Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Thursday 20 August 2026
Our top pick won 5 of 8 races at Warrnambool. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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The class and heavy-ground yardstick of the race. His record on heavy reads 2 starts for 2 seconds — no wins, but no other runner here can match that wet-track competitiveness. Payne/Gordon is a strong country combination and the horse maps handy.
The wet-ground specialist of the field. His record on heavy is 4 starts for one second and one third, and he has already placed at this exact track and distance, running third over 2000m on a Heavy 10 in July. Barrier 3 lets Parker hold a forward position into the short straight, which is the decisive factor at Warrnambool on heavy.
The unknowns are genuine: no starts on heavy and a first crack at 2000m. Solid each-way claims rather than a confident winning play.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Mission Taichi | 7 | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | 69.5kg | $2.05 |
| 2nd | 5 | Hemi Two Barrell | 4 | Martin Kelly | Shane Jackson | 69.5kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Grinding Away | 8 | Micheal Casey | Michele Denham | 69.5kg | $17.00 |
| 4th | 6 | I'mnodrummerboy | 3 | Dean Parker | Amy Small | 69.5kg | $3.30 |
| 5th | 1 | Bouchereign | 9 | Arron Lynch | Andrew Bobbin | 69.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Patriot Wolf | 10 | Luca Remondet | Brian Lawlor | 69.5kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 4 | Helter Peltzer | 2 | Darryl Horner | Chris Calthorpe | 69.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Vicain | 5 | Bradley Shane Rantall | Clint Marshall | 69.5kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Fierce Fiasco | 6 | Cillin Leonard | Andrew Noblet | 69.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | It Grows On Trees | 1 | Daniel Small | Amy McDonald | 69.5kg |
The form standout. Reddivo won over 3172m at this track on a Heavy 10 last start, beating them by 12 lengths, and that is effectively the same assignment today. The 14kg weight swing and barrier 7 are genuine concerns on a bog track, but no rival has anything approaching this level of wet staying evidence. Class and stamina outweigh the map.
The tactical key. With zero genuine leaders engaged, Matthew Mark is the one runner mapped to control a slow-run 3100m on a Heavy 8, and Warrnambool heavy data is emphatic that the front three at the 400m dominate. He won here over 2000m on Heavy 10 in June humping 71kg, so 67.5kg today is well within range, and barrier 2 is perfect.
The wet-track specialist of the field on raw numbers, with 13 heavy starts producing 2 wins and 5 further placings. He ran a solid third at Geelong on Heavy 8 only five days ago and has won this preparation, so he arrives fit and adaptable to the conditions with the equal-lightest weight. The class rise is meaningful and the low career strike rate plus a jockey without a win at the track from 26 rides temper enthusiasm, but he maps close enough and handles the mud better than most.
He is second up from a spell, where his record reads 1 win from 1 start, drops sharply in class and has the ideal barrier one draw for a heavy Warrnambool.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Reddivo | 7 | Will Gordon | Jamie Edwards | 68.5kg | $1.95 |
| 2nd | 3 | Matthew Mark | 2 | Darryl Horner | Ms C Graesser | 67.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Smokin' Rohie | 5 | Luca Remondet | Nell Carter | 65kg | $6.50 |
| 4th | 4 | Red Aces | 4 | Martin Kelly | R J Blacker | 67.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Kicking King | 1 | Thomas Smith Carberry | Thomas Carberry | 69kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Tosen Glory | 6 | Arron Lynch | K T Bourke | 65kg | $5.50 |
| 7th | 7 | El Amigos | 3 | Micheal Casey | M W Greig | 65kg | $151.00 |
Barrier 4 lets him sit in the front three by the 400m, which is the decisive position at Warrnambool on heavy. The Heavy 10 flop here in July is a caution, but Heavy 8 is a materially different surface and his Geelong Heavy 8 run proves he handles it.
