Eagle Farm tips and results

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Bella Youngberry

Moonshine Run presents the strongest raw form of any runner in this field - a 38% career strike rate, a win last start and a stellar record on Good ground (4 wins from 10). Barrier 1 is a genuine plus on a Good Eagle Farm surface, and with a slow, one-leader tempo expected, her likely forward-midfield settling position sets up perfectly.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.70 · Ben E Thompson

Thinking Gold is the most reliable placegetter in the race, with a strong record on Good ground and back-to-back competitive efforts. Ben Thompson is riding at a career-best strike rate and the barrier suits a forward tactical run in a slow-tempo affair. The knock is a modest win strike rate - she often runs minor placings rather than saluting.

Our price $7.00 · SP $14.00 · Jasper Franklin

Tapildoodledo is the one horse in this field with a genuine, recent win over today's exact conditions - Eagle Farm, 2400-ish metres, Bench 78, Good ground - beating Captain Maverick and Chillaxing in the process. Eagle Farm's Good-track data rewards exactly this profile: recent winners with track form. The 2.5kg weight rise is the key vulnerability, but the class and course form are compelling enough to make him the most likely winner on form.

Our price $5.00 · SP $2.70 · Cejay Graham

Consistent to a fault, he lacks a killer turn of foot but should be competitive throughout, particularly if the fast tempo sets up for finishers holding a forward position.

Our price $6.00 · SP $15.00 · Jace McMurray

Invahir arrives fresh off a narrow win at Toowoomba and boasts a durable, prolific racing record with strong Good-track affinity.

Our price $2.60 · SP $4.20 · Michael Rodd

Dropping into weaker company first-up, the class edge should tell even from a modest gate, provided fitness holds after a long break.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.30 · Ben E Thompson

Boonie Boom is unbeaten from a single start, winning nicely at this same track and distance for a red-hot Gollan/Thompson combination. Second-up and clearly progressive, she looks the biggest threat to the smarter, more experienced Star Of Jamaica, though the step in grade remains unproven.

Our price $6.50 · SP $11.00 · Jace McMurray

Touch Base has raced only twice for a win and a close second, showing genuine ability at a lower level.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.50 · Emily Lang

Tale Of Tass is another unbeaten Gollan-trained filly, taking out a Rockhampton maiden impressively before stepping up sharply in grade today. Considering the stable is sending down two progressive types in this race, this second string looks overpriced relative to its more fancied stablemate and represents value if the promise translates to town company.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00

A high-strike-rate, professional galloper with strong recent placings and a genuine winning habit. The wide barrier is a real query on a track that rewards forward position, but the horse's class and consistency offer each-way insurance regardless of gate luck.

Our price $3.80 · SP $6.00 · Jace McMurray

Mean Approach arrives in career-best form, having won successive starts including one at Eagle Farm only eight days ago. Strong course form (2-1-1 from 8), a workable barrier and the ability to sit forward suit the Good-track bias toward prominent, in-form runners. The step to 1400m is a query but he has placed at this trip previously and looks the most reliable formline in the race.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.80 · Ben E Thompson

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.10 · Ryan Maloney

Automne Tree was narrowly beaten by Livalittle last start and looks the obvious swing type into this field. Placed in three of last four and rising minimally in class, this is a leading each-way and place threat with genuine winning claims.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.50 · James Orman

High Dandy drops significantly in grade after competing against much stronger Class 6/Open company, including a narrow loss at this same track and distance last campaign. The class relief is significant, though barrier 13 is a real query on a track showing outside barriers underperform. Still, the horse's placings against much tougher opposition make him a threat if he can overcome the gate.

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.90 · Ben E Thompson

Cosmo Centaurus boasts a rare first-up strike rate of 75% (3 from 4) and returns fresh with in-form hoop Ben Thompson aboard, who has won 25% of his last 20 rides. Top weight and barrier 8 are the only real drawbacks, but the fitness-first profile and jockey form outweigh them.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Ryan Maloney

Ryan Maloney partners a horse he has already won on, and barrier 5 sets up nicely under the predicted moderate-tempo, one-leader shape. The query is a winless run stretching back to November, but the placings have remained honest throughout and a change of luck is due.

Our price $6.50 · SP $14.00 · Jace McMurray

Back-to-back placings at a higher class level (Listed, Open) suggest this drop back to Class 6 is well within reach.

Our price $9.50 · SP $11.00 · Jag Guthmann-Chester

Mister Bianco drops sharply in grade after a stretch of Open and Bench 90 company, a scenario that has produced sharp form reversals before. His second-up record of 2 wins from 3 is a strong signal for today, and barrier 2 sets up a clean run under a moderate tempo.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Taylor Marshall

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Emily Lang