Hamilton tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $2.80 · Will Gordon

Just My Lot has obvious class, dropping from Listed grade to a maiden, but she must overcome a genuine Heavy10 query and poor previous form over 1200m. She maps to be prominent and has a top jockey. She is a top-three chance if she handles the ground.

Our price $4.60 · SP $7.50 · Jack Hill

French Palace brought obvious improvement to her second start, finishing a close third at Mildura after a modest debut. The stable/jockey record and her light weight make her the main threat to Boss Boy. The unknown factors are Heavy 10 and the rise to 1600m, but her upward trajectory gives her solid place claims.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Tom Madden

Winter Arc is an unknown debutant in a very weak maiden. Heavy ground is always a query for first starters, but the inside draw and small field give him a genuine chance to run into the placings without needing a clear class edge.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Will Gordon

Improving locally trained gelding who stepped up to 2050m last start and finished third on Soft 7 after two poor runs. Will Gordon is 20% at Hamilton and retains the ride; barrier 4 suits the on-pace pattern. Heavy ground is a query but the distance rise and stable intent appear favourable.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.20 · Linda Meech

His Heavy 10 record (1 win, 3 placings from 10) and last-start second at Hamilton fit the wet-track profile perfectly. Barrier 4 allows a handy, economical run in the expected slow tempo. While his win percentage is modest, this Restricted 56 field lacks a stronger rival, making him the most likely winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Jack Hill

Starry Desert completes the top three. The inside gate and Jack Hill's strong Hamilton record are positives, and his close fifth over 2218m two runs back shows enough stamina. However, he was poor last start and has not placed on Heavy.

Our price $8.50 · SP $8.50 · Will Gordon

He has placed over 2200m, has a placing on Heavy from a limited sample, and draws barrier 3 in a race expected to be run slowly. He represents each-way value behind the main chances.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.50 · Will Gordon

Flying Shelby arrives off a last-start 1600m maiden win at Coleraine on Soft 5 and was fourth over today's track and distance on Heavy 10 in July. He maps on the speed and Will Gordon is strong at Hamilton. The main queries are 60kg and the outside draw, but in a race with no genuine leader he can cross, control and sustain.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Zac Moore

She has already won over 1600m on Soft 7 and maps prominently from barrier 5 with only 52.5kg. Her only heavy-track run was below best, but her current form, weight and on-speed profile make her a strong winning threat.

Our price $10.00 · SP $8.00 · Jade Smith

Kawhia is the clear wet-track specialist of the race, with 13 heavy starts producing one win, three seconds and a third. He was second over this exact course and distance on Heavy 8 in April. Since then he has mixed over jumps, including a fall last start, so the flat form is a negative. If Jade Smith can get him into the first half from barrier 8, his proven Hamilton Heavy record gives genuine each-way appeal.

Our price $4.00 · SP $7.00 · Melissa Julius

State Of Maine has the strongest specific profile for this Hamilton Heavy 1400m race. She has two wins and two placings from nine starts at the exact track and distance, and her heavy-track record includes two victories. From barrier 3 she should settle on the speed in a slowly-run race, which is the pattern that wins here.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Sarah Field

She was competitive on wet tracks two starts back, finishing 3rd at 1400m on Soft 7 and 4th on Heavy 9 at Mt Gambier, before a forgive run in higher Rest 64 grade on Heavy 10. Back in Restricted 56 with 54.5kg and a good barrier, she should settle much closer under the expected slow tempo.

Our price $4.80 · SP $9.50 · Jack Hill

Rockcliff is the form anchor. The wide gate and top weight are negatives, but he has enough tactical speed to hold a forward spot.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Sarah Field

The Last Judgement is the best value of the main three. His two heavy-track seconds in June, including a narrow defeat in the same Donald race Rockcliff won, give him a genuine winning chance. The last-start 9th is a concern, but he is better suited by genuine wet ground than Soft 7.

Our price $10.00 · SP $26.00 · Jason Webb

She has won at 1100m before and placed on heavy ground, while barrier 4 gives her a favourable map.