Geelong tips and results

Our price $3.00 · SP $4.80 · Jett Stanley

The most credible profile in a weak staying maiden. The Geelong heavy read rewards wet-proven, handy runners - he maps to be top-three at the 400m from gate 6 in a slow-tempo staying race. Blinkers first time and Stanley continuing aboard for a 20% strike-rate stable combination adds intent. The 2435m is unproven but breeding and run pattern suggest it suits.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.50 · Campbell Rawiller

Barrier 2 and an on-speed map match the winning pattern of settling 1-3 and being top-three at the 400m.

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.35 · Steven Vella

The soundest form line in a shallow maiden. Geelong Heavy statistics reward proven wet form and handy positioning, and he has already shown he handles the surface here. Barrier 8 and the 1425m step-up are the queries, but he is the most likely winner on evidence.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.10 · Declan Bates

Assessed entirely on proxies given no race history. The Maher operation combined with Declan Bates is one of the most productive pairings in Victorian provincial racing at 18%, and Bates strikes at 17% at Geelong. The 56kg allowance is a tangible help in the mud, and the barrier is workable. Place is the sensible risk-adjusted play.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.40 · Teodore Nugent

Blinkers go on first time and he maps midfield from gate 7.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Jamie Mott

With three Heavy starts she is the most wet-exposed runner in a field of unknowns, she maps handy from gate 10, and Mott wins at 15% here.

Our price $3.30 · SP $1.55 · Michael Dee

Clearly the classiest runner in the race - a Listed placing on Soft 6 and a record of 4 starts for 1 win and 3 placings is form no rival matches.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Jye McNeil

The drop from Bench. What holds him to third is conversion: 1 win from 11 starts, 59kg on a bog, gate 7 and a midfield map at a track where every Heavy winner in the sample was handy at the 400m. Safe for the placings, harder to see winning.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Jamie Mott

The most reliable form line in the race and a horse who has already been competitive at this track and trip.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Cory Parish

The problem is entirely tactical: barrier 13 on a Heavy 9 at a tight, turning provincial track where being top-three at the 400m is the dominant winning pattern.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · Teodore Nugent

He is one of the few genuinely wet-proven runners here, with a Heavy 8 maiden win and a Heavy 10 BM62 placing from just two attempts on the surface, and he draws barrier 3 with the map putting him on the speed — the exact profile the track read rewards.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Jamie Mott

The Freedman stable and Mott, a 15% strike-rate rider here, is a positive booking, and barrier 7 lets him take up the handy position Heavy Geelong demands.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Michael Dee

The concerns are genuine: she is first up after 167 days with no heavy-track experience, and her form was compiled in modest company.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Caitlin Hollowood

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.00 · Zac Moore

A genuine class drop-in with proven wet credentials - two of her four heavy-track starts have produced wins. Barrier 10 sits in the band the Geelong bias mildly favours and 57.5kg is a workable weight. The apprentice booking and one flat heavy run at Canterbury temper enthusiasm slightly.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.00 · Will Gordon

The Geelong specialist of the race with a track and distance record of nine starts for two wins and three placings, and a wet record of four starts for a win and three placings. He has been beaten under a length and a half in each of his last three runs here, two of them on rain-affected ground. The reservation is a career strike rate of five wins from 44 - he finds the line but rarely puts his head in front.