Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Sunday 16 August 2026
Our top pick won 5 of 6 races at Ballarat. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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The class act of the race by a wide margin. Bold Soul won an Open handicap at Flemington over 2800m at his latest and had previously run 2nd and 3rd in the same grade, form miles above a country maiden hurdle. The Payne/Gordon combination is the strongest in the race. The only risk is jumping inexperience, but on raw ability and staying class he should win comfortably if he clears the obstacles.
Khor has placed three times from five heavy-track runs and brings solid staying credentials including a BM84 win at Sandown and a Listed 4th at Warrnambool on Heavy 10. He maps as the likely leader from barrier 3, and with a slow tempo forecast he can control this and be prominent at the 400m. Also a first-time jumper, which caps confidence, but the Wilde/Parker jumps combination is a strong tick.
Omeo has completed both his hurdle starts and ran 4th in a Maiden Hurdle over 3300m at Coleraine in July, which is real form for this grade. His latest was a tailed-off effort against better in an open Hurdle, so the class drop back to maiden company helps.
She also gets the sole weight relief in the race at 67.5kg.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Bold Soul | 1 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 69.5kg | $1.30 |
| 2nd | 2 | Khor | 3 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 69.5kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 7 | Flying Witness | 2 | Micheal Casey | Brett Scott | 67.5kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Merry Old Soul | 5 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 69.5kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Turntyne | 7 | David Mulcahy | Amy McDonald | 69.5kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Red Aces | 4 | Bradley Shane Rantall | R J Blacker | 69.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4 | Omeo | 6 | Tom Ryan | Nathan Newton | 69.5kg |
The most reliable form line in a weak Maiden Hurdle. Gripping has placed at all four jumping starts (4:0-3-1) and steps back to maiden grade off a genuine second over this exact 3400m trip in open Hurdle company on Heavy 8 — the strongest piece of form on offer. His Heavy record of 12:1-4-5 and proven staying capacity fit a slow-tempo Heavy 9 staying race where the 400m position edge dominates. He maps forward from barrier 8. The obvious risk is chronic seconditis, but at this class he should not need to improve.
Honest, hard-fit stayer who brings the best bare distance form line in the race — a third over this 3400m trip at Warrnambool in Bench. 67 grade. Backs up seven days after a fourth in the Casterton Maiden Hurdle and is a proven Heavy performer at 10:2-0-2. Maps to lead or race handy, which is exactly the profile that wins on this surface. Jumping remains the query at 3:0-0-1, but the Wilde/Parker combination and the fitness edge make him a solid place proposition.
The reservation is fundamental rather than trivial: he has never jumped in a race, his only Heavy start produced a 15-length beating, and 3400m is uncharted.
Genuine value on a course-and-distance line no rival can match — second here over 3400m on Heavy 8 in a Maiden Hurdle beaten half a length, carrying today's 69.5kg. His jumps record of 5:0-2-0 confirms competence over obstacles, and he returns fresh from 35 days with the inside gate.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Gripping | 8 | Jordan Hart | Peter Lafferty | 69.5kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 4 | Hula Beat | 9 | Martin Kelly | Andrew Bobbin | 69.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Sunday Buzz | 6 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 69.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Bismarck | 4 | Will Gordon | Taige Weir | 69.5kg | $3.10 |
| 5th | 7 | Step In Time | 5 | David Mulcahy | Amy McDonald | 69.5kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Zedwilldo | 7 | Micheal Casey | Brett Scott | 69.5kg | $41.00 |
| 2 | Frank Express | 1 | Bradley Shane Rantall | A Rosolini | 69.5kg | ||
| 5 | Palentino Heights | 2 | Thomas Smith Carberry | Thomas Carberry | 69.5kg | ||
| 6 | Royal Gala | 10 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 69.5kg | ||
| 10 | Zikron | 3 | Tom Ryan | Jessica Pateman | 69.5kg |
The clear class and form runner. The 76kg is the only real query; the form case comfortably outweighs it.
Thurmond won his hurdles debut at Casterton and brings the best raw heavy-track strike rate in the race at 6: 2-1-0. The maiden-to-open class rise and untested 3600m are the checks, so play safe.
The staying credential in the race. He is honest and consistent at 33: 5-5-5, gets in 8kg below the topweight and maps midfield where Ballarat's wet-surface bias flattens.
The value angle.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Split | 2 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 76kg | $1.70 |
| 2nd | 4 | Zoom | 4 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 69.5kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Embezzler | 5 | Arron Lynch | Symon Wilde | 72.5kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 7 | High Heeled | 6 | Jordan Hart | Joanne Mugavin | 65kg | $51.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Lodbrok | 3 | Tom Ryan | Andrew Bobbin | 68kg | $9.00 |
| 3 | Thurmond | 1 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 71.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Cherokee Brave | 7 | Martin Kelly | Ms B Simpson | 66.5kg |
Untethered is the most progressive jumper in a tiny field. He has won his last two, both over ground, including a Heavy 10 Hamilton hurdle where The Cunning Fox also raced, and he backs up seven days after humping 70.5kg to victory at Casterton. Today he gets a 5.5kg drop to 65kg while The Cunning Fox shoulders 69.5kg — a 4.5kg turnaround. His heavy-track record (8:2-3-0) and handy racing pattern from barrier 3 suit the slow tempo and Ballarat's on-pace, position-at-the-400m bias perfectly.
