Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Sunday 16 August 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 8 races at Taupo. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
He has contested Listed grade previously, which gives a class edge in a maiden, and Reliable Man should help him see out 1800m. Barrier 7 is workable at Taupo, and while jockey Rooke hasn't won here, he is riding well. The main risks are maiden status and no distance experience, but the profile fits the track's classier/lightly-raced winner lean.
The query is the wide gate and the step to 1800m from a miler's pedigree, and she is winless after four starts.
Platinum Patch comes off a solid second on the Cambridge synthetic and has shown he can handle soft ground, placing at Matamata earlier in the campaign. So You Think blood gives optimism for the extended trip. The knock is that his turf form is patchy and the Cameron stable combination hasn't fired, so he is a place play behind the two principals rather than a win selection.
Dido Belle has been a model of consistency without winning, finishing fourth in two wet-track 1600m maidens before this. Matthew Cartwright's excellent 33% strike rate at Taupo is a significant positive, and Redwood breeding points to 1800m being within range.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Platinum Patch | 8 | Matthew Cameron | Ms C Cameron | 58.5kg | $7.20 |
| 2nd | 5 | Casa Rubick | 1 | Joe Doyle | Tim & Margaret Carter | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Escape Room | 7 | George Rooke | Maxim & Samantha Van Lierde | 58.5kg | $4.40 |
| 4th | 8 | Mahina | 2 | Ashlee Strawbridge | I L George | 55.5kg | $69.20 |
| 5th | 4 | Wave Ruler | 5 | Erin M Leighton | R S Manning | 58.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 3 | The Darzi | 11 | Craig Grylls | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 58.5kg | $2.60 |
| 7th | 11 | Dido Belle | 12 | Matthew Cartwright | S L Crawford | 56.5kg | $10.80 |
| 8th | 10 | The Tumbling Paddy | 3 | Jasmine Fawcett | M L Rogers | 58.5kg | $56.80 |
| 9th | 13 | Another Code | 6 | Abinith Simon | T J Perry | 52kg | $70.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Wave | 9 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos | 56.5kg | $14.70 |
| 11th | 9 | Scipio | 4 | Joe Nishizuka | S Ralph | 55.5kg | $96.40 |
| Scr | 6 | Our Boy Archie | 10 | Lynsey Satherley | K R Hercock | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Just A Littletipsy | 13 | T R Powell | 58.5kg |
Rosina is the clear form anchor at Taupo. She has won on this track over 1800m, handles Soft ground well, and has placed in seven of her last ten starts. The 54kg weight and barrier 5 give her every chance from a handy trail. Main concern is she often places rather than wins, but this race sets up for her.
Air Dancer has the wet-track credentials and recent consistency to threaten. He won on Soft 7 over 2060m in May and followed with a solid Bench 80 placing over 2000m on synthetic. He has no Taupo form and his rider is winless at the track, but his racing pattern suits an even 1800m and he should be finishing hard.
Los Salsero is a progressive Frankel gelding who has already won over this exact trip on Soft 7. The wide gate and quiet recent jockey form are negatives, but class and distance suitability give him a clear place chance.
He showed he can handle wet turf with a third in a Heavy 10 Bench 75 at Tauranga, and his rider knows him well from a synthetic maiden win.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Rosina | 5 | Rihaan Goyaram | Ben & Ryan Foote | 54kg | $4.50 |
| 2nd | 3 | Los Salsero | 8 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $5.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Erase | 6 | Joe Nishizuka | S Ralph | 54kg | $13.20 |
| 4th | 7 | Romanin | 4 | Hayley Hassman | S Ramsay & J Ritchie | 55kg | $10.30 |
| 5th | 1 | Robbie Burns | 1 | Erin M Leighton | Kevin & Annette Hinton | 59kg | $3.60 |
| 6th | 6 | Lae Zee | 3 | Hyeontaek Oh | S N Rees | 56.5kg | $30.60 |
| 7th | 5 | Empressive | 2 | Samantha Collett | B H King | 56.5kg | $5.10 |
| 8th | 2 | Air Dancer | 7 | George Rooke | G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale | 58.5kg | $9.20 |
Kinnaird is the clear class horse of the race, having won a Group 2 at Ellerslie and an 1100m Open at Otaki. He has won his only first-up start and already has a Soft-track victory. The 181-day layoff and 59kg are the main queries, and Kyle Wilson-Taylor is riding below his best, but if the stable has Kinnaird ready this is the most likely winner.
