return, and the class relief from Group company to Open is enormous. The 59kg and no Flemington experience are concerns, but her ability gap over these rivals is significant enough to overcome them.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.00 · Tom Madden

The Madden/Purcell combination boasts a 29% strike rate at Flemington. Barrier 3 is ideal on the straight course.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.80 · Michael Dee

Apulia is the undeniable class horse with Melbourne Cup and multiple Group 2 credentials. His Flemington 1600m Listed win confirms track/distance suitability, and his first-up record (2 wins, 2 places from 5) is strong. He's likely to be pressured up front from barrier 2.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Ben Allen

His 11-start Flemington experience provides deep course knowledge, and barrier 1 allows an economical run. While he hasn't won at Flemington 1600m from 6 attempts, his recent Werribee 1600m win and consistent placings suggest he's competitive at this level.

Our price $15.00 · SP $21.00 · Zac Spain

Victorious Spirit is a lightly-raced improver who ran a creditable 3rd behind Observer and Planet Red in Group 2 company last start at only his fourth career start. The massive step to Group 1 is acknowledged but the very fast predicted tempo over Flemington's 450m straight could bring his closing ability into play. The lack of experience and Flemington exposure tempers confidence considerably.

Our price $2.50 · SP $1.85 · Zac Spain

Her 1200m record (3 from 4) and perfect Good track record (3 from 3) are compelling. The class rise to Open level is the key query, but her trajectory is sharply upward and she has the best combination of form, fitness and distance suitability in this field.

Our price $9.00 · SP $26.00 · John Allen

She has crucial Flemington Straight Six experience that most rivals lack. Her second-up record is perfect and John Allen is riding in outstanding form. The main concern is her lack of wins on Good ground (0 from 2), with both wins coming on Soft. However, with recent rain and the track having received 28.8mm in the past week, conditions may suit.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.70 · Jordan Childs

His last-start second at this track and distance is the most directly relevant form line in the race. The Childs/Dabernig combination is strong at 29% strike rate. He's the safest horse but may not have the upside to justify outright favouritism.

Our price $11.00 · SP $14.00 · Dakotah Keane

The 51kg minimum weight is a massive advantage in a race with a 9kg spread, and the expected fast tempo should set up perfectly for his closing style.