He must give 4.5kg to all three rivals in bottomless Heavy 9 ground at 3250m, where weight bites hardest, and he is a 35-day-fresh 8-year-old.
Flashlight is the only genuine forward runner in the field and from barrier 1 should dictate a slow tempo, which is exactly the profile the Ballarat 400m-position bias rewards. Place claims on the map, but the going is a genuine unknown.
He has already won a hurdle over this precise course and distance at Ballarat, and won a Warrnambool hurdle on Heavy 8 carrying 70kg — today he gets in at the 65kg minimum. His heavy-track record reads 4 starts for a win, a second and a third. Recent flat runs read poorly but jumpers routinely underperform between hurdle campaigns.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | The Cunning Fox | 4 | Tom Ryan | Patrick Payne | 69.5kg | $1.60 |
| 2nd | 2 | Bitcoin | 2 | Will Gordon | Jessica Pateman | 65kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Untethered | 3 | Darryl Horner | P Kearney | 65kg | $3.40 |
| Scr | 4 | Flashlight | 1 | Dean Parker | Patrick Payne | 65kg |
The most proven jumper in a modest steeple field. He has held form since, running third at Casterton over 3800m under 72kg, and drops 2.5kg.
Six years old with only four jumps starts, he is the least exposed of the genuine chances and heading in the right direction.
The most reliable place proposition in the race. Raise The Note has placed at seven of her twelve jumps starts, including a second over 3600m at Coleraine last month and a third on Heavy 10 at Warrnambool. She maps as the only genuine leader in a race the speed map says has no pacemaker, and a slow tempo lets her dictate. The light weight of 65.5kg is a real edge on a Heavy 9. The obvious flaw is a total inability to convert — no wins from twelve jumps starts — so this is strictly a placing play.
Goondiwindi completed at Casterton over 3800m last start and won a Traralgon barrier trial in July, so fitness and stamina are covered. Bottom weight of 65kg on a Heavy 9 is worth something in a slog, and barrier 3 gives him the handy position that matters most here.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Bazini | 2 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 69.5kg | $3.80 |
| 2nd | 3 | Fierce Flight | 4 | Luca Remondet | M W Walker | 67kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 5 | Benbulben | 7 | Jordan Hart | Jessica Pateman | 65kg | $16.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Goondiwindi | 3 | Tom Ryan | Jessica Pateman | 65kg | $9.50 |
| 2 | Charlie Messy Hair | 5 | Will Gordon | Jessica Pateman | 67kg | ||
| Scr | 4 | Raise The Note | 6 | Martin Kelly | Shane Jackson | 65.5kg | |
| 7 | Broadfield | 1 | Bradley Shane Rantall | A Rosolini | 65kg |
His Heavy track record of 11 starts for 5 wins and 4 placings is the deepest wet profile in the field, and he beat this style of opposition last start over 4200m at Sandown-Lakeside on Heavy 8. Jumps record of 6:4-2-0 with Tom Ryan (3 from 5 on him) is elite. Only 17 career starts at six years old fits the progressive Ballarat winner profile.
The classiest wet-track stayer in the race and the only runner to have won two steeples this preparation, including the 4200m at Sandown-Lakeside a fortnight ago. Patrick Payne's jumpers are always primed for this.
The most credentialled steeplechaser in the field on raw jumps record, with three steeple wins from his past four attempts over the bigger fences and a solid second over 3172m on Heavy 10 last start. He maps to lead or sit outside from barrier 4, which is the pattern Ballarat rewards on rain-affected ground where the 400m position is the durable signal. The jockey switch from Dean Parker to Arron Lynch, winless in 20, is the clear negative and the reason he sits third rather than higher.
The overlay of the race. At 64kg he is the best weighted runner in the field, worth lengths over 4500m in a Heavy 9, and Cillin Leonard knows him intimately.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Andy Win | 7 | Tom Ryan | Shane Jackson | 67.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 7 | Mr Lincoln | 5 | Cillin Leonard | C P Ryan | 64kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 1 | Sing For Peace | 10 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 69kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 8 | Christmas | 6 | Darryl Horner | P A Preusker | 64kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Saint Eustace | 3 | Luca Remondet | Jessica Pateman | 64kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Hit The Road Jack | 8 | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | 66kg | $4.80 |
| 7th | 10 | Mungerannie | 1 | David Mulcahy | Amy McDonald | 64kg | $101.00 |
| 3 | Golden Garden | 4 | Arron Lynch | Symon Wilde | 66kg | ||
| 5 | The Mighty Spar | 2 | Jordan Hart | M W Walker | 66kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Ardakan | 9 | Martin Kelly | C Maher | 64kg |
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