Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Friday 6 March 2026
Our top pick won 0 of 8 races at Pakenham. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Tuscaloosa Gem presents as the standout selection with a perfect record at Pakenham including a dominant win at this exact distance last start. The significant weight drop and ideal barrier position from gate 3 provides tactical advantages in what shapes as a fast-tempo race. Despite the class rise, her proven ability and track specialization make her the most reliable winning chance.
Blethyn brings strong recent form including a dominant win last start and fits the second-up pattern well. The barrier draw from 4 is workable, though the top weight and track inexperience present minor concerns.
The inside barrier provides a crucial advantage in the expected fast tempo, while the light weight allows her to be competitive.
The light weight provides a significant advantage, and his previous Pakenham experience, while limited, shows he can handle the track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Blethyn | 4 | Logan Bates | M M Laurie | 58kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 5 | Tuscaloosa Gem | 3 | Emily Pozman | G M Begg | 55.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 7 | Bare To Witness | 2 | Cian Macredmond | Joanne Mugavin | 55kg | $91.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Bold Print | 7 | Jason Maskiell | Rachael Cunningham | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Epic Centre | 5 | Patrick Moloney | Annalise Maragos | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Frose | 1 | Sarah Field | Jamie Barry | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Machinist | 6 | Jackson Radley | M Croston & G Gilmour | 55.5kg | $16.00 |
The inside barrier draw (2) aligns perfectly with the track bias favouring positions 1-6, while her perfect record on Good tracks (3:0-1-2) suits today's conditions. Despite being winless, her reliability and superior speed metrics make her the most likely winner.
Castelli In Aria brings strong consistency with a 67% place rate and proven first-up ability. The inside barrier (3) provides tactical advantage with the track bias, while the strong Neindorf/Jusufovic combination (26% strike rate) adds confidence.
Open Fire represents the classic debut runner with tactical advantages. The rail barrier (1) is perfectly positioned for the inside bias, while bottom weight (55kg) and first-time blinkers suggest stable confidence.
Blue Light Disco offers value as a second-up runner with proven course and distance experience. The Allen/Maher combination provides confidence with their 14% strike rate, while the 48-day gap suggests ideal fitness progression.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Deliberate Ploy | 5 | Jamie Mott | R D Griffiths | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 2nd | 9 | Dama Royale | 2 | Beau Mertens | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Blue Light Disco | 6 | Ben Allen | C Maher | 59.5kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 12 | Savannah Queen | 11 | Luke Cartwright | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Open Fire | 1 | Logan Bates | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 55kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Ole Royale | 9 | Jye McNeil | M, W & J Hawkes | 59kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Fatty Finn | 8 | Zac Spain | Charlotte Littlefield | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 6 | Sirvaldane | 4 | Jackson Radley | J F Moloney | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Castelli In Aria | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | E Jusufovic | 57.5kg | $4.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Parvenu | 7 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Tauren | 10 | Ben Kennedy | M Croston & G Gilmour | 59kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Unriddle | 14 | Melea Castle | Rory Hunter | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Angel Don't Cry | 12 | Rhys Mc Leod | Matt Ivill | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Le Notre | 13 | S B Laming | 57kg |
Despite fitness concerns, the class advantage and proven ability at this distance make her the standout selection.
Topmost broke through for his maiden win last start and shows consistent form with regular placings. The strong Mott/Sandhu combination and tactical barrier draw provide confidence, though the class rise from maiden company presents the main challenge in this competitive field.
Azzacool brings a perfect 1200m record and improving form into this assignment. The advantageous barrier and significant weight relief provide tactical advantages, though limited experience and the class rise from maiden company create some uncertainty against this stronger field.
Hook 'n' Spur offers excellent value after his recent maiden breakthrough at this exact distance. The second-up fitness advantage and perfect 1200m record provide confidence, while the wide barrier presents the main tactical challenge.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Azzacool | 2 | Logan Bates | C Maher | 55kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Hook 'n' Spur | 10 | Jason Maskiell | Gavin Bedggood | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Discreet Point | 4 | Lachlan Neindorf | Niki O'Shea | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Pure Passion | 7 | Emily Pozman | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 55.5kg | $2.30 |
| 5th | 3 | Topmost | 6 | Jamie Mott | Julius Sandhu | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Billund | 9 | Jye McNeil | M, W & J Hawkes | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 9 | First Fifteen | 3 | Ben Allen | C Maher | 57kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Sideline | 1 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 58.5kg | $11.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Ferocious Frankie | 5 | Jett Stanley | T Busuttin & N Young | 57kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Contacted | 8 | Valentin Le Boeuf | E P Francese | 55kg |
The Freedman stable excels with horses stepping up in grade, and the Ben Allen booking suggests confidence. Inside barrier provides tactical advantage, and while the class rise is significant, the raw ability shown in his debut suggests he can handle this level.
