Riccarton Park tips and results

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.80 · Hamish Mc Neill

He won the 4200m Te Aroha Hurdle last spring and has a solid soft-track record, including a close second in the 3200m Te Rapa Hurdle in June. His last-start fifth behind Affordable over 3100m looks less impressive, but stepping back up to marathon distance is a major positive.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.20 · Lily Sutherland

He's Lucid completed the trifecta behind Wire Rope and Belzoni last week, and his task is made easier by a 6kg weight drop from 60kg to 54kg. He has already won over 1400m on Soft7 and maps kindly from barrier 3. The main caveat is the jockey is not declared in the data, which tempers confidence; however, his weight-adjusted form brings him into the finish and he rates a clear place chance.

Our price $12.00 · SP $26.00 · Abdul Najib

Express Coup is overlooked because of the 1400m query and top weight, but the mare has been in consistent form: a Soft5 win, near-miss on Heavy10, and a Riccarton third in her last four starts. Her soft-track record is strong and she maps well from barrier 4.

Our price $3.20 · SP $5.60 · Kelly Myers

She handles heavy and soft ground, is proven over 1600m and maps well from barrier 2. The main concern is a lack of Riccarton experience, but her class edge and upward trajectory make her the most likely winner despite sharing favouritism.

Our price $8.50 · SP $11.60 · Bridget Grylls

Mininjagirl is the value runner because she comes into the race with two straight 1600m wins, including a victory at Riccarton on Soft7. She is well treated with 54kg and has the wet-track profile to handle Soft6 conditions.

Our price $3.90 · SP $6.20 · Kelly Myers

Another Won't Hurt is the form horse, arriving on the back of consecutive BM75 wins over 2100m and 2200m on testing ground. Kelly Myers retains the ride and has two wins from three partnerships. The main queries are a first visit to Riccarton and a rise to 58kg, but his stamina, fitness and recent race class make him the most likely winner despite those negatives.

Our price $8.00 · SP $17.30 · Amber Riddell

Enterprise Gem has the profile of a value runner: she was third in the same Riccarton race last week, won a BM75 on heavy in July, and has placed over 2000m on soft. Her lack of a Riccarton win is the main knock, but map, distance and wet-track credentials make her worth an each-way ticket.

Our price $4.80 · SP $10.70 · Bridget Grylls

Most reliable winning profile in the race: a consistent 7yo who has won this exact Riccarton 1800m Open in March, boasts a 37% place rate on Soft and has placed in five of his last six. He maps favourably from barrier 5 and the Grylls/Wilson combination is a positive. Assessed as the most likely winner.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.20 · Jack Taplin

Prince Alby ticks the key Riccarton Soft boxes: a past 1800m winner here, four soft-track wins and a weight advantage after racing off 53kg in the same G3 last week. Barrier 1 should let Jack Taplin slot in handy, and the stable/jockey combination has a 20% strike rate. Consistency is the concern, but this is a strong place proposition.

Our price $5.50 · SP $15.30 · Triston Moodley

Don Pauly is the most reliable winning chance. He possesses the strongest soft-track profile in the field, has placed in five of his last six starts, and finished third in the key Riccarton form race behind Valley King and Bak De Ace last month. The rise to 1800m helps, the inside barrier gives him every chance to settle in the first half, and his 2000m near-miss proves he sustains a strong gallop.

Our price $9.00 · SP $22.50 · Ashlee Strawbridge

Pretty Fly is the clear value runner. She comes off a last-start 2200m win, has placed at both Riccarton appearances, and carries an excellent soft-track place record. The drop back to 1800m should suit a mare with her staying strength, while the 54.5kg lightweight and barrier 9 allow her to settle just behind the speed.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.40 · Leah Hemi

Maria Pilar is a consistent mare who has placed in two of her three starts on Soft tracks and was a close second in a BM75 over 1400m in June. Her last run over 1200m on Heavy9 was below her best, but the return to 1400m and the inside draw should help her settle closer.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.30 · Sarah Macnab

Guzzler is the clear form horse, arriving on the back of consecutive wins including a BM65 over today's course and distance. The step up to BM75 is a query but he drops in weight, retains an in-form jockey who knows him well, and handles cut in the ground. Barrier 4 and a 5-day back-up from a win give him every chance to confirm the superiority he showed over several of these last week.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.50 · Triston Moodley

Hooray For Harry is the model of consistency around Riccarton, with six top-two finishes from 11 attempts at today's 1200m. He has placed in similar BM75 company on both Soft and Heavy tracks and is drawn to land handy from barrier 2.

Our price $7.50 · SP $16.30 · Jack Taplin

Her broader wet-track stats are solid and she maps kindly from barrier 5. The main concern is a 76-day freshen-up and an ordinary first-up strike rate, but her fresh record at Riccarton suggests she runs well regardless.