Pakenham Synthetic tips and results

Our price $4.60 · SP $3.20 · Ethan Brown

That combination of stable confidence and class relief cannot be ignored. However, the form evidence is thin: one run 9 lengths adrift, 275 days between runs, an outside gate and a jockey without a win from 46 rides for the stable.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.50 · Daniel Stackhouse

Three starts read 9-5-4. Clear each-way value.

Our price $4.20 · SP $11.00 · Jye McNeil

The value threat and arguably the best raw formline in the race. Against her is the 0 from 3 record, the plain Sale maiden effort, and no synthetic exposure.

Our price $3.20 · SP $6.50 · Beau Mertens

The most reliable runner in a shallow maiden. Barrier 1 in a moderate-tempo, no-genuine-leader race lets Mertens take a box-seat and be within the first three to six at the 400m, the winning profile here.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.20 · Teodore Nugent

The most improved runner in the race. The 1400m is untried but her staying-on pattern suggests the extra ground helps rather than hurts. Barrier 7 permits a covered midfield run.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · Jye McNeil

Bivvy ran a genuine third on debut at Moe on a Heavy 9, beaten under four lengths, and has been given twenty days to freshen before this substantial step up in trip. The retention of Jye McNeil is meaningful, and barrier three maps him for the economical box-seat run this circuit rewards. The reservations are real - one start, an untested surface and a 383m rise in distance - but second-up improvement from a debut placegetter is one of the more reliable maiden patterns.

Our price $9.00 · SP $20.00 · Joe Bowditch

She maps among the likely leaders from barrier 5 carrying the minimum weight with a rider who strikes at 12 percent here.

Our price $15.00 · SP $26.00 · Melea Castle

With three genuine leaders expected to generate a very fast tempo, her closing speed profile is exactly what this shape rewards.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.90 · Nadia Daniels

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Sam Kennedy

A model of consistency dropping sharply in grade, which makes her the most reliable placegetter in the race.

Our price $9.00 · SP $15.00 · Luke Nolen

The map horse of the race. Barrier one and Luke Nolen give him the cheapest run in the contest and this track rewards runners travelling economically inside the first six at the 400m. His 1200m record of 6: 1-3-1 and synthetic record of 3:0-1-1 show he is competitive under these exact conditions, including a third at BM56 over the trip at Ballarat Synthetic.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.50 · Zac Spain

The class-drop angle in the race. The fast predicted tempo and the recent Pakenham Synthetic pattern favouring backmarkers both help her. Against her are the wide gate, the complete absence of synthetic form and a bare record of two wins from twenty-two.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Brad Rawiller

The overlay of the race. Worth an each-way interest.

Our price $3.40 · SP $6.00 · Jett Stanley

The most credible blend of proven course-and-distance ability and hidden last-start merit. On 20 July she finished sixth in a Bench. Third up, dropping in grade, drawn two, she maps to travel handy with cover and be balanced at the 400m.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.60 · Luke Nolen

Her form is honest — a placing in four of five starts and two close efforts at 1600m — and she won here on the synthetic three weeks ago. Pakenham Synthetic punishes wide-drawn runners forced to expend energy early.

Our price $4.60 · SP $16.00 · Logan Bates

The value angle in the race. He is drawn to save ground in barrier 6 and his rider is in strong form for the stable.

Our price $4.60 · SP $3.70 · Jamie Mott

Our price $8.00 · SP $20.00 · Emily Pozman

The overlay of the race. Her synthetic and distance credentials are the strongest raw numbers here — 11 synthetic starts for 3 wins, 15 starts at 1400m for 4 wins and 2 seconds, and a win over this exact track and distance.