The clear improver of the race. Her Casterton third was the first time she has looked like a maiden winner, and the lift from 1200m to 1400m produced it - the further step to 1700m should suit again. Barrier 3 is ideal for a track and surface that demands a forward position by the 400m, and 57.5kg is a workable weight. The concerns are genuine: no race experience on heavy, an untried trip, and a stable-jockey combination without a win. She was also beaten by the top pick at these relative weights, which is why she rates second.
The step to 1700m off an Almanzor pedigree should help.
The best genuine value on offer. His debut 4th over 1600m at Hamilton on a Heavy 10, beaten five lengths, is the closest match in the entire field to today's conditions - a staying trip in a bog. Fiorente stock characteristically improve at their second start and with more ground, and at 57.0kg with Tom Madden aboard the intent is clear.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Hill Cry | 3 | Melissa Julius | Nell Carter | 57.5kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Alltogethernow | 6 | Will Gordon | M A Townsend | 59.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 2 | Fiorowngood | 4 | Jack Hill | Symon Wilde | 59.5kg | $2.60 |
| 4th | 8 | Winter Arc | 7 | Tom Madden | P F Ryan | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 5th | 3 | The Noble Steed | 1 | Craig Atkinson | P R Gray | 59.5kg | $151.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Staff Writer | 8 | Christine Puls | Luke Williams | 57.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Vonnfire | 2 | Fred W Kersley | Chris Calthorpe | 57kg | $81.00 |
| Scr | 5 | His Lady Bay | 5 | Teodore Nugent | Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell | 57.5kg |
That is comfortably the best form reference in this maiden. He now draws barrier 1, which is precisely the profile Warrnambool's heavy track rewards, where being in the front three at the 400m is the dominant winning signal. The Maher stable and John Allen booking reinforce intent. He is unproven on Heavy 8 and shoulders 59.5kg, but on class, recency and map he is the most likely winner.
The Patrick Payne / Billy Egan combination at 30% is the strongest connections signal in the race, and Egan's 23% Warrnambool record adds weight. Barrier 3 and 57.5kg let her take a forward position, which is essential on this circuit in Heavy 8. She is untried on Heavy, so place cover is the sensible approach.
Linda Meech's booking for Tom Dabernig is a genuine positive given her 14% strike rate at Warrnambool. Reliable enough to be placed but the maiden non-winner tag caps enthusiasm.
King Snitz is unraced with no published history, so under the insufficient-form rule he is assessed on proxies rather than downgraded for missing data. The Declan Bates booking, a senior rider with 8 wins from 77 at Warrnambool, alongside the lightest weight in the race at 57.0kg, points to a stable that expects a competitive first-up showing. High variance, so each-way is the appropriate structure.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Mr Sioux | 1 | John Allen | C Maher | 59.5kg | $1.45 |
| 2nd | 8 | Just My Lot | 5 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Lune Lumineuse | 3 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 7 | All Moonlite | 10 | Jack Hill | Symon Wilde | 57.5kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Tamwood | 2 | Christine Puls | Luke Williams | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Tempered Edge | 11 | Fred W Kersley | R J Blacker | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Spotlight On Curly | 8 | Tayla Childs | Rene Pompe | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Jax Gold | 9 | Brendon Newport | S R Fisher | 59.5kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 1 | A Little Reward | 4 | Shayleigh Ingelse | S R Fisher | 56.5kg | $151.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Mychemicalromanze | 6 | Campbell Rawiller | Luke Williams | 59.5kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 11 | King Snitz | 7 | Declan Bates | Shane Jackson | 57kg |
The clear form horse. Barrier 11 is the sole genuine worry.
Against him: no heavy-track experience, 59.5kg topweight and a jockey out of touch.
The Caulfield Heath trial was only fair, and with no heavy-track evidence and barrier 7 to overcome on a Heavy 9, this is a leap of faith on the stable rather than proven form. Place cover only.
Barrier 9 means Yendall must work to hold a spot by the 400m, the position that decides races here.
