Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Friday 6 March 2026
Our top pick won 0 of 7 races at Te Aroha. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Laura represents the best winning chance based on her improving form trajectory. Her third placing at Tauranga last start shows clear progression, and as a lightly-raced 3yo filly, she has scope for further improvement. The step up to 2200m suits her breeding (Almanzor), and the Joe Doyle booking adds confidence.
The Frenchman offers each-way value with his solid recent form and excellent connections. His seventh placing last start was competitive, and the George Rooke/Gerard combination provides confidence. The inside barrier draw is crucial at Te Aroha, and the step up in distance may unlock improvement.
While his recent form is modest, he's shown consistency in placings and the step up to 2200m may suit.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Alikat | 3 | Warren Kennedy | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | The Frenchman | 2 | George Rooke | Ms P Gerard | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Guipago | 7 | Matthew Cameron | M H Brosnan | 58.5kg | $6.60 |
| 4th | 1 | Beau Ondago | 6 | Jack Taplin | J Williams | 55.5kg | $17.20 |
| 5th | 7 | Laura | 5 | Joe Doyle | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56kg | $2.60 |
| 6th | 5 | Nerissa | 1 | Hayley Hassman | P A Stevens | 54.5kg | $12.10 |
| Scr | 6 | Spacious | 4 | Tayla Mitchell | Samantha Logan | 55.5kg |
The class drop from Group racing to BM65 is significant, and his recent second at Taupo over 2000m shows he's finding his right level. The Forsman/Kennedy combination adds confidence, and despite the weight burden, his quality should shine through against this field.
The local knowledge advantage is compelling - won his only previous start at Te Aroha over this exact distance. The class drop from Restricted company helps, and his soft track record provides confidence for today's Good 4 surface.
Her recent third at Ellerslie over 2100m was a solid effort, and she's shown she can win at this level.
The narrow second at Ruakaka over 2100m in December shows she's capable at this level. The freshen-up could help, and Joe Doyle's booking suggests stable confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Barcelona | 7 | Corentin Berge | Ms M Falconer | 56kg | $14.90 |
| 2nd | 3 | Mustang Morgan | 2 | Warren Kennedy | Andrew Forsman | 59kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 1 | Jack Crabb | 4 | Sam McNab | S & E Clotworthy | 56.5kg | $2.70 |
| 4th | 7 | Vistown | 1 | Matthew Cameron | J W Bell | 55kg | $7.70 |
| 5th | 4 | Shamwari | 6 | Ryan Elliot | M G Forbes | 57.5kg | $11.60 |
| 6th | 2 | Liquid Fire | 3 | Michael Mc Nab | R R Manning | 59kg | $6.80 |
| 7th | 5 | Blackwaterfoot | 5 | Joe Doyle | S Ritchie & C Murray | 56.5kg | $10.40 |
Boomstruck offers strong each-way value with proven track/distance form including a narrow second. The inside barrier draw provides tactical advantage at tight Te Aroha, while recent form shows consistency.
Petite Rocher brings recent winning form with a narrow second at Wanganui, suggesting readiness to break through.
Deprive presents the strongest winning chance based on consistent form showing 3 placings from 4 starts. The significant weight drop to 55kg, proven track/distance record with a narrow second, and strong connections provide compelling evidence. While first up from a spell, the consistent placing record and trainer patterns suggest readiness.
While winless in 15 starts, the recent placings and quality jockey booking suggest competitive chances.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 15 | Arwen | 10 | R James & R Wellwood | 56kg | $2.50 | |
| 2nd | 12 | Petite Rocher | 4 | Hayley Hassman | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 54kg | $5.10 |
| 3rd | 5 | Boomstruck | 3 | Rory Hutchings | Ms J K Mahoney | 58kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 1 | Captain Roy | 7 | Samantha Collett | P W Lock | 58.5kg | $8.40 |
| 5th | 13 | Indian Falls | 13 | Lynsey Satherley | K W Hawtin | 56kg | $52.30 |
| 6th | 3 | Hey Burg | 9 | Corentin Berge | B K Pinny | 58.5kg | $65.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Van Damme | 11 | Ms P Gerard | 58kg | $25.60 | |
| 8th | 11 | Luv Lace | 8 | Joe Doyle | Ms S P Mynott | 56.5kg | $8.20 |
| 9th | 10 | Flannery | 1 | Tayla Mitchell | Samantha Logan | 55.5kg | $31.40 |
| 10th | 2 | Rarawa Ray | 6 | Jasmine Fawcett | K I Rae | 58.5kg | $43.00 |
| 11th | 14 | Flaming Explosive | 2 | Joe Nishizuka | C R Isdale | 53kg | $47.10 |
| Scr | 4 | Deprive | 12 | Sam McNab | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 55kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Rockman | 5 | Masahiro Hashizume | Team Rogerson | 58kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Palazzo | 14 | S B Marsh | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Honor The Name | 14 | Hollie Wynyard | 56.5kg |
Portland stands out with remarkable consistency, recording 5 placings from her last 8 starts including three second placings in recent outings. Her soft track record (0-3-0 from 5 starts) suits today's Good 4 conditions, and the significant class drop from previous racing provides a clear advantage. The Mitchell-Marsh combination has a solid record together.
