Geelong tips and results

Our price $2.86 · SP $3.90 · Brad Rawiller

He maps to settle forward from midfield and will be strong at the 400m, exactly what Geelong heavy requires. Despite being winless, his consistency and wet-track credentials make him the most likely winner.

Our price $12.50 · SP $4.00 · Ben Allen

Calexpo is a debutant with limited data, but the Hayes stable and Ben Allen at Geelong are major positives. Barrier 2 allows a forward run, and gear changes may sharpen focus.

Our price $6.00 · SP $13.00 · Beau Mertens

Stellar Cipher drops sharply from Listed grade to a Maiden, bringing the best exposed form in the race. Barrier 5 allows an ideal on-speed run, essential on Geelong's heavy surface. The key query is the dry-only form but class and fitness from the Waller stable outweigh unknowns.

Our price $15.00 · SP $6.00

Explosive Magic caught the eye with a narrow 2nd at Swan Hill on Soft 6 after a spell, suggesting sharp improvement.

Our price $25.00 · SP $26.00 · Sam Kennedy

Zaac is a debutant with no track record, but the gear changes (nose band and tongue tie) suggest the stable has identified a need for assistance at the first start. The light weight of 55kg is a plus on a heavy surface, and barrier 7 is favourable. A speculative each-way investment.

Our price $1.40 · SP $1.20 · Jamie Mott

The formline is excellent for this maiden, and from barrier 3 he can settle on or near the lead, which is the preferred pattern at Geelong on heavy. Jamie Mott is riding in top form and the Freedman stable knows how to prepare horses for these conditions.

Our price $3.00 · SP $4.00 · Harry Coffey

Aqua Storm is the most consistent runner in the field, placing in all 3 career starts. From barrier 2 on heavy ground at Geelong, expect him to settle on pace and be in the leading group turning for home. The slow tempo suits his tactical speed. Second up from a spell, he showed good form at Swan Hill and should handle the rise to 1425m. The main query is heavy track performance, but his soft track placings give confidence. The clear horse to beat.

Our price $4.00 · SP $1.90 · Damien Thornton

The step back to 1425m suits, and the small field should help him find a nice midfield spot from barrier 7. The stable has good form with second-up horses, and while his record second-up isn't strong, the heavy track advantage here outweighs that concern. A strong each-way chance.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Sam Kennedy

Velvet City finally broke through for a career-best placing at Geelong on Heavy 9, finishing 3rd in a similar maiden. From barrier 3 and carrying just 56.5kg (with jockey claim), he is well positioned to roll forward and take advantage of the on-speed bias.

Our price $15.00 · SP $14.00 · Zac Moore

Dark Harmony has been racing consistently and his last start 4th on Heavy8 at Casterton was encouraging, beaten just over a length. He has placed on heavy before and barrier 8 gives him a chance to settle midfield. Each-way appeal.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Thomas Stockdale

Thurmond is a proven heavy track performer and represents solid each-way value. His record on heavy includes two wins and a second, highlighted by a BM62 victory on Heavy 9. He ran well at Geelong over 2400m on Soft 5 last start and stays the trip. The main concern is the wide barrier 16 on heavy – he will need to be ridden aggressively to find a forward spot.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.80 · Declan Bates

Champagne Jenni drops to BM62 after racing in BM70 company. Barrier 4 allows an on-pace berth. The second-up record is weak, but she looked fit enough first-up at Swan Hill. With Declan Bates repeating the ride, she profiles as the most complete horse for this assignment.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.00 · Thomas Stockdale

Caleana comes off two excellent provincial runs, including a close second at Geelong over 1700m on Soft5. Barrier 2 is a huge asset on a heavy Geelong surface where on-pace runners dominate. His lone heavy start was a poor run at Sale 12 months ago, but he's improved considerably since. If he handles the going, he rates as a major threat at each-way value.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Luke Cartwright

Volatile has been racing in terrific consistent form, placing in 4 of his last 5 starts including a narrow 2nd and close 3rd in this grade. Barrier 4 gives him a great chance to settle in the first few at the 400m, a key winning profile at Geelong on heavy.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Declan Bates

Gunado comes off a game second placing in the same grade on a Heavy 8, confirming he handles testing conditions. He has placed in both heavy runs and is building a strong profile. However, the wide barrier (15) is a significant disadvantage at Geelong on heavy, where inside draws are king. Best as a place chance.