The Craig Williams booking is a major positive, and barrier 1 provides the perfect platform. While the class rise is substantial, his winning time and improvement curve suggest he can handle this level.
The Waller/McNeil combination is reliable, and the weight drop helps.
Unbeaten gelding who won his only start impressively at Cranbourne. The Begg stable has an excellent record with first-up runners, and the Jordan Childs booking suggests confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Cafe Au Lait | 4 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 4 | Light Moves | 1 | Craig Williams | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Obvious | 9 | Beau Mertens | G Eurell | 61.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 2 | Victory Tune | 10 | Logan Bates | R D Griffiths | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Redwood Lane | 3 | Ben Allen | A & S Freedman | 59.5kg | $1.90 |
| 6th | 3 | Chillies | 5 | Jordan Childs | G M Begg | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Mahers Landing | 8 | Daniel Stackhouse | G M Begg | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| Scr | 7 | Sabertooth | 2 | Lachlan Neindorf | T Busuttin & N Young | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Organics | 7 | Jackson Radley | T & C McEvoy | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Mykindakandy | 6 | Jamie Mott | C I Brown | 57.5kg |
His strong second at Caulfield Heath last start demonstrates he's in excellent form, and the drop back to 1600m suits perfectly given his winning record at the trip. The inside barrier draw provides tactical advantage, and his Pakenham track experience is a significant positive. The class rise is manageable given his recent form trajectory.
Jareth shapes as the main danger with his impressive third at Cranbourne last start showing he's returned in excellent order. The wide barrier is concerning but his class and current form suggest he can overcome the draw. Quality connections add confidence to the selection.
Sumo Sandy brings the advantage of a perfect record at Pakenham including a win at this exact distance. His recent form shows consistency with close placings, though the trend is slightly declining. The class rise is significant but his proven ability at the track and distance, combined with quality connections, makes him a genuine chance despite the moderate barrier draw.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Jareth | 13 | Declan Bates | C Maher | 58.5kg | $6.50 |
| 2nd | 8 | Factcheck | 7 | Craig Williams | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 58kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 9 | Orovero | 3 | Luke Cartwright | M C Kent | 56kg | $3.80 |
| 4th | 4 | Warrior Within | 11 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 3 | So Brave | 5 | Thomas Stockdale | J Leek Jnr | 60.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Bayou Music | 8 | Jamie Mott | A & S Freedman | 56.5kg | $8.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Falcon Of Malta | 2 | Dakotah Keane | Gavin Bedggood | 58.5kg | $17.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Supreme Sovereign | 12 | Beau Mertens | C J Waller | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Eye For An Eye | 4 | Daniel Stackhouse | J Leek Jnr | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 7 | The Storyteller | 9 | Jye McNeil | J Leek Jnr | 58.5kg | $71.00 |
| 11th | 1 | Shoeless | 1 | Bailey Kinninmont | Shawn Mathrick | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 12th | 10 | Sumo Sandy | 10 | Lachlan Neindorf | T Busuttin & N Young | 58kg | $6.50 |
| Scr | 13 | Sotomayor | 6 | M M Laurie | 57kg |
His 2500m win and strong good track record (2-2-1 from 8) make him ideally suited. The Craig Williams booking adds significant confidence for this class rise.
Her perfect good track record and proven 2500m ability make her a serious threat despite the class rise. The inside barrier could be tactical advantage.