Heloisa brings solid credentials with 3 placings from 5 starts and the significant advantage of Warren Kennedy (20% recent strike rate) from the coveted barrier 3. Her first up record (0-0-2 from 2 starts) suggests she can perform fresh, and the significant class drop provides additional confidence despite the lengthy spell.
Emma Twigg represents the classic 'stable confidence' play with Opie Bosson's booking for the in-form Walker-Bergerson stable. The trainer-jockey combination has a solid 12% strike rate from 97 rides with 24 placings.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Emma Twigg | 7 | Opie Bosson | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57kg | $5.30 |
| 2nd | 2 | Portland | 10 | Tayla Mitchell | S B Marsh | 56kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 6 | Lucy | 2 | Samantha Collett | P W Lock | 57kg | $14.30 |
| 4th | 1 | Honor The Name | 5 | Ryan Elliot | Hollie Wynyard | 57.5kg | $6.90 |
| 5th | 8 | Bordeaux Belle | 11 | Matthew Cameron | J W Bell | 57kg | $43.80 |
| 6th | 10 | Flossie | 6 | Hayley Hassman | P A Stevens | 55kg | $27.50 |
| 7th | 3 | Heloisa | 3 | Warren Kennedy | L R Noble | 57kg | $3.30 |
| 8th | 12 | Hello Havana | 4 | Ms K A Hoskin | 57kg | $28.50 | |
| 9th | 14 | Treasure Hunt | 9 | Joe Doyle | Ms S P Mynott | 57kg | $15.50 |
| 10th | 5 | Stranger Times | 12 | Masahiro Hashizume | S & E Clotworthy | 57kg | $20.50 |
| 11th | 11 | Gladiatrix | 13 | Jasmine Fawcett | V A Prendergast | 57kg | $36.40 |
| Scr | 4 | Arwen | 14 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 57kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Ocean Rules | 15 | S B Marsh | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Madam Rocs | 1 | Lynsey Satherley | Debbie Sweeney | 57kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Petite Rocher | 8 | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Luv Lace | 16 | Ms S P Mynott | 57.5kg |
Beetlegeuse represents the standout fresh runner with crucial tactical advantages. Despite the long spell, his first-up placing record and distance form make him the most reliable winning chance.
We Found Love brings the most consistent recent form with strong placings in her last two starts. Her exceptional place strike rate and proven soft track ability make her a reliable each-way proposition. The minimum weight allocation provides a significant advantage in this competitive field.
Chasing Warrior offers exceptional value with the coveted barrier 1 draw at Te Aroha. His proven heavy track ability and strong distance record, combined with the tactical advantage of the inside gate, make him a serious winning threat. The second-up timing should see improvement from his disappointing fresh run.
The wide barrier is concerning but her local track knowledge provides an edge.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Berenhard | 11 | Tayla Mitchell | Ms D Jeffcoat | 57.5kg | $10.40 |
| 2nd | 9 | Perugia | 7 | Opie Bosson | S R Autridge | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 3 | Unison | 13 | Sam McNab | Nick Kneebone | 57kg | $10.50 |
| 4th | 12 | Annie Oakley | 8 | Samantha Collett | Ms D Jeffcoat | 56kg | $25.70 |
| 5th | 10 | We Found Love | 9 | Joe Nishizuka | Ms L Brennan | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 1 | Beetlegeuse | 2 | Joe Doyle | Ms S P Mynott | 60kg | $9.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Still Bangon | 14 | Matthew Cameron | A C Forbes | 56.5kg | $27.60 |
| 8th | 2 | Carisbrooke Castle | 5 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 60kg | $5.30 |
| 9th | 5 | Pure Gold | 4 | Corentin Berge | Ms K A Hoskin | 59.5kg | $30.10 |
| 10th | 8 | Poster Boy | 12 | Jack Taplin | A W Wright | 55.5kg | $34.90 |
| 11th | 4 | Chicago Dream | 10 | Jasmine Fawcett | K I Rae | 59.5kg | $17.10 |
| 12th | 13 | Koro's Princess | 6 | Lynsey Satherley | G K Opie | 55kg | $24.90 |
| 13th | 14 | Singing Soldier | 3 | Masahiro Hashizume | S & E Clotworthy | 54kg | $34.70 |
| Scr | 6 | Chasing Warrior | 1 | Hayley Hassman | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 57kg |
Dujardin represents the standout form horse dropping significantly in class after running close-up in Listed and Open company. Despite the wide draw, her class edge should prove decisive.