He is 2:1-0-1 on Soft and won his maiden on Soft7, so conditions suit. He is the main threat to Kinnaird but looks slightly underpriced.
Out Of The Blue has genuine claims as a stablemate to Kinnaird: he was third in a Listed 1100m on Soft5 and second in a Group 3 on Heavy9, so his wet-track form is better than his bare Soft record suggests. The query is his winless record on Soft going and whether he is ready after 118 days. From barrier 2 he should get every chance and rates the place portion of exotics.
He opened his career with a second on Soft 7 at Matamata before a poor second-up run at Ruakaka. He now has the rail, drops to 55kg and has had 13 days to bounce back.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Fortunato | 3 | Craig Grylls | Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos | 56kg | $5.10 |
| 2nd | 4 | Honorable | 1 | Hayley Hassman | P Pertab | 55kg | $8.20 |
| 3rd | 6 | El Aye | 5 | Samantha Collett | Peter & Shaun Mckay | 56kg | $7.70 |
| 4th | 2 | Out Of The Blue | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 58kg | $4.90 |
| 5th | 5 | Samurai Sword | 4 | George Rooke | Ms P Gerard | 56kg | $10.90 |
| 6th | 3 | Honour Roll | 7 | Michael Mc Nab | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57kg | $3.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Kinnaird | 6 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 59kg | $6.20 |
| Scr | 8 | Rough 'n' Tough | 8 | Matthew Cameron | Andrew Forsman | 56kg |
Arrazola is the most reliable winning chance: both starts over 1400m on Soft have been within three lengths of the winner and she resumes from a spell for one of New Zealand's leading stables. The main query is first-up fitness, but the stable, draw and distance form combine to make her the horse to beat in an open maiden.
Scutalong has the strongest distance form of the main chances, including a narrow third over 1400m on Soft and a competitive fourth at the same trip. He shapes as a prominent first-up runner from an inside-midfield gate.
Quenza is the stablemate with the best draw and an elite booking in Michael McNab. Her two Soft-track runs were only moderate, but she was far from disgraced and should have improvement as a 4-year-old mare resuming for a top stable. Barrier 1 is a genuine Taupo positive.
Want More is the value runner. Pike and Collett combine at a strong strike rate, and a four-year-old mare with one plain debut can improve sharply with fitness and the rise to 1400m. She is not as reliable as the top three but offers the best risk-reward.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Tartan Shocka | 10 | Erin M Leighton | Kevin & Annette Hinton | 58.5kg | $9.30 |
| 2nd | 7 | Prominere | 5 | Joe Doyle | S & K Alexander | 56.5kg | $14.90 |
| 3rd | 8 | Arrazola | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 56.5kg | $3.50 |
| 4th | 4 | Bacana | 3 | Jasmine Fawcett | A Oliveira | 58.5kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 9 | Quenza | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 56.5kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 1 | Bunker Hill | 8 | Munna Alam | Ms M Falconer | 58.5kg | $11.20 |
| 7th | 11 | Millennium Magic | 12 | Lynsey Satherley | Ms C Cameron | 56.5kg | $23.90 |
| 8th | 12 | Omalish | 9 | Courtney Barnes | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $42.10 |
| 9th | 2 | Scutalong | 7 | Craig Grylls | Peter & Shaun Mckay | 58.5kg | $5.30 |
| 10th | 10 | Want More | 4 | Samantha Collett | A W Pike | 56.5kg | $12.30 |
| 11th | 5 | Sneaky Duck | 11 | Hayley Hassman | M L Rogers | 57.5kg | $46.90 |
| Scr | 6 | Artissimo | 6 | Matthew Cameron | Andrew Forsman | 56.5kg |
Camila is the most reliable form runner in an open maiden. The inside draw is a plus at Taupo. Her soft-track form is only fair, but she meets a weak and largely unexposed field.
