Hawkesbury tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.60 · Tyler Schiller

Tyler Schiller's 14% record for the stable is a positive signal. Sound each-way value rather than a confident win play.

Our price $9.00 · SP $26.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Kris Lees, a 2kg claim taking him to 55.5kg, and a rider striking at 14% at Hawkesbury add substance.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Tim Clark

The one genuine leader in a field with no other confirmed pace, drawn barrier 3 and ridden by Tim Clark. Hawkesbury on Soft is unforgiving to backmarkers and rewards runners sitting top three at the 400m, so an uncontested lead is a real weapon here. His Soft record of 6 starts for a win and a placing is the soundest wet profile among the chances. Against him: he is first up from 148 days with an 0-for-2 fresh record, and he is an exposed 9-start horse with only one win.

Our price $3.40 · SP $2.15 · Chad Schofield

Highborn Harry is the most reliable horse in the race on consistency - twelve thirds and five seconds from 37 starts - and his last-start 3rd here over 1800m on Soft reads well. But he has no wins from nine attempts at the trip, none from seven at Hawkesbury, and just three career wins at an 8% strike. He also maps behind them into a slow tempo at a track that punishes backmarkers.

Our price $6.50 · SP $11.00 · Jean Van Overmeire

The most lightly raced and highest-strike-rate runner in the race, with a wet-track profile that stands out - three wins from eight Soft starts and a win from his only Heavy run.

Our price $16.00 · SP $41.00 · Winona Costin

A pure tactical value play. She is the only genuine leader in a field the speed map projects to run slowly, at a track where Soft-track leaders win about 25% and runners in the top three at the 400m dominate. Her Soft record of one win, two seconds and one third from fifteen starts, plus the minimum 55kg and a 27-day freshen, gives her a live chance of controlling the race.

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.90 · Tim Clark

The obvious improver. Esquire was third first-up at Wyong over 1100m and now steps to 1300m at his second run, which should suit a lightly-raced Exceedance colt from Ryan & Alexiou.

Our price $11.00 · SP $10.00 · Reece Jones

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.50 · Alysha Collett

The best of the trial-form brigade. That is a solid, repeatable line through the race. Gate 5, a stable that gets maidens ready and a jockey in excellent touch add up. Lack of any race-day form is the reservation, so he rates a strong place chance rather than the top win pick.

Our price $6.00 · SP $11.00

The value angle in a race full of unraced and trial-only types.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.60 · Tim Clark

Any return to that level wins a provincial maiden comfortably.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

The overlay of the race. Blinkers coming off with a first-time tongue tie is a purposeful change, McEvoy stays on, and barrier 2 gives him the forward position Hawkesbury demands. The 59kg is the main brake.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · James Mc Donald

The negatives are real: 60.5kg top weight, first-up from 130 days, and a sharp drop back from 3200m to a mile at a track that punishes backmarkers. McDonald's 31% Hawkesbury strike rate and the sheer class edge keep him a genuine threat.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.00 · Dylan Gibbons

Consistent mare who maps beautifully from barrier 5 for a track that rewards runners projecting top three at the 400m. The Maher/Gibbons combination strikes at 17%.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Robyn Freeman

Light at 55.5kg from gate 5, she maps to sit on or just off the speed — exactly the position that wins 22% of Soft races here.