Astrum brings improving form and the crucial barrier 1 advantage at Te Aroha where inside draws are gold. Her recent third was a clear step forward, and the Savabeel mare should appreciate the step up to 1600m. The inside gate allows tactical flexibility on this tight track where position is everything.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Ballbeena | 9 | Corentin Berge | P S Richards | 56.5kg | $27.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | The Spaniard | 3 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 58kg | $4.10 |
| 3rd | 5 | Chaplin | 2 | Ryan Elliot | Ms P Gerard | 58kg | $49.20 |
| 4th | 3 | I Dunnet | 5 | Jack Taplin | K I Rae | 55kg | $24.90 |
| 5th | 11 | Dare You | 12 | Tayla Mitchell | S N Rees | 55.5kg | $50.50 |
| 6th | 12 | Dujardin | 15 | Michael Mc Nab | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 56kg | $2.70 |
| 7th | 2 | Neffu | 6 | Joe Doyle | Ms L Anderson | 58.5kg | $9.70 |
| 8th | 10 | Allaces | 8 | Lynsey Satherley | L R Gussey | 56.5kg | $68.70 |
| 9th | 7 | Astrum | 1 | Masahiro Hashizume | K & B Kelso | 56.5kg | $4.90 |
| 10th | 1 | I'm Quinn | 7 | Hayley Hassman | G J Old | 56.5kg | $30.10 |
| 11th | 13 | Pretty As Sin | 13 | Rory Hutchings | G Richardson & R Norvall | 56kg | $13.30 |
| 12th | 6 | King Shamus | 10 | Courtney Barnes | Nick Kneebone | 58kg | $65.80 |
| 13th | 14 | Eazmil | 14 | Samantha Collett | C R Isdale | 56kg | $53.90 |
| Scr | 9 | Van Pelt | 16 | T W Mitchell | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Shoebill | 4 | Andrew Forsman | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Singing Soldier | 11 | S & E Clotworthy | 58kg |
Rob's Mistake presents the strongest winning chance based on recent track success and improving trajectory. Her dominant maiden win at Te Aroha demonstrates track suitability, while her 1600m record and soft track form align perfectly with conditions. The class rise is concerning but her upward trend suggests she can handle the step up.
Hero Of War brings fitness and elite connections second up. Warren Kennedy's booking signals confidence and his recent form is excellent. The inside barrier is crucial at Te Aroha's tight circuit. However, limited experience and poor second up statistics create some doubt despite positive connections.
While Opie Bosson's booking and previous Te Aroha success are positives, her inability to win beyond maiden level and poor 1600m record suggest she may struggle to justify favouritism in this company.
Listening offers value as a consistent place getter who has shown form at this track and distance.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Victorious Warrior | 10 | Matthew Cameron | D R Wiles | 57.5kg | $8.20 |
| 2nd | 9 | Rob's Mistake | 11 | Joe Doyle | Hanna Orting & Sophia Nolan | 57.5kg | $9.60 |
| 3rd | 12 | Lagisquet | 1 | Corentin Berge | Ms J K Mahoney | 56kg | $22.20 |
| 4th | 1 | Small Town Girl | 9 | Michael Mc Nab | R R Manning | 59kg | $13.70 |
| 5th | 8 | Hero Of War | 3 | Warren Kennedy | Barbara Kennedy | 57.5kg | $6.10 |
| 6th | 11 | Listening | 7 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 56.5kg | $5.40 |
| 7th | 5 | Unwritten | 6 | Opie Bosson | Ms D Logan | 58kg | $4.20 |
| 8th | 3 | Midori Burly | 4 | Tayla Mitchell | T W Mitchell | 58kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Bamboozle | 2 | Samantha Collett | Maxim & Samantha Van Lierde | 59kg | $27.60 |
| 10th | 7 | Dragon Blossom | 8 | Hayley Hassman | Ms P Gerard | 55.5kg | $13.70 |
| 11th | 6 | Syracuse | 5 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms D Logan | 57.5kg | $16.50 |
| Scr | 4 | Timbuctoo | 12 | Rory Hutchings | Team Rogerson | 59kg |
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