However, Taupo maidens are notoriously open and favourited debutants underperform here. I respect the horse but cannot make it the top pick without form evidence. A place chance at best.
Zippidy showed genuine ability when third in an Open 1100m at Te Rapa and has placed first-up before. She returns from a spell for a strong stable carrying only 54kg from a good gate. The 1000m trip is new and Soft7 is a query, but in a volatile maiden her class edge makes her the best threat to the top pick.
Tiago is the value runner. His two career placings both came on Soft going at 1200m, which translates well to today's Soft7 surface, and he has shown a first-up placing pattern.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Cape Reinga | 8 | Michael Mc Nab | A W Pike | 58.5kg | $1.90 |
| 2nd | 5 | Camila | 3 | Craig Grylls | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56.5kg | $7.30 |
| 3rd | 1 | Tiago | 7 | Joe Nishizuka | P A Stevens | 55.5kg | $7.80 |
| 4th | 4 | Suave | 14 | Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos | 58.5kg | $24.40 | |
| 5th | 10 | Levarti | 1 | Jasmine Fawcett | K & B Kelso | 54kg | $4.80 |
| 6th | 2 | Red Wings | 11 | Samantha Collett | J C Collett | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 13 | Chizara | 2 | Hayley Hassman | Peter & Shaun Mckay | 55.5kg | $57.80 |
| 8th | 16 | Unique Valor | 13 | L Te Keeti | 58.5kg | $43.30 | |
| 9th | 15 | Lovegrove | 10 | S R Autridge | 56.5kg | $27.50 | |
| 10th | 14 | Wantanotherround | 12 | Lynsey Satherley | V A Prendergast | 56.5kg | $164.10 |
| Scr | 6 | Lassie | 9 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Affaire D'amour | 4 | Rihaan Goyaram | R R Manning | 54.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Zippidy | 5 | George Rooke | Andrew Forsman | 54kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Baia Serena | 15 | Andrew Forsman | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Rhaena | 6 | Joe Doyle | Andrew Forsman | 54kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Molto Spirito | 13 | Andrew Forsman | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | New Regime | 11 | Barry Donoghue | 58.5kg |
Clearly the highest-class runner, dropping from G1/G2 company to BM75. Has a Listed win over 1400m on Soft7 and a G2 placing, so the class edge is decisive. Barrier 1, top jockey and strong stable. The only concern is 160-day first-up and a 0-for-3 first-up record, but against these rivals he can win fresh.
Jaeger arrives on the back of a last-start win in BM65 on Soft5 and has been consistent through the winter. His 1400m record is solid and the Grylls/Patterson combination is a positive.
Florin comes here on the back of a close second in a BM75 over 1400m on Heavy10 and has a Listed fourth on Soft7 to provide a wet-track reference. Her record is better on Heavy than genuine Soft, but she maps well from barrier 3 and has enough class to fill a place. Likely to be running on late in a small field.
He has placed in BM75 company before and maps well from barrier 2.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Jaeger | 5 | Craig Grylls | Robbie Patterson | 56kg | $4.30 |
| 2nd | 4 | Florin | 3 | Hayley Hassman | M D Wallace | 56kg | $4.70 |
| 3rd | 3 | Towering Vision | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57.5kg | $2.90 |
| 4th | 7 | Digger | 6 | Ashlee Strawbridge | D B Hollinshead | 52.5kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Super Wraith | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | R R Manning | 56kg | $14.30 |
| 6th | 8 | Smart Tip | 4 | Joe Nishizuka | S Ralph | 51kg | $34.60 |
| 7th | 2 | Enright | 8 | Erin M Leighton | R S Manning | 59kg | $22.20 |
| 8th | 1 | Kaimai Queen | 7 | Rihaan Goyaram | G J Old | 59kg | $11.60 |
Miss Janet is the clear form anchor: her only two starts produced a maiden placing and a Listed win on Soft5, and she has placed in both starts on rain-affected ground. She also draws the prized inside gate at Taupo. Michael McNab retains the ride and is in good form.
Pounce returned from a spell to win convincingly over this exact 1100m trip on Soft5 at Ellerslie, and her first-up record includes a win. She is proven over the trip and handles cut in the ground, while Craig Grylls is in reasonable touch.