Assessed under the debutant proxy framework given zero public form. Absence of data is not penalised, but nor can it be rewarded beyond this, and a Heavy 8 debut adds real risk. Worth including at each-way terms rather than to win.
The overlay. She is the only runner mapped to lead in a race the speed map calls a slow tempo, and at Warrnambool on Heavy going, front-three position at the 400m is the single biggest winning signal.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Empress Rossa | 11 | Linda Meech | Symon Wilde | 57.5kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 2 | Northern Gold | 10 | Will Gordon | James McNamara | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Louella Fly | 2 | Teodore Nugent | Tom Dabernig | 55kg | $4.80 |
| 4th | 7 | Tikiela | 6 | Chelsea Thompson | S R Fisher | 54.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Hiney's Bar | 4 | Jack Hill | Symon Wilde | 59.5kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Mai | 8 | Kate Walters | Bob & Kane Post | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Pipoli Diva | 5 | Fred W Kersley | R J Blacker | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Nimbina | 1 | Brendon Newport | S R Fisher | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 8 | Run Willy Run | 7 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 57kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Saintly Dancer | 9 | Dean Yendall | C Maher | 55kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Secret Crossing | 3 | Declan Bates | Shane Jackson | 55kg |
He has a win and a placing from four Warrnambool starts and two placings from four heavy runs. From barrier 7 he can take up a forward position, which is decisive at this track in the wet where the front three at the 400m dominate. The 61kg is the query, but proven wet-track form at the exact venue outweighs it.
The improver of the race. Cinnamon Kiss broke through on a Heavy 10 at Hamilton last start after a close second in similar going, and her wet record of a win and a placing from two starts is the strongest in the field on a percentage basis. Meech stays on for the in-form Dabernig yard and barrier 6 allows a handy position, critical at Warrnambool in the wet.
Her heavy record includes a win, and barrier 3 gives Newitt every chance to hold the forward position that decides races here in the wet.
Cool As Ice owns the strongest heavy-track credentials in the field with two wins and a placing from six wet starts, and the highest career win rate here at 27%. Today she draws barrier 1, precisely the setup Warrnambool on Heavy 8 rewards, and can take up a forward spot.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Cinnamon Kiss | 6 | Linda Meech | Tom Dabernig | 56.5kg | $3.80 |
| 2nd | 2 | Moonraker | 7 | Will Gordon | Daniel Bowman | 61kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 6 | Dynamite Dancer | 2 | Dean Yendall | M J Williams | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 4 | Shout Me | 9 | Brad Rawiller | Bob & Kane Post | 60.5kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Thaimor | 5 | Jack Hill | Simon Ryan | 56.5kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 7 | Frosty Night | 8 | Sarah Field | Jamie Barry | 54kg | $81.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Imminance | 3 | Fred W Kersley | Aaron Laing | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Tango Jewel | 10 | Chelsea Thompson | Jamie Edwards | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Cool As Ice | 1 | Teodore Nugent | Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell | 60.5kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Princess Mess | 11 | Billy Egan | Patrick Payne | 59kg | $12.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Hellfire Jess | 4 | Tom Madden | Tom Dabernig | 55.5kg |
Iberian Lynx marries the exact profile Warrnambool heavy demands: a proven Heavy-9, 1400m winner from an ideal inside barrier who consistently races forward. His placings record (50%) and improving trajectory outweigh the step up in class.
The wide-ish barrier is the only blemish against an otherwise ideal profile; his sit-forward racing style has proven capable of overcoming it before at this course.
A slight dip last start (still only beaten 6 lengths) doesn't change an otherwise ideal profile for this specific heavy-track puzzle.
The most condition-specific runner in the race. Her record at this track and distance is 4 starts for 2 wins, her heavy record is 9 starts for 3 wins and a third, and she won a Bench.62 over this trip on Heavy 8 at Casterton in July before a solid third at Bendigo over 1400m. Warrnambool on heavy demands front-three position at the 400m and she is a natural on-pacer at her pet distance. Barrier 16 is the obvious flaw, but the lone-leader map means she can push forward without a costly speed duel.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Big Rooster | 11 | Jack Hill | Symon Wilde | 60.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 9 | Terralight | 7 | Teodore Nugent | Tom Dabernig | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | King Camelot | 14 | Linda Meech | P A Preusker | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Kingsford | 8 | Dean Yendall | M J Williams | 60kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 5 | Side Piece | 9 | Tom Madden | Aaron Purcell | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 14 | Elsie Girl | 4 | Christine Puls | Ms B O'Loughlin | 54kg | $71.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Unamerican | 15 | Kate Walters | M W Greig | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Formidable Force | 6 | Steven Vella | Kylie Vella | 59kg | $17.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Heed The Omens | 12 | Declan Bates | Symon Wilde | 61.5kg | $10.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Colt Forty Five | 10 | Will Gordon | Jamie Edwards | 59kg | $9.00 |
| 11th | 10 | Iberian Lynx | 3 | Alana Kelly | M, W & J Hawkes | 58kg | $9.50 |
| 12th | 11 | Parkrun | 5 | John Allen | P A Chow | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 13th | 15 | Spanish Snitzel | 1 | Melissa Julius | M W Greig | 54kg | $101.00 |
| 14th | 8 | Royal Attire | 13 | Tayla Childs | J G Brooks | 58.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 13 | Aussie Pharoah | 2 | Sarah Field | Robert Schultz | 51kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Dubai Dancer | 16 | Jade Smith | Tom Dabernig | 59.5kg |
Shamex has won both of her starts at 2000m, including a BM62 on Heavy 8 at Casterton, and then ran a close third in BM70 grade at 2050m. She drops back in class, gets in on a light 55.5kg with the claim, and maps as the lone genuine leader from barrier 6 - exactly the profile Warrnambool on heavy ground rewards, where the front three at the 400m dominate. Slow tempo further suits.
The most literal form reference in the race - he won over this exact course, distance, class and surface last start, and is now 2 from 2 at Warrnambool over 2000m. Heavy ground is clearly no issue with 2 wins and 2 seconds from 8 attempts.
The best-drawn runner in the race and a proven heavy-track winner over this trip, having taken out a BM62 at Seymour on Heavy 9 in July. Barrier 1 allows him to take a forward position without expending energy, which matters enormously here.
Overpriced on the strength of her Wagga run, where she finished third in BM74 grade over 2000m on a Heavy 8 - a form line clearly superior to today's BM62. She has the field's best distance record at 8 starts for 2 wins, drops 3kg, and draws barrier 4 with a rider striking at 23% here.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Shamex | 6 | Shayleigh Ingelse | P A Preusker | 55.5kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Astradeel | 12 | Will Gordon | Adam Chambers | 65.5kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Bellonado | 11 | Caitlin Hollowood | M J Williams | 61kg | $4.40 |
| 4th | 12 | Highland Glory | 7 | Alana Kelly | Dan O'Sullivan | 55.5kg | $20.00 |
| 5th | 9 | First Day | 4 | Billy Egan | Ben Brisbourne | 58kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Semper Fortis | 2 | Campbell Rawiller | Symon Wilde | 60.5kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Governor King | 1 | John Allen | Henry Dwyer | 61kg | $5.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Sir Rockford | 5 | Tom Madden | Aaron Laing | 60kg | $7.50 |
| 9th | 8 | Star Of Rossa | 10 | Dean Yendall | M J Williams | 58.5kg | $18.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Amphactor | 8 | Brad Rawiller | Mark & Levi Kavanagh | 60kg | |
| Scr | 10 | He's Electric | 13 | Kate Walters | M W Greig | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Limosa | 3 | Teodore Nugent | Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell | 57kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Frankie's Me Dad | 9 | Tayla Childs | Chris Calthorpe | 54kg |
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