His fourth in Listed company at Flemington shows he can compete at this level, and the good barrier draw provides tactical options.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Bright Legend | 7 | Jye McNeil | Joanne Mugavin | 54kg | $15.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Flamin' Romans | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | C Maher | 54kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Steel Run | 5 | Craig Williams | M C Kent | 54kg | $1.95 |
| 4th | 1 | Garachico | 8 | Daniel Stackhouse | Dominic Sutton | 59kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Ardakan | 4 | Jamie Mott | C Maher | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Tarvue | 2 | Luke Cartwright | J D Sadler | 54kg | $3.80 |
| 7th | 3 | Arugamama | 1 | Zac Spain | A J Gluyas | 54.5kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Suffolk Star | 6 | Patrick Moloney | P A Preusker | 54kg |
Damehood presents the strongest winning chance based on recent form and class drop. Her 2nd placing at Pakenham last start demonstrates track suitability, while the drop from BM74 to BM70 provides a significant class edge.
Betwitchery's perfect record at Pakenham over 1400m makes her a strong threat. The class drop from BM72 combined with proven track and distance credentials provides solid foundation. Recent form shows she's competitive at this level.
Sirius Statement's exceptional Pakenham record (3-2-1 from 7 starts) makes her a serious contender.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Betwitchery | 4 | Ben Allen | L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 4 | Legio Ten | 2 | Jye McNeil | Reece Goodwin | 60kg | $31.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Merchant Flyer | 3 | Jason Maskiell | Gavin Bedggood | 59.5kg | $71.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Yahoo Bar | 7 | Zac Spain | Liam Howley | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 10 | House Of Lords | 16 | Craig Newitt | Peter Gelagotis | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Le Ferrari | 13 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 60kg | $9.50 |
| 7th | 12 | Damehood | 6 | Craig Williams | C Maher | 57.5kg | $3.40 |
| 8th | 7 | Cameron Falls | 1 | Luke Cartwright | Lee & Shannon Hope | 57kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 11 | Sirius Statement | 8 | Jamie Mott | Gavin Bedggood | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 10th | 3 | Pariah Pearl | 11 | Caitlin Hollowood | T Busuttin & N Young | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 11th | 2 | Lim's Bighorn | 9 | Bailey Kinninmont | D Meagher | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 12th | 14 | Rock Them Jools | 12 | Beau Mertens | C J Waller | 58.5kg | $18.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Didn't Miss Many | 15 | Declan Bates | Archie Alexander | 59kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Dollar Chaser | 14 | Bill Papazaharoudakis | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Akicita | 10 | R D Griffiths | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Thorin | 5 | Rhys Mc Leod | Nick Ryan | 58kg |
Houdini presents as the standout selection with a perfect record at this track and distance, winning here last month. The Snitzel gelding is clearly improving and maps well from barrier 1 with Jamie Mott's strong 19% strike rate with trainer Bedggood.
Djockovic offers excellent value despite the class rise. His perfect partnership with Thomas Stockdale (100% strike rate) and recent Pakenham victory provide strong confidence. The Kodiac gelding has proven staying ability and the weight drop helps offset the class increase.
Mr Bannock brings strong recent form including a close second at Sandown-Hillside in similar company. The significant weight relief and addition of winkers provide positive angles, though the class rise and wide barrier present challenges.
The wide barrier is a concern but his class suggests he can overcome it.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Mr Bannock | 10 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | 54.5kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 2 | Houdini | 1 | Jamie Mott | Gavin Bedggood | 60kg | $3.10 |
| 3rd | 6 | Desert Anthem | 12 | Cian Macredmond | Matthew Cumani | 58.5kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 13 | Quite The Lass | 6 | Luke Cartwright | Reece Goodwin | 53kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Mickidabeel | 9 | Koby Jennings | Aaron Laing | 59.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Mozu Marcassin | 3 | Eoin Walsh | Matthew Cumani | 58.5kg | $16.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Lim's Smythe | 14 | Rhys Mc Leod | D Meagher | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Le Troisir | 11 | Jye McNeil | C J Waller | 58.5kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Chocolate Royal | 13 | Dakotah Keane | Pat Carey & Harris Walker | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Djockovic | 8 | Thomas Stockdale | Simon Zahra | 60kg | $13.00 |
| 11th | 10 | Rocket Lad | 2 | Ben Kennedy | Rachael Cunningham | 57.5kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 11 | So Suave | 15 | Craig Williams | C J Waller | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Almago | 5 | Jordyn Weatherley | M C Kent | 52kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Topspin | 4 | Joanne Mugavin | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Ginger Sweet | 7 | Jye McNeil | Peter Gelagotis | 55kg |
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