Shamelia Kirk has placed in all three starts, highlighted by a second in a Listed race on Heavy10. She has won on heavy ground and placed on soft, so Soft7 should suit. The outside draw and lack of a 1100m win are negatives, but her consistency and proven black-type competitiveness make her a solid place chance.
Lassified is a Listed winner over this 1100m trip on Soft5 and boasts a 2-from-3 record on soft ground. She has won first-up before and drops back from Group 1 and Randwick company to a more suitable Listed level.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Hawea | 15 | Wiremu Pinn | G Richardson & R Norvall | 56.5kg | $15.20 |
| 2nd | 14 | Phillyjean | 14 | Sam McNab | Samantha Logan | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Latoya | 7 | Masahiro Hashizume | K & B Kelso | 56.5kg | $5.70 |
| 4th | 16 | Tip Top | 5 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $86.20 |
| 5th | 6 | Dashing Dixie | 8 | Joe Doyle | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56.5kg | $12.30 |
| 6th | 9 | Pounce | 9 | Craig Grylls | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56.5kg | $4.80 |
| 7th | 1 | Miss Janet | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $3.20 |
| 8th | 11 | State The Obvious | 3 | Warren Kennedy | G Richardson & R Norvall | 56.5kg | $20.20 |
| 9th | 8 | O'baby | 4 | George Rooke | K A Pertab | 56.5kg | $24.90 |
| 10th | 2 | Back Of The Bus | 13 | Lisa Allpress | A W Pike | 56.5kg | $21.40 |
| 11th | 15 | Femme Fatale | 12 | Jasmine Fawcett | Peter & Shaun Mckay | 56.5kg | $25.70 |
| Scr | 4 | Lassified | 6 | Matthew Cartwright | Andrew Forsman | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Shamelia Kirk | 11 | Matthew Cameron | Robbie Patterson | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Silhouette | 10 | Samantha Collett | T W Cole | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Summer Schemer | 9 | S Ritchie & C Murray | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Dubawi Diva | 2 | Jack Taplin | S Ritchie & C Murray | 56.5kg |
Confectionist is the most reliable winning chance in an open Taupo BM65. She arrives fit and improving, having won last start and placed in four of her last five; the inside-ish barrier and in-form rider offset a class question.
Belle Du Monde is the clear class runner, with black-type form and a first-up win/placing record that suggests she will be ready after the break. Her knock is that she is yet to win at 1200m and Craig Grylls hasn't saluted at Taupo from 25 prior rides. If she reproduces her Riccarton fresh form, she can outclass this BM65; the place side is better value given the distance and track concerns.
Los Santos maps ideally from barrier 1 and should take big improvement from his first-up seventh when he had no luck from gate 19. He has genuine soft-track form and has mixed in Listed company when things went right. The main negatives are an ordinary recent jockey strike-rate and no wins at the trip, but his tactical position and second-up pattern make him the best of the rest.
Empirical is the value runner in an open Taupo BM65. He is a lightly raced, classy type dropping from Open to BM65 company, drawn perfectly in gate 2, and his only win came on Soft.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Empirical | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | S Ramsay & J Ritchie | 59kg | $4.30 |
| 2nd | 3 | Los Santos | 1 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | Peter & Shaun Mckay | 58kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 9 | Starlit Express | 9 | George Rooke | A W Pike | 56kg | $13.50 |
| 4th | 2 | Belle Du Monde | 8 | Craig Grylls | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 58kg | $6.10 |
| 5th | 7 | Shuffle The Pack | 3 | Rihaan Goyaram | R R Manning | 55kg | $8.70 |
| 6th | 5 | Buccino | 6 | Joe Nishizuka | G Richardson & R Norvall | 54kg | $13.90 |
| 7th | 6 | Confectionist | 4 | Michael Mc Nab | S B Marsh | 57kg | $7.20 |
| 8th | 8 | Poppa Dennis | 7 | Jasmine Fawcett | M L Rogers | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Return Message | 5 | Jack Taplin | S Ralph | 52.5kg | $35.20 |
| 10th | 4 | Madame Kiwi | 10 | Ashlee Strawbridge | Debbie Sweeney | 54.5kg | $